WI: Napoleon winning Waterloo?

The powers in 1815 did not see popular support as the criterion of legitimacy.
Well they kind of did; the Allies in 1814 agreed that the Bourbons would only be allowed to return to France if the French people showed considerable support for a restored kingdom, and in 1815, Alexander and Metternich both bowed to French public opinion in their offer of legitimating the Bonaparte dynasty (while still insisting on Napoleon's exile).
 
Well they kind of did; the Allies in 1814 agreed that the Bourbons would only be allowed to return to France if the French people showed considerable support for a restored kingdom, and in 1815, Alexander and Metternich both bowed to French public opinion in their offer of legitimating the Bonaparte dynasty (while still insisting on Napoleon's exile).
I'm pretty shere nobody in France wanted the burbans back, orlionist maby but the French as a whole even after Napoleon lost and had dragged France to the worst point in it's history still considered him for lagitamint then any French marnarchy.
 
I'm pretty shere nobody in France wanted the burbans back, orlionist maby but the French as a whole even after Napoleon lost and had dragged France to the worst point in it's history still considered him for lagitamint then any French marnarchy.
As David already explained in his posit, nobody was interested in soliciting French “public opinion” in 1814 and especially 1815 so the main argument is neither here nor there. In 1815 restoration of the Bourbons was the only option seriously considered by the allies.
 
To address your points:

Opinion regarding Bertier is not mine: you can find it from quite a few authors including Caulainclurt. Yes, General Staff was not yet a well-established institution but position of the Chief of Staff assumed certain duties: the whole purpose of having it was to free army commander from the minutiae details and provide him with necessary information. Bertier at the last year’s of his career was not doing anything without explicit napoleon’s orders. Take just two examples. It would be a routine business of the chief of staff to issue the regulations regarding organization of a baggage train and all related details when the French were leaving Moscow. With a properly organized staff the arrangements would regulate things from the excessive personal luggage and all the way to the proper horseshoes. Nothing was done or rather everything was left to the corps commanders who, with the exception of Davout, also had been waiting for the imperial order. As a result, only the Guards and Davout’s corps had properly organized trains and only horses of Napoleon’s household got proper horseshoes. The results are well-known. At Leipzig it would not take a genius to understand that situation was critical so a function of a competent chief of staff would be to organize construction of the numerous crossings, even if just in case. Nothing had been done because Napoleon did not issue an order to this effect.

As for other personages, it is not a secret that Napoleon was consistently promoting the brave and lucky commanders and that, as a result, very few of them had been capable of acting independently. Your “PoD” requires the changes of the whole system going back to the time when he came to power and the thread is about him winning at Waterloo, not “what Napoleon could do differently during his rule” so we (and Nappy) are stuck with what he had at that time. You are free to start a thread which starts at any earlier point of your choice and includes different “cadres policy”.

Regarding the tactics, you are seemingly missing the point: I did not say that any of the allied generals became a tactician superior to Mapoleon (AFAIK, some British military historians think that Wellington was and Montgomery cautiously danced around that issue by saying that as a tactician the Duke was second to none). The point is that both they and their troops greatly improved. At Auerstedt Davout with a couple divisions destroyed the main Prussian army. Ligny resulted in Prussian retreat in a good order.

As far as the political aspect is involved and your argument that you did not read anything about the personal anymosity, well you can start, for example, with “Битва двух империй, 1805 - 1812” by Соколов. The subject is seemingly popular among the modern Russian historians. And I would be very careful about “none of them” thing. It is well-known fact that Alexander was quite active during 1813 - 14. In 1814 Alexander reduced function of Barclay to just carrying his orders and his what he was doing to the Russian army is a subject of an extensive record. Maybe he did not imagine himself to be a second Friederich in the terms of a generalship but he definitely exceeded his record in the terms of a drilling. Why do you think the desertion from the Russian army in 1914 amounted to the tens of thousands. Even Alexander’s brother, Constantine, who was a known martinet, confessed that he simply could not follow the avalanche of the drilling regulations.

And, sorry to tell, but generalities about the age of Enlightnment are pretty much meaningless within framework of the Russian empire of this
period. Alexander could repeat what his father said: “In Russia the only important person is one with whom I’m talking and he is important only for as long as I’m talking to him”.

Your once again making very valid points. The staff system at this time was not
To address your points:

Opinion regarding Bertier is not mine: you can find it from quite a few authors including Caulainclurt. Yes, General Staff was not yet a well-established institution but position of the Chief of Staff assumed certain duties: the whole purpose of having it was to free army commander from the minutiae details and provide him with necessary information. Bertier at the last year’s of his career was not doing anything without explicit napoleon’s orders. Take just two examples. It would be a routine business of the chief of staff to issue the regulations regarding organization of a baggage train and all related details when the French were leaving Moscow. With a properly organized staff the arrangements would regulate things from the excessive personal luggage and all the way to the proper horseshoes. Nothing was done or rather everything was left to the corps commanders who, with the exception of Davout, also had been waiting for the imperial order. As a result, only the Guards and Davout’s corps had properly organized trains and only horses of Napoleon’s household got proper horseshoes. The results are well-known. At Leipzig it would not take a genius to understand that situation was critical so a function of a competent chief of staff would be to organize construction of the numerous crossings, even if just in case. Nothing had been done because Napoleon did not issue an order to this effect.

As for other personages, it is not a secret that Napoleon was consistently promoting the brave and lucky commanders and that, as a result, very few of them had been capable of acting independently. Your “PoD” requires the changes of the whole system going back to the time when he came to power and the thread is about him winning at Waterloo, not “what Napoleon could do differently during his rule” so we (and Nappy) are stuck with what he had at that time. You are free to start a thread which starts at any earlier point of your choice and includes different “cadres policy”.

Regarding the tactics, you are seemingly missing the point: I did not say that any of the allied generals became a tactician superior to Mapoleon (AFAIK, some British military historians think that Wellington was and Montgomery cautiously danced around that issue by saying that as a tactician the Duke was second to none). The point is that both they and their troops greatly improved. At Auerstedt Davout with a couple divisions destroyed the main Prussian army. Ligny resulted in Prussian retreat in a good order.

As far as the political aspect is involved and your argument that you did not read anything about the personal anymosity, well you can start, for example, with “Битва двух империй, 1805 - 1812” by Соколов. The subject is seemingly popular among the modern Russian historians. And I would be very careful about “none of them” thing. It is well-known fact that Alexander was quite active during 1813 - 14. In 1814 Alexander reduced function of Barclay to just carrying his orders and his what he was doing to the Russian army is a subject of an extensive record. Maybe he did not imagine himself to be a second Friederich in the terms of a generalship but he definitely exceeded his record in the terms of a drilling. Why do you think the desertion from the Russian army in 1914 amounted to the tens of thousands. Even Alexander’s brother, Constantine, who was a known martinet, confessed that he simply could not follow the avalanche of the drilling regulations.

And, sorry to tell, but generalities about the age of Enlightnment are pretty much meaningless within framework of the Russian empire of this period. Alexander could repeat what his father said: “In Russia the only important person is one with whom I’m talking and he is important only for as long as I’m talking to him”.

Always interesting comments. Criticism of Berthier may be valid but not relevant to 1815 since he was dead. Most historians seem to agree Soult was ill suited to the job, and was worse then Berthier. At least Berthier wrote clear, understandable orders. I merely suggested in my Alternate History that Napoleon could have had a Chief of Staff better then Soult, and at least as competent as Berthier, I don't think that's unreasonable. Soult would have been a better field commander then Nay, and Davout would have been better then Grouchy, which is why I gave them those jobs instead. Murat was still the best cavalry commander in Europe, and was also available. He wouldn't have destroyed his magnificent mounted Corps, and would have used them to link the Right, and Left wings, as in the old days.

Though out history armies have mostly promoted the bravest officers. To say that Napoleonic France was much different than other country is not factual. Until the 20th Century generals led from the front of their troops, and suffered high losses. In the last 100 years officer KIA's are usually Lt Colonels down, generals getting killed are rare, with Russian Generals being a possible exception in WWII. The higher they were promoted more qualities of intelligence, prudence, skill, initiative, and integrity came into play, all those combined equal judgment . All armies drew from the same pools of brave, and lucky officers to promote to general rank.

In this period Russian officers had a reputation of having a very low intellectual standard, far below other European Armies. Russian Troops have always been praised for their steady courage, and ability to endure the harshest battlefield conditions, but had to deal with poor officer quality. You would be hard pressed to show that though this whole period French Officers up to Corps level were of lower quality then their counterparts. Most of this criticism stems from the allies slowly coming closer to French tactical, and operational standards. It's true that French Infantry, declined after 1807, and the Cavalry after 1812, but they still more then held their own till the end, at Waterloo.

Of course some French Corps Commanders did have poor records in independent command, and got in over their heads. McDonald comes to mind, and of course Nay's many series failures from 1813 on. Still The French even in 1815 maintained an edge. My examples of French tactical superiority at Ligny, (With proper staff work D'Erlon would have been at the right place, and time, and Blucher would have lost half his army, and been killed, or captured.) and the fact that Wellington needed to be saved by the Prussians at Waterloo support that conclusion. I was hoping you would've addressed that part of my last post.

I attribute the French defeat in the Waterloo Campaign to several factors. First poor staff work, below the standard of Berthier. The inept, and erratic leadership of Marshal Nay. The unimaginative leadership of Marshal Grouchy. These personnel choices were all the responsibility of Napoleon himself, more able men were available. Lastly Napoleon's health issues, which resulted in periods of lethargy, and hyperactivity, which I contend could have been mitigated by better subordinates. He wasn't the man he was in 1805, but then he didn't have to be, he was still better then any of his opponents, he just needed more help.

Yes I've read mostly western histories of this period, I only said I never read about Alexander being motivated by hatred of Napoleon. Russian sources may differ. Like western writers perspectives change over time. In Russia political influences have often dictated the point of view. In post Soviet times there has been an effort to rehabilitate some of the Czars, with Alexander being a great nationalist hero. Like Lincoln, Alexander tried several army commanders, and reused a few of them. Bennigsen after being defeated at Friedland was put to good use over, and over again. In 1812 Alexander bowed to pressure relieving de Tolly, even though he backed his strategy. He had no direct influence on any battle in 1812.

In 1813 he tried Wittgenstein, after his success in 1812, but lost confidence in him, returning de Tolly to general in chief. I think your taking too literally Alexanders position of commander of the coalition. de Tolly was in tactical command, although Alexander did intervene to change Schwarzenberg's terrible plan of attack at Leipzig. Alexander had some good amateur instincts, but he wasn't a professional soldier. He couldn't have taken tactical control of an army.

Another point is the historians tendency to over analyze the defeated side, to find out what was wrong with them, and explain why they lost. The Allies had the same problems that your pointing out in the French in spades. None of them, other then maybe the British had a deep bench of senior leadership. The Russians were recycling the same generals from 1805-1815. Schwarzenberg was far from the best, or most determined Austrian Commander. The Archduke Charles was a more formidable opponent, and gave Napoleon a near death experience. After 1809 he retired from military service, and Schwarzenberg was the best they could come up with. The best that Prussia could find after the ossified generals of 1806-7 humiliated themselves was the 72 year old, (In 1815) Blucher, who didn't come out of the debacle of that war with a particularly glorious reputation, he was defeated, cornered, and surrendered along with the bulk of the Prussian Army.

If Napoleon, and his Marshals were aging rapidly what was happening to the Allied commanders? Blucher, and Wellington were the best of them in 1815. If Wellington had been forced off the Continent, and Blucher killed, or captured at Ligny were de' Tolly, and Schwarzenberg the men who could conduct a complicated, and risky operation against the greatest general of his age? If they failed who would replace them?

I really don't understand your reference to 1914. Conscription in Czarist Russia was extremely unpopular, for more reasons then the Drill Regulations. As for terms that would keep Napoleon in power, Alexander, and the other Coalition Leaders had offered them the year before, when the military situation was much more favorable then they would have been in August 1815. Again in 1814 Napoleon was outnumbered more then 4 to 1, in 1815 it would have only been 3 to 2, with Napoleon having the same geographic advantages he had in 1814.

I contend it's a reasonable What If that Napoleon could've won big in Belgium, then have had have a fair to good chance of fending off the next wave, of opponents. After that diplomacy would be the next battlefield, where the game is the art of compromise.
 
Though out history armies have mostly promoted the bravest officers. To say that Napoleonic France was much different than other country is not factual. Until the 20th Century generals led from the front of their troops, and suffered high losses. In the last 100 years officer KIA's are usually Lt Colonels down, generals getting killed are rare, with Russian Generals being a possible exception in WWII. The higher they were promoted more qualities of intelligence, prudence, skill, initiative, and integrity came into play, all those combined equal judgment . All armies drew from the same pools of brave, and lucky officers to promote to general rank.

In this period Russian officers had a reputation of having a very low intellectual standard, far below other European Armies. Russian Troops have always been praised for their steady courage, and ability to endure the harshest battlefield conditions, but had to deal with poor officer quality.

Yes I've read mostly western histories of this period, I only said I never read about Alexander being motivated by hatred of Napoleon. Russian sources may differ. Like western writers perspectives change over time. In Russia political influences have often dictated the point of view. In post Soviet times there has been an effort to rehabilitate some of the Czars, with Alexander being a great nationalist hero.


You are seemingly confused on what I’m saying.

As far as the Napoleonic army is involved, Caulaincourt wrote in depth on the systematic problems. Commander never was reprimanded about the high losses as long as he was successful. The commanders (with few exceptions) were not required to take serious care about well-being of their troops beyond what was prescribed by emperor’s order. As a result, when retreat from Moscow started, only the Guards and the 1st Corps of Davout had properly organized baggage train. The French army and specifically cavalry was not taking a proper care of their horses. Usually, during the short campaigns outside France there were plenty of the captured horses to recompensate for the losses. In 1812 even before the French reached Smolensk a big percentage of horses had been lost due to the elementary mishandling. French cavalry could do little in the terms of reconnaissance: after Moscow was occupied, Murat’s cavalry could not find the Russian army for few weeks. Promoting the brave officers was a commonplace but when the bravery remains a major criteria for promoting into general or even marshal level, this may become a problem.

Can’t tell about intellectual level of the Russian officers of that period but, judging by their memoirs, not only Yermolov but much lesser figures like Davidov, Bestuzev-Marlinsky or Feodor Glinka do not produce an impression of the low-intellect or ill-educated creatures.

Your argument that you did not see anything about Alexander’s attitude toward Napoleon in the ‘western histories’ is neither here nor there: this is not a popular subject among the English-speaking writers and some of them, when they were venturing into it, ended up with the absolutely fantastic ideas. Not sure why you decided that the post-Soviet authors I was talking about are making a hero out of Alexander: it is rather risky to talk about the books you did not read. If anything, these books (and I gave you a title of a relatively mild one, Понасенков is much more harsh) are highly critical to him. To make a long story short, thesis about Alexander’s motivations seems to be well backed by the documented facts.
 
Your argument that you did not see anything about Alexander’s attitude toward Napoleon in the ‘western histories’ is neither here nor there: this is not a popular subject among the English-speaking writers and some of them, when they were venturing into it, ended up with the absolutely fantastic ideas. Not sure why you decided that the post-Soviet authors I was talking about are making a hero out of Alexander: it is rather risky to talk about the books you did not read. If anything, these books (and I gave you a title of a relatively mild one, Понасенков is much more harsh) are highly critical to him. To make a long story short, thesis about Alexander’s motivations seems to be well backed by the documented facts.


And you don't necessarily have to hate someone to become convinced that a lasting peace with him is impossible - or at least *very* improbable..
 
And you don't necessarily have to hate someone to become convinced that a lasting peace with him is impossible - or at least *very* improbable..
That’s true but if you do hate that person, probability is even lower.

At least some of the modern authors are arguing that practically from the start of his reign Alexander conducted a political course hostile to Napoleon while Napoleon was actively working on establishing friendly relations with Russia: by the end of the War of the 2nd coalition not only did he release Russian PoWs unilaterally (the Brits and Austrians refused to negotiate their release) but made rather unprecedented jesture by providing them with brand new Russian uniforms at his expense. Upon accession Alexander appointed the leading Russian Anglophile as ambassador to Britain with an instruction to sign a treaty on the terms proposed by the Brits. OTOH, his ambassador to France was a person who openly hated the French Revolution and Napoleon. Execution of Duke of Enghien made a reasonably small splash in Europe, except .... Russia (and Alexander did not even like the Bourbons) where Alexander went berserk and sent a very rude note to Napoleon to which Nappy answered with a hint to Alexander’s own past thus making things even worse etc. What were the objective reasons for Russia joining the 3rd Coalition? None. Britain and Austria had their grudges but Russia had absolutely nothing to bitch about or to gain (the CS did not exist, yet).

Tilsit was all hugs and kisses and immediately after that Russian military budget started skyrocketing: within few years it grew 4 or 5 times and the size of Russian army grew correspondingly.
 
That’s true but if you do hate that person, probability is even lower.

At least some of the modern authors are arguing that practically from the start of his reign Alexander conducted a political course hostile to Napoleon while Napoleon was actively working on establishing friendly relations with Russia: by the end of the War of the 2nd coalition not only did he release Russian PoWs unilaterally (the Brits and Austrians refused to negotiate their release) but made rather unprecedented jesture by providing them with brand new Russian uniforms at his expense. Upon accession Alexander appointed the leading Russian Anglophile as ambassador to Britain with an instruction to sign a treaty on the terms proposed by the Brits. OTOH, his ambassador to France was a person who openly hated the French Revolution and Napoleon. Execution of Duke of Enghien made a reasonably small splash in Europe, except .... Russia (and Alexander did not even like the Bourbons) where Alexander went berserk and sent a very rude note to Napoleon to which Nappy answered with a hint to Alexander’s own past thus making things even worse etc. What were the objective reasons for Russia joining the 3rd Coalition? None. Britain and Austria had their grudges but Russia had absolutely nothing to bitch about or to gain (the CS did not exist, yet).

Tilsit was all hugs and kisses and immediately after that Russian military budget started skyrocketing: within few years it grew 4 or 5 times and the size of Russian army grew correspondingly.

Your pointing out interesting facts but not a consistent theme. By the time Napoleon seized power in France Russia had already left the War of the Second Coalition. It would have been diplomatic malpractice to not try to improve Franco Russian relations. What strategic advantage would it have accrued to France to act in a hostile manner to Russia at that time? In 1800 Russia entered into the League Of Armed Neutrality, and came close to war with Britain. When Alexander assumed the throne going to war with France wasn't a priority, deescalating tensions with Britain was. Where was Alexander going to find a pro-French Revolution ambassador to send to Paris?

The Enghien Affair wasn't a small splash in Europe. It was major event, that badly damaged Napoleon's reputation in the eyes of almost all European Courts. It was one of the worst diplomatic mistakes of his career, accruing no benefit of any kind to him. None the less the stated goals of the Third Coalition didn't even include removing Napoleon from power. It was Britain that led the way in forming the Third Coalition, not Russia. They granted Russia subsidies, and made other political, and economic concessions. Russia's reasons for joining were ideological, and to increase their influence in Europe, by being a party in a successful war. Russia was also very concerned with the balance of power in Germany. Where do you get personal animosity against Napoleon from?

In 1808 at the Constellation of Erfurt, it was Talleyrand who warned Alexander against Napoleon's machinations. In 1809 Austria stood alone against France in Central Europe. If Alexander was motivated by personal hatred he could have easily brought about Napoleon's downfall by allying with Austria. With so many troops in Spain, Napoleon was hard pressed fighting on two fronts. After the failure at the Battle of Aspern-Essling Russian intervention would have been decisive. Yet he stayed faithful to his French Alliance. Why?

As I've pointed out in earlier posts Russia was fighting for survival in 1812. 1813 was to free Central Europe from French domination, so Russia couldn't be invaded, or isolated again. 1814 was about finishing the work of the Coalition, and establish a new stable European order. None the less the Allies, with the consent of Alexander did offer terms that would have left Napoleon in power. That kind of pragmatism doesn't suggest deep, personal hatred was his driving motivation.
 
Your pointing out interesting facts but not a consistent theme. By the time Napoleon seized power in France Russia had already left the War of the Second Coalition. It would have been diplomatic malpractice to not try to improve Franco Russian relations. What strategic advantage would it have accrued to France to act in a hostile manner to Russia at that time? In 1800 Russia entered into the League Of Armed Neutrality, and came close to war with Britain. When Alexander assumed the throne going to war with France wasn't a priority, deescalating tensions with Britain was. Where was Alexander going to find a pro-French Revolution ambassador to send to Paris?

The Enghien Affair wasn't a small splash in Europe. It was major event, that badly damaged Napoleon's reputation in the eyes of almost all European Courts. It was one of the worst diplomatic mistakes of his career, accruing no benefit of any kind to him. None the less the stated goals of the Third Coalition didn't even include removing Napoleon from power. It was Britain that led the way in forming the Third Coalition, not Russia. They granted Russia subsidies, and made other political, and economic concessions. Russia's reasons for joining were ideological, and to increase their influence in Europe, by being a party in a successful war. Russia was also very concerned with the balance of power in Germany. Where do you get personal animosity against Napoleon from?

In 1808 at the Constellation of Erfurt, it was Talleyrand who warned Alexander against Napoleon's machinations. In 1809 Austria stood alone against France in Central Europe. If Alexander was motivated by personal hatred he could have easily brought about Napoleon's downfall by allying with Austria. With so many troops in Spain, Napoleon was hard pressed fighting on two fronts. After the failure at the Battle of Aspern-Essling Russian intervention would have been decisive. Yet he stayed faithful to his French Alliance. Why?

As I've pointed out in earlier posts Russia was fighting for survival in 1812. 1813 was to free Central Europe from French domination, so Russia couldn't be invaded, or isolated again. 1814 was about finishing the work of the Coalition, and establish a new stable European order. None the less the Allies, with the consent of Alexander did offer terms that would have left Napoleon in power. That kind of pragmatism doesn't suggest deep, personal hatred was his driving motivation.


Russia did not “leave” 2nd coalition until Napoleon became the 1st Counsul. Paul was quite explicit about this: “Now, when France got a king in anything but name ...”. Improving relation with Russia was a reasonable idea for Napoleon but why would it ceased to be afterwards? You are seemingly missing what was written: Alexander’s envoy in Paris was an outspoken enemy of the French Revolution and Napoleon while his envoy to London was not just an ardent Anglophile but got an instruction to accept all British conditions. It was not just an act of improving relations.

Execution of d’Enghien did not produce any action in Germany but Alexander broke diplomatic relations with France using it as a pretext. Britain was at war with France since 1803 but it could not form the 3rd Coalition without Alexander’s eager participation and it can hardly “led” it without troops on the ground. The 3rd Coalition started with St-Petersburg treaty (Alexander Novosiltsev to London to start talks and conditions were f8nalized in St-Petersburg) between Russia and Britain (March 30, 1804) In parallel Alexander conducted secret talks with Austria and Sweden which resulted in them jo8ning the forming coalition (secret treaty with Austria - November 6, 1804 and treaty with Sweden - January 14, 1805). What were the Russian “national interests”? None whatsoever.

What were Russian interests in supporting the 4th Coalition and continued fighting after defeat of Prussia? None.

Talleyrand told Alexander <whatever> at Erfurt? What exactly could he tell him that Alexander already did not know? Alexander was looking for Napoleon’s help against the Ottomans but got none. How this could pass for Napoleon’s “machinations”? The CS was hurting interests of the Russian nobility (but not the “national interests” because it resulted in the lower bread prices and growth of the manufacturing) but Alexander bypassed the problem with Tariff of 1810, which was, BTW, explicitly anti-French.

Alexander did not join Austria in 1809? He could not: the Ottoman War was still going on and Russian army was reforming. But between Tilsit and 1812 Russian military budget increased 4 - 5 times and there were few massive levies increasing size of the field army 2 - 3 times.

In 1812 Napoleon attacked Russia, which was a mistake, but the relations already had been spoiled and Alexander was quite active in spoiling them.

As for 1813 - 14, you are just repeating a standard position of the western historians. In the early 1813 situation was not uniformly seen this way on the Russian side: while liberation of Prussia happened more or less spontaneous, the “Russian party” led by Kutuzov was against “liberation of Europe”. Kutuzov was quite explicit in his opinion that the further fighting would benefit Britain but not Russia. Chances of the second French invasion of Russia after experience of 1812 were minuscule.
 
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Seems like there are some posters in this thread who know their stuff about Napoleon and early 19th Century Europe. I'd like to pick the brains of some of them if that's cool.

I'm working on a timeline that takes place in this era (POD is April 1797 but the butterflies really don't take effect til the early 1800s). I want a Europe that, as a result of this world, stays not-unified. I'm pretty sure I have a plausible way to keep Italy a patchwork of small-to-medium sized countries.

So I guess my questions are this:

1 - If Alexander I drops dead in say 1805-1808, who replaces him and what his his stance on Napoleon? Can someone depose him and who/why?
2 - Is there a way for Napoleon to win a smashing, Austerlitz-style victory in 1804-1806 and then be like "cool, I'm done here?" or is the man simply too ambitious for his own good?
3 - Is there a way the British ever agree to a lasting peace with a Napoleon-led France? If so, what are the British terms that they'll accept?
4 - What's the best way to ensure that Germany stays undivided? I want an eastern-oriented Prussia, a southeastern-oriented Austria, and a surviving Bavaria and other small western-oriented German states.

I really want Nappy to survive as Emperor so while I've thought of killing him off in say 1806 I think I'd rather have him on the throne til the 1820s but I want TTL's Napoleonic Wars to end around 1806-08ish.

I really appreciate any and all input.
 
Seems like there are some posters in this thread who know their stuff about Napoleon and early 19th Century Europe. I'd like to pick the brains of some of them if that's cool.

I'm working on a timeline that takes place in this era (POD is April 1797 but the butterflies really don't take effect til the early 1800s). I want a Europe that, as a result of this world, stays not-unified. I'm pretty sure I have a plausible way to keep Italy a patchwork of small-to-medium sized countries.

So I guess my questions are this:

1 - If Alexander I drops dead in say 1805-1808, who replaces him and what his his stance on Napoleon? Can someone depose him and who/why?
2 - Is there a way for Napoleon to win a smashing, Austerlitz-style victory in 1804-1806 and then be like "cool, I'm done here?" or is the man simply too ambitious for his own good?
3 - Is there a way the British ever agree to a lasting peace with a Napoleon-led France? If so, what are the British terms that they'll accept?
4 - What's the best way to ensure that Germany stays undivided? I want an eastern-oriented Prussia, a southeastern-oriented Austria, and a surviving Bavaria and other small western-oriented German states.

I really want Nappy to survive as Emperor so while I've thought of killing him off in say 1806 I think I'd rather have him on the throne til the 1820s but I want TTL's Napoleonic Wars to end around 1806-08ish.

I really appreciate any and all input.

The first part of #1 is simple. If Balexander is dead, name of the next emperor is Constantine I.

The 2nd part is a guesswork because Constantine never was seriously involved in a foreign politics. In 1812 he became one of the leaders of the “Russian party” in the army and was too vocal for his own good. However, it is hard to tell how things would turn if he becomes an emperor. In 1805 Russia is already at war and Constantine was quite enthusiastic: allegedly, as commander of the Guards he ordered his troop toproceed in a paradeground step all the way from St-Petersburg to the front (at least Lev Tolstoy considered story credible enough to retell). With Austria capitulating after Austerlitz, it would be up to Constantine either to make a peace or to support Prussian bellicosity (as Alexander did). I doubt that it is possible to chose one of these two options with more than 50% probability unless Nappy is playing the same game as he did with Paul (whom Constantine much reminded by his temper): laud the Russian bravery (release PoWs unconditionally) and blame everything on the Austrians (in whom Russian “public opinion” saw the reason of the defeat). In theory, this could work.

As the 3rd part, in theory he could be assassinated, just as his father and grandfather. The problem is that Nicholas is still too young (born in 1796) and it does not look like anybody seriously wanted regency of Maria Feodorovna and there was no obviou figure capable of acting as power behind the throne.

#2 was much discussed but, AFAIK, there is no clear answer to what can be Nappy’s end game that would make the Brits and Austrians and Prussians happy.

#3 - not sure if even making the French market completely open to the Brits would do the trick. Anyway, there are plenty of people who know British politics much better than I.

#4 - how about preserving the HRE?
 
Russia did not “leave” 2nd coalition until Napoleon became the 1st Counsul. Paul was quite explicit about this: “Now, when France got a king in anything but name ...”. Improving relation with Russia was a reasonable idea for Napoleon but why would it ceased to be afterwards? You are seemingly missing what was written: Alexander’s envoy in Paris was an outspoken enemy of the French Revolution and Napoleon while his envoy to London was not just an ardent Anglophile but got an instruction to accept all British conditions. It was not just an act of improving relations.

Execution of d’Enghien did not produce any action in Germany but Alexander broke diplomatic relations with France using it as a pretext. Britain was at war with France since 1803 but it could not form the 3rd Coalition without Alexander’s eager participation and it can hardly “led” it without troops on the ground. The 3rd Coalition started with St-Petersburg treaty (Alexander Novosiltsev to London to start talks and conditions were f8nalized in St-Petersburg) between Russia and Britain (March 30, 1804) In parallel Alexander conducted secret talks with Austria and Sweden which resulted in them jo8ning the forming coalition (secret treaty with Austria - November 6, 1804 and treaty with Sweden - January 14, 1805). What were the Russian “national interests”? None whatsoever.

What were Russian interests in supporting the 4th Coalition and continued fighting after defeat of Prussia? None.

Talleyrand told Alexander <whatever> at Erfurt? What exactly could he tell him that Alexander already did not know? Alexander was looking for Napoleon’s help against the Ottomans but got none. How this could pass for Napoleon’s “machinations”? The CS was hurting interests of the Russian nobility (but not the “national interests” because it resulted in the lower bread prices and growth of the manufacturing) but Alexander bypassed the problem with Tariff of 1810, which was, BTW, explicitly anti-French.

Alexander did not join Austria in 1809? He could not: the Ottoman War was still going on and Russian army was reforming. But between Tilsit and 1812 Russian military budget increased 4 - 5 times and there were few massive levies increasing size of the field army 2 - 3 times.

In 1812 Napoleon attacked Russia, which was a mistake, but the relations already had been spoiled and Alexander was quite active in spoiling them.

As for 1813 - 14, you are just repeating a standard position of the western historians. In the early 1813 situation was not uniformly seen this way on the Russian side: while liberation of Prussia happened more or less spontaneous, the “Russian party” led by Kutuzov was against “liberation of Europe”. Kutuzov was quite explicit in his opinion that the further fighting would benefit Britain but not Russia. Chances of the second French invasion of Russia after experience of 1812 were minuscule.

Taking your observations in order. Russia's leaving the 2nd Coalition had more to do with being defeated at 2nd Zurich, and the changed strategic situation. You seem to belong to a school of history that explains most decisions by understanding the personal feelings of the leaders making them. This is sometimes called the "Great Man Theory of History. According to this theory great men make arbitrary decisions based on internal reasoning, with little input from external sources. Though this has sometimes been true most of the time there are larger forces driving events.

So you think Czar Paul left the Coalition because a Military Strongman had seized power in France? Since this hadn't changed French policy in Europe, this would seem to be a frivolous reason. But in your favor seeking revenge for abolishing the "Order of the Knights of St John" was pretty frivolous to. But wait the Military Strongman was the one who's dissolving of the Order, which provoked Paul to join the war to begin with. Now I'm confused, did Paul hate Napoleon, or like him because he was a King for all practical purposes?

Napoleon's attitude towards Russia changed because the situation changed. He always seemed to have a high personal opinion of the Czar Alexander, and gyrated between War & Peace for strategic reasons, not personal ones. From 1800-1811 Napoleon wanted peace with Russia, only in the lead up to 1812 did he want war. I didn't miss what people wrote about Alexander's choice of ambassadors, I dismissed it with a short comment, because it's not a meaningful, or insightful comment, it's just a data point.

Russian ambassadors were drawn from the Aristocratic Class. Some of them were pro, and some anti British, Alexander logically picked a pro-British ambassador, to improve Russo-British relations. He conceded to British terms because France was a more immediate threat to Russian interests. He would have been hard pressed to find an aristocrat who was pro French Revolution, or who had a personal fondness for a man an aristocrat would consider a boorish, upstart, who had seized power in a military coup. Russo French relations would have to be based on national interests, not warm personal feelings between diplomats, or shared national values. The United States never sent a Communist to serve as ambassador to the Soviet Union, or the PRC.

To say the d'Enghien affair produced no reaction outside Russia is to assume there is no state between amicable relations, and breaking them off. Russia had less to fear from French retaliation, then small vulnerable German States, or even Austria, so they could react more strongly. Your stating Alexander used the d'Enghien Affair has an accuse? If he'd wanted to go to war in 1802 he could have. Russian Fleets and troops could have helped the British in the Mediterranean, and conducted operations in Italy. Russian Troops with British help could have also landed in Holland, or North Germany. Operations of this type could've induced other powers to join an earlier Third Coalition.

Why would Russia enter into secret talks to form an anti-French alliance? Maybe for the same reason everyone else was doing it for. All the European Powers, except Spain were concerned that France was becoming too powerful. She'd annexed all the territories west of the Rhine, along with Switzerland, Large parts of Western Germany, and most of Mainland Italy were under French control, or domination. Revolutionary, & Napoleonic France had reached a level of territorial conquest, and military power vastly greater then anything achieved under Louis XIV.

Ideologically France was by it's nature a revolutionary regime, that posed an existential threat to all reactionary states. In the period leading up to the Third Coalition no one could be sure what exactly would be the nature of Napoleon's rule. Would he be a true liberator, or just a new monarch trying to secure his dynasty. Listen to Beethoven's 3rd. Several years later it was clear that the latter was the case, and the monarchs could, and did deal with him has a peer. The Emperor of Austria formed a dynastic alliance with France, by marrying his Daughter to Napoleon. Napoleon had first sought a Russian marriage, but it was the women, particularly Alexander's mother who prevented it. The Czar's mother was the Russian Royal who hated Napoleon, not her son.

Why did Russia try to help Prussia in 1806-7? They were still at war from the Third Coalition. The Russians weren't a party to the Treaty of Pressburg. They simple withdrew back to home territory under cover of the Armistice after Austerlitz. Russia kept fighting in Italy, along with the British, only withdrawing from Naples when the French sent heavy reinforcements to retake it.

It's was unfortunate for Prussia that Napoleon acted before any Russian Army could have rendered effective assistance. Once Austrian neutrality was secured Napoleon was ready to make his move. Prussia's mistake was not joining the Third Coalition, in the fall of 1805 when they could have cut Napoleon's communications across Germany. If they'd acted then Napoleon would have been forced to abandon Vienna, and fight a much less favorable campaign in Germany. There would be no Battle of Austerlitz.

Talleyrand could tell Alexander a lot. He told him not to trust Napoleon, that his ambitions were unlimited, and that he planned to use Austria has a counterweight to Russian power. He also told him Napoleon's advice to invade Turkey, and Persia were merely designed to tie them down, to keep them out of European Affairs. To hear that kind of advice from a foreign minister about his head of state must have been jarring. Talleyrand was continuously advising Napoleon to not overplay his hand, that he had to accept some type of balance of Power that took into account the interests of other powers. French Hegemony wasn't sustainable, because sooner or later every other power would challenge it. That was the policy he brought to Vienna in 1815.

The Continental System was certainly not beneficial to Russia. Your argument is based on a protectionist theory that industry will develop faster without foreign competition. Loss of export markets was putting a severe strain on Russian Finances, and deigning them goods, and technology not available on the Continent. Protectionist policies never work in the long run, the vast majority of economists reject it, The failure of the CS is just another historical example.

If it was such a boon to the Russian Economy, and standard of living of the peasants why did the Czar, and every other ruler, and official in Europe who could pay a bribe violate it? The French massively violated it themselves? By 1811 the Russians were almost completely ignoring it, which was the prime motivation for Napoleon to invade Russia. The CS cost Napoleon more then it gained him, and was a completely failed attempt at economic warfare.

In 1809 even 50,000-100,000 troops would have been decisive. Are you contending that Russia couldn't put 50,000 men in the field? The Austrian Government made it's decision for war at the beginning of February 1809, by the beginning of March it was an open secret in the diplomatic world, Napoleon know war was at hand, Russia knew as well. So with his deep personal hatred of Napoleon being his driving force since coming to the throne, with 3 months time to transfer troops from less critical fronts Alexander, with perhaps the biggest army in the world couldn't send 50,000 men toward Vienna? It's simple hard to believe.

Yes I'm repeating Western Historians, because they make logical sense. I know the decision to invade Poland, and liberate Germany wasn't universally supported by all Russian political, and military leaders. If not for the reasons I stated what was the Czar's motivation to take the option he did? Personal hatred? If he hadn't Napoleon would have crushed Prussia, in the Spring of 1813, and Austria would have stayed a French Ally. Napoleon would have driven the Russians out of the Grand Duchy of Warsaw, and been back on the Neiman by August. I agree that Napoleon would never have invade Russia again, but he could have diplomatically, and economically isolated her. No country wants to be put in that situation, and most would go to war to prevent it.

From your comments I take it your not from a Western Country, and have a different take on aspects of history. I really don't know what they teach in a Russian History Class about the Napoleonic Wars. I hope it's not as Russia Centric has their take on WWII, Russia did everything, and
everything was about Russia, and Russia was the only thing that mattered. With all the strategic considerations that the belligerents needed to consider, it's hard to believe that personal hatred was the driving force. It's also hard to believe that Russian historians are the only ones with the insight, or access to original records to prove this "Personal Hatred Theory". I don't think it stands up to critical analysis, but your free to defend it.
 
Taking your observations in order. Russia's leaving the 2nd Coalition had more to do with being defeated at 2nd Zurich, and the changed strategic situation. You seem to belong to a school of history that explains most decisions by understanding the personal feelings of the leaders making them. This is sometimes called the "Great Man Theory of History. According to this theory great men make arbitrary decisions based on internal reasoning, with little input from external sources. Though this has sometimes been true most of the time there are larger forces driving events.

No offense, but you are seemingly belong to the school who does not read carefully before answering and tends to stick labels.

Paul got out of the 2nd Coalition by a wide variety of the strategic and political reasons (he was pissed off both with Austria and France) but none of these reasons dictated the rapprochement with France to a degree which happened in OTL. Defeat at Zurich was not critical and, as far as saving the face was involved, had been compensated by the glory of Suvorov's retreat across the Alps. Ideologically, peace with France was not possible for an ultra-monarchist like Paul until the coup, which made Napoleon the 1st Consul. After the coup "France got itself a king in everything but name" and the peace became a possibility.

What you wrote about the Great Man theory is rather irrelevant because in the absolutist state its ruler has a freedom to make a lot of decisions just based upon what you described as "internal reasoning" and what is actually is his or her vision of the situation. There were no "larger forces" in the Russia of the late XVIII which would be driving it to war with France and so far you did not produce anything besides the generalities.

So you think Czar Paul left the Coalition because a Military Strongman had seized power in France? Since this hadn't changed French policy in Europe, this would seem to be a frivolous reason.

What "seems" to you is rather irrelevant and what you wrote clearly indicates that you did not quite understand what I wrote. Paul established friendly relations with France because the coup made it ideologically possible. Coalition already fall apart.

But in your favor seeking revenge for abolishing the "Order of the Knights of St John" was pretty frivolous to. But wait the Military Strongman was the one who's dissolving of the Order, which provoked Paul to join the war to begin with. Now I'm confused, did Paul hate Napoleon, or like him because he was a King for all practical purposes?

Elementary knowledge of the subject would tell you that the Order was not "abolished": it exists even now. French capture of Malta was not the reason for the Russian entry into the war: Russian fleet was operating on the Med, took the Ionic Islands, and then operated along the coast of the Southern Italy (took Brindizi, participated in taking of Naples) but never got to Malta. Actually, eventually the Brits asked Ushakov to participate in blockade of Malta but in Messina he got an order to return to the Black Sea. In other words, capture of Malta was not Paul's priority in the War of the 2nd Coalition. BTW, Paul withdrew his fleet from the Med only after the Austrians lost at Marengo and signed an armistice with the 1st Consul

As for the reasons for entering the war, Paul's instruction to Suvorov was quite clear: after kicking the French from Italy he had to try to invade France with a purpose of changing regime. To Paul's great disappointment the Austrians had been pursuing a much modest task and his grand design proved to be futile because its 2nd part, invasion of Holland, also failed. At this juncture Bonaparte's coup came quite handy for saving the face and Nappy played into it by making a chivalric gesture, which Paul was doomed to appreciate.

Sorry, but further discussion is of no interest to me.
 
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