WI: Napoleon III and MacMahon retreat from Sedan

IOTL, the Battle of Sedan, during the Franco-Prussian War, was running pretty badly for the french imperial forces, which were being grinded down by the prussians.
Marshall MacMahon advised Napoleon III, who was commanding the army in person, to retreat to Paris and take a defensive stance. Napoleon III, however, rejected this proposal on the basis that it'd be a blow to his prestige, and instead tried striking again at the prussian army. As expected, he failed miserably -- his army, along himself, was encircled, and a surrender was ordered.
News of the emperor's surrender at Sedan reached the rest of France, and led to large unrest. His reputation was blown away. And the rest (Third Republic, Adolphe Thiers, Siege of Paris, Paris Commune) followed.
But what if Napoleon III had listened to MacMahon, and chose to retreat from Sedan into Paris?
With the emperor there to defend and keep Paris in order, what are the ramifications?
Could the Second French Empire survive? With France's defeat probably being less catastrophic, could Alsace and Lorraine remain in french hands?
 
I'd say saving the Second Empire is doable. The loss at Sedan is probably still a disaster, but France has two options. They can sue for peace from a stronger position, which ironically helps Bismarck convince his government to exchange Alsace-Lorraine (which he didn't want) for a larger indemnity.

France could also dig in, hoping to hold out long enough to pull together a coalition against Prussia. That's going to be easier said than done. Austrian or Russian assistance will likely require France to support one against the other in the Balkans. Britain won't support France against Prussia, and will fight with Prussia if it looks like Prussia is in danger of being wiped out.

If it was me, I'd arrange British and Russian neutrality by convincing Austria to look away from the Balkans to return to the status quo in Germany (and afterwards Italy). If Austria doesn't go for it, France's only other option is surrender.
 
France could also dig in, hoping to hold out long enough to pull together a coalition against Prussia. That's going to be easier said than done. Austrian or Russian assistance will likely require France to support one against the other in the Balkans. Britain won't support France against Prussia, and will fight with Prussia if it looks like Prussia is in danger of being wiped out.

If it was me, I'd arrange British and Russian neutrality by convincing Austria to look away from the Balkans to return to the status quo in Germany (and afterwards Italy). If Austria doesn't go for it, France's only other option is surrender.
What about the south germans in this situation? If the war goes on for long enough without a clear prussian victory, could they choose to stab Berlin in the back and join the war on France's side?
 
What about the south germans in this situation? If the war goes on for long enough without a clear prussian victory, could they choose to stab Berlin in the back and join the war on France's side?

Switching side is rather unlikely (for they still know how 1866 went) but I guess a separate peace and withdrawing their troops could be doable, though I don't know how the territorial ambitions of Imperial France would influence this (Bavarian Palatinate was among the territories which Napoleon III kinda coveted)
 
Switching side is rather unlikely (for they still know how 1866 went) but I guess a separate peace and withdrawing their troops could be doable, though I don't know how the territorial ambitions of Imperial France would influence this (Bavarian Palatinate was among the territories which Napoleon III kinda coveted)
Best option for France is to keep a middling Austria and a middling Prussia deadlocked in Germany. The question though, is if there is anyone in Imperial France that knows that.
 
First, the thing about the retreat would be more about Napoléon III listening to MacMahon rather than the Empress who was actually behind the decision to keep on.

Then, if the French had entrenched under the protection of Paris heavy guns, there is no way the German armies would have been free to roam through France with that army at their back and their lines of communications still strangled in Lorraine due to their narrow nature, the ongoing guerilla and the resistance of the fortresses.

Attrition warfare at the time would have undoubdtedly favored the French and I see indeed a negotiated peace without annexation as the best outcome for France, though at the price of heavy blow to the regime prestige, but not a deadly one (the republic proclaimation was an 'accident' born out of an opportunity and the regime was still strong in the countryside).
 
You would have pretty much stop revanchism from rising at all and change everything about the rest of the 19th and ealry 20th century.

Prussia is going to win, no doubt about it, but without the outright asskicking of the War, and losing Alsace-Lorraine, you remove most of the bitterness, hatred and demand for revenge against Germany that came from it.

The Second Empire surviving is possible, but with the chaotic nature of Freach politics after Napoleon, it is up in the air.
 
Last edited:
Top