No spanish quagmire.
Probably no war against Austria in 1809 since Austria started the war because France was very busy in Spain.
Maybe then a russian-austrian coalition starting in 1810 when Russia no longer wants to enforce the continental blocade. Imagine a big war starting in 1811, with Russia and Austria trying to have prussians revolt against french occupation and joint their coalition.
France would face it in better conditions than it did in 1813 in our real history, but it would anyway be a very difficult campaign.