OTL, Bismarck engineered the Franco-Prussian war by pressing N3's buttons. He HAS to have France declare war, because the whole point of the war was to unify Germany behind Prussia. If France is the aggressor, Bavaria, etc., are likely to fall in line. If Prussia is the aggressor, then they will likely stay out - or worst case even opportunistically try to nibble off a bit of Prussian territory adjacent to them.
So. No, I don't think the Franco-Prussian War is likely iTTL. Sure, France will be weaker here - but that's why they won't declare war.
Of course, I suppose it's possible that toxic infighting in the French government MIGHT lead to saber rattling which lets Bismarck back them into a corner, but it's much less likely than iOTL. IMO.
IIRC Bismarck later stated that he did not want to unify Germany in the Franco-Prussian War, but it just kind of fell into place after Prussia began dominating.OTL, Bismarck engineered the Franco-Prussian war by pressing N3's buttons. He HAS to have France declare war, because the whole point of the war was to unify Germany behind Prussia. If France is the aggressor, Bavaria, etc., are likely to fall in line. If Prussia is the aggressor, then they will likely stay out - or worst case even opportunistically try to nibble off a bit of Prussian territory adjacent to them.
So. No, I don't think the Franco-Prussian War is likely iTTL. Sure, France will be weaker here - but that's why they won't declare war.
Of course, I suppose it's possible that toxic infighting in the French government MIGHT lead to saber rattling which lets Bismarck back them into a corner, but it's much less likely than iOTL. IMO.
I doubt the French government would start a war when their emperor is dead and that they are in a regency.