WI: Napoleon III dies in 1869

Napoleon IV regents(specially her spanish born mother) would still fucked up with the Spanish Sucession Crisis, but maybe not, throw a coin, but if france not fucked up about that, the chances for leopold as spanish king are bigger.

I think germany would unify by end of 70's, by economics reason.
 
The days of authoritarian imüerial government in France are over. The Second Empire might survive with a figurehead empereur and a constitution surprisingly similar to OTL'S Third Republic.
Before they get there, there might be an royalist coup attempt or an communard uprising once it becomes clear that any regency arrangement for Nap IV is saddled with lots of infighting.

Even a French-Prussian War might happen similar, since Bismarck will pounce on any reasonable casus belli presented by a confused French government. Militarily, France will still not win, for the usual reasons, but if Nap IV avoids going to the front and stays in Paris, he might weather the war, as Bismarck has no reason to wish for revolutionary unrest in France.
 
When N3 dies in June 1869 the general elections are already over: the regime has got a majority of the votes (55%) but not as strong as the emperor hoped. The majority in the house is still quite large, given the electoral system that privileged the rural votes, but the results in Paris (75% to the liberal opposition) is quite worrisome. Even the results of the rural vote - considering the strength of the government "machine" and the traditional pork-barreling - is less than expected by the government.
Another problem is that N3 was governing directly and not through a parliamentary democracy. His (sudden?) death would represent a major problem for the dynasty, since the Prince Imperial is still 5 years from majority and there is not even a real ministry to guide the nation in such a troubled time. The first hurdle would be the formation of a regency council (a major problem is that the titular head of House Bonaparte is Plon-Plon, who is a notorious liberal). My guess is that the mamelukes (the most conservative supporters of the regime) would coalesce around the empress and buy out the Ultramontane faction with concessions to the church. The liberals, the republicans and the royalists would be up in arms and it is not so much a matter of votes in parliament but rather of street riots and maybe worse. A reasonable policy might be to anticipate the jure-consultus of OTL September 1870 and to reintroduce a parliamentary democracy co-opting the moderate liberals (which happened IOTL with the Ollivier ministry, but the results were not as good as hoped). IMHO it is much more likely the insurrections will be repressed in blood, after which everything goes. On the international scene it would be an even better opportunity for Otto von Bismarck: with a dead N3 the likelihood of a Franco-Prussian war is exponentially increased and the Spanish succession crisis is guaranteed to be the spark.
 
OTL, Bismarck engineered the Franco-Prussian war by pressing N3's buttons. He HAS to have France declare war, because the whole point of the war was to unify Germany behind Prussia. If France is the aggressor, Bavaria, etc., are likely to fall in line. If Prussia is the aggressor, then they will likely stay out - or worst case even opportunistically try to nibble off a bit of Prussian territory adjacent to them.

So. No, I don't think the Franco-Prussian War is likely iTTL. Sure, France will be weaker here - but that's why they won't declare war.

Of course, I suppose it's possible that toxic infighting in the French government MIGHT lead to saber rattling which lets Bismarck back them into a corner, but it's much less likely than iOTL. IMO.
 
OTL, Bismarck engineered the Franco-Prussian war by pressing N3's buttons. He HAS to have France declare war, because the whole point of the war was to unify Germany behind Prussia. If France is the aggressor, Bavaria, etc., are likely to fall in line. If Prussia is the aggressor, then they will likely stay out - or worst case even opportunistically try to nibble off a bit of Prussian territory adjacent to them.

So. No, I don't think the Franco-Prussian War is likely iTTL. Sure, France will be weaker here - but that's why they won't declare war.

Of course, I suppose it's possible that toxic infighting in the French government MIGHT lead to saber rattling which lets Bismarck back them into a corner, but it's much less likely than iOTL. IMO.

Don't forget that Bismarck has already pressed a lot of N3's buttons ITTL too.
The French opinion is already very much against Prussia (IOTL there were war scares in 1867, 1868 and 1869 - in a way the first half of 1870 looked much quieter).
Since the casus belli will be the Spanish succession and the empress Eugenie is Spaniard it is very likely she will lobby to stop Prussian perceived encroachment ITTL too (not to mention that Eugenie was a firm believer in a short victorious war to prop up the dynasty. This angle will work even better ITTL)
 
OTL, Bismarck engineered the Franco-Prussian war by pressing N3's buttons. He HAS to have France declare war, because the whole point of the war was to unify Germany behind Prussia. If France is the aggressor, Bavaria, etc., are likely to fall in line. If Prussia is the aggressor, then they will likely stay out - or worst case even opportunistically try to nibble off a bit of Prussian territory adjacent to them.

So. No, I don't think the Franco-Prussian War is likely iTTL. Sure, France will be weaker here - but that's why they won't declare war.

Of course, I suppose it's possible that toxic infighting in the French government MIGHT lead to saber rattling which lets Bismarck back them into a corner, but it's much less likely than iOTL. IMO.
IIRC Bismarck later stated that he did not want to unify Germany in the Franco-Prussian War, but it just kind of fell into place after Prussia began dominating.
 
I doubt the French government would start a war when their emperor is dead and that they are in a regency.
 
I doubt the French government would start a war when their emperor is dead and that they are in a regency.

Most reasonable but as I said Eugenie and her faction strongly believed that a war was the only way to ensure the future of the dynasty, the French public opinion was rabidly anti-Prussian (irrespective of being Bonapartists, legitimists, republicans or liberals) and Bismarck is guaranteed to step up his pinpricks slowly but surely. Maybe there will be no war but just a revolution.
 
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