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I've seen some discussions before about the assassination attempt against Napoleon III carried out by Felice Orsini in 1858. But the Emperor was also almost shot three years before that attempt by other Italian, Giovanni Pianori: http://www.napoleon.org/EN/Template/newsletterPreview2.asp?idnewsletter=367
"Today [28 April], at about 5 o'clock, the Emperor was on horse back on the Champs-Elysées... At the level of the Château des Fleurs [near to current Rue Bassano], a well-dressed man came to within several paces of the Emperor and took a pistol shot [in fact two] at His Majesty. The Emperor was not hit, and after thanking the people who immediately surrrounded him, he continued his ride at a walk, heading off to meet the Empress who was riding in the Bois de Boulogne... The assassin was immediately stopped by the people who were near to him at the time and was handed over to the authorities..."
So, WI Pianori had killed Napoleon III in April 1855? He still didn't have a son, he there was no direct her to the throne. Would the Second French Empire fall and the Republic be proclaimed again? Could the monarchy be restored? And how could it affect the outcome of the Crimean War?