WI: Napoleon III and Empress Eugenie killed by Orsini's bomb

This is not a TL, but a little text I've written to debate.
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1858, january 14th
The Emperor and Empress are killed by a bomb around 8.30 p.m. .
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Within an hour, the government learns what has happened. According to articles 5 and 25 of the Senatus-consult of July 1856, the ministers assumed for some hours the Regency. The first act is to order to the imperial army to occupy Paris to prevent any insurrection. At the same time, Prince Jerome, the last surviving brother of Napoleon Ist, is informed and come quickly to the Tuileries Palace where the Imperial Guard had taken defensive positions. At 10 p.m., he discretly swears the Regency oath in front of a 2 years old child.
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Napoleon IV
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Prince-Regent Jerome

1858, january 15th
During the night, the news about the assassination have spread across Paris. In the early morning, a republican mob which attempted to occupy the Palais Bourbon is surprised to see that the Empire has not crumbled as thought when a detachment of Gendarmerie, later reinforced by some units of the Imperial Guard, opens fire, killing dozens people.
At the Hotel de Ville, some Republicans proclaim the restoration of the Republic.
In the afternoon however, euphoria begins to decline. The uprising finds little support among Parisians and the Imperial Army is entering Paris.

1858, january 16th
The few barricades hastily built by the Republicans haven't resisted a long time, and by the dawn, the uprising is over.
 
Hmmm. One wonders how Bismarck plans to lure alt-France into a war in this TL. Or will butterflies take care of all that? Either way you have me interested.
 
How old was the prince? Will he be running the show in 1870?

No. He's 2 now. He'll be 14 in 1870, but from what I can gather Napoleon III was planning on abdicating in 1874 for in his favour anyway, mainly because he wanted to reform but his means of accession meant he couldn't, but his son would have a relatively blank slate.
 
Will he be running the show in 1870?
Under the imperial constitution, an emperor begins to reign at his eighteenth birthday.

Hmmm. One wonders how Bismarck plans to lure alt-France into a war in this TL. Or will butterflies take care of all that? Either way you have me interested.
Prince Jerome IOTL died in 1860.
So, from 1860 to 1874, the Regent should be Prince Jerome Napoleon (nicknamed 'Plon-Plon').
Plon-Plon was IOTL the leader of the Liberal Bonapartists. Himself was a virulent anti-clerical.
From what I know, he was a strong supporter of the Italian unification and opposed to war with Prussia. With him, France should be far less isolated than IOTL (because of the awkward foreign policy of Napoleon III: mexican expedition, luxembourg crisis...).
 
I don't know if this is the route you want to go, but I'd guess that such a short time between the II Empire's foundation and Napoleon III's death, coupled with such a long regency for the next emperor, would discredit the monarchy very quickly.

On the other hand, there is the question if the imperial government turns to conservativism like Napoleon III did in his later years, or remains on the progressive camp like in his younger years, which would help the institution.

Anyway, the first consequences that come to my mind are no French involvement in the wars of Italian unification and no Mexican empire, which will have lots of repercusions.

Consider me subscribed.
 
I could see a rallying round in the first instance - the poor little mite, lost his parents syndrome, and relatively sympathetic response to the old dude as regent.

This should ensure that the monarchy survives the transition, but a few years down the line it is going to get more difficult.

As a note, the next male heir is not BY NECESSITY Regent, unless the Napoleonic laws demand it. So after Jerome's death, there could be a struggle between others.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I could see a rallying round in the first instance - the poor little mite, lost his parents syndrome, and relatively sympathetic response to the old dude as regent.

This should ensure that the monarchy survives the transition, but a few years down the line it is going to get more difficult.

As a note, the next male heir is not BY NECESSITY Regent, unless the Napoleonic laws demand it. So after Jerome's death, there could be a struggle between others.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

From what I know, Napoleon III and Eugenie absolutely hated Plon-Plon and considered him the worst candidate from the throne of the entire available lot. Whether Prince Jerome shares the same opinion will shape how ...interesting things get.
 
I don't know if this is the route you want to go, but I'd guess that such a short time between the II Empire's foundation and Napoleon III's death, coupled with such a long regency for the next emperor, would discredit the monarchy very quickly.

On the other hand, there is the question if the imperial government turns to conservativism like Napoleon III did in his later years, or remains on the progressive camp like in his younger years, which would help the institution.

Anyway, the first consequences that come to my mind are no French involvement in the wars of Italian unification and no Mexican empire, which will have lots of repercusions.

Consider me subscribed.
The Empire should be as progressive as IOTL, given the liberal opinions of Napoleon Jerome. I think that during the fourteen years of his regency, he will do all it would be possible to make France a democracy.
However, he would face the opposition of the Authoritarians which should control the Regency Council.
Thus, an intervention in Italy, even if the Regent would want it, would be rejected by the Regency Council which controls the foreign policy of France (he can oppose treaties).

I could see a rallying round in the first instance - the poor little mite, lost his parents syndrome, and relatively sympathetic response to the old dude as regent.

This should ensure that the monarchy survives the transition, but a few years down the line it is going to get more difficult.

As a note, the next male heir is not BY NECESSITY Regent, unless the Napoleonic laws demand it. So after Jerome's death, there could be a struggle between others.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
I refer to the senatus-consult of july 1856:
if the Emperor dies, the regency for a still infant son goes to the Empress Mother; if the Empress Mother dies, the Regent becomes the next 'Prince Français' (French Prince) in the order of succession.
In 1858, the only 'Princes Français' are Prince Jerome and his son.

From what I know, Napoleon III and Eugenie absolutely hated Plon-Plon and considered him the worst candidate from the throne of the entire available lot. Whether Prince Jerome shares the same opinion will shape how ...interesting things get.
Eugenie, maybe; Napoleon III, I don't think. Plon-Plon wasn't liked mostly by authoritarian bonapartists. When the laws of succession and regency were made, it was the Senate, dominated by authoritarians, which did all to keep away Plon-Plon from the throne.
 
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