WI: Napoleon gets killed/arrested after his return?

Let's say when Napoleon gets back from Elba, but instead of turning the armies sent to arrest him into following him one of two things happen:

1. He gets shot by a soldier while said rallying happens. (IE - Someone takes his "Here I am. Kill your Emperor" offer a bit too literally and pulls the trigger)

2. His "rallying" doesn't work and he gets arrested early.

Which of the two scenarios is more likely?
 
I've always kind of liked the scenario where his boat capsizes leaving Elba and he drowns, leaving him as the vanished bogeyman to haunt the dreams of Europe for decades (with random conspiracy theories/pretenders as needed).
 
Or what about this: if Scenario 1 happens and everyone else is not to pleased about it - the unlucky soldier gets lynched, with his screams of mercy being muted by the cries of "Vive l'Empereur!"
 
Or what about this: if Scenario 1 happens and everyone else is not to pleased about it - the unlucky soldier gets lynched, with his screams of mercy being muted by the cries of "Vive l'Empereur!"

Could well happen if he does it after all or most of the troops have switched sides.

If he does it sooner, when only a few have, then it all probably fizzles out. The few troops that have already gone over just get arrested.
 
Let's say when Napoleon gets back from Elba, but instead of turning the armies sent to arrest him into following him one of two things happen:

1. He gets shot by a soldier while said rallying happens. (IE - Someone takes his "Here I am. Kill your Emperor" offer a bit too literally and pulls the trigger)

2. His "rallying" doesn't work and he gets arrested early.

Which of the two scenarios is more likely?

1.

Nobody wants Napoleon put on trial in France. Especially not at a time when the restored Bourbon monarchy has quickly become unpopular since it never enjoyed popular support. They were brought back from abroad vans, as the french said. And not any foreign vans : the vans of the foreign powers that unrelentlessly opposed France's historic strategic ambitions as well as the democratic values that had been proclaimed by the french revolution.

So if a power lacking popular support succeeds in stopping Napoleon's return, it will Nappy dead without the political turmoil that a trial would unavoidably cause.
 
Napoleon: "If there is one of you who would kill his Emperor..." *gunshot* *drops to the ground*

Now I wonder what happens next?
 
Or what about this: if Scenario 1 happens and everyone else is not to pleased about it - the unlucky soldier gets lynched, with his screams of mercy being muted by the cries of "Vive l'Empereur!"

But then what do they do? Rally around the four-year-old Napoleon II?
 
But then what do they do? Rally around the four-year-old Napoleon II?

Napoleon II is in Austria and I doubt the Austrians will return him to France. Meanwhile, the army will take power (lead by Ney and other generals, like Davout and Carnot), a provisional government of the *surviving* revolutionaries will form (Fouché, Cambacérès, the mentionned Davout and Carnot) and the unleashed mob will chase royalists, priests and other unlucky person*. The brothers of Napoleon could play a role: Lucien Bonaparte, who was a convinced revolutionary, might become head of state.

The question is now if France is able to repeat what it did in 1793 (in other words fight Europe and win) or if it ends like it did OTL with a battle similar to Waterloo.

*The workers of Paris did offer support to Napoleon in 1815, but he refused their help.
 
In this scenario, Louis XVIII has no reason to flee. It's one thing to rally to Napoleon, quite another to take up with a band of mutinous soldiers. With Napoleon dead, would even Ney be likely to go over tot he mutineers, or just stay loyal to the restored King and die of old age? I suspect the latter.
 
I don't think that Louis XVIII would be toppled either, not immediately at least, without Napoleon I don't think that the Napoleonic officers would take ver: they have got too much to lose imo. In general, I am rather interested as what would the French political landscape be in a "no 100 days" situation. Maybe something like the June revolution could happen before? Or be butterflied, avoiding the "burgeoise monarchy" of Louis Philippe.
 
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