The Republic of France would have been defeated in the end, and the Consul Napoleon sent off to St. Helena. Nappy would never have married that young Habsburg princess, and he would have instituted a lot of reoublics in Europe instead of monarchies.
The 2nd Republic would not become the 2nd Empire, since Louis Napoleon never become Emperor.
I don't think that you can speak in such absolutes. Besides, the lack of a first empire could mean, for all we know, that French expansionism doesn't reach into the disasters of the Iberian and Russian campaigns, which, if you are familiar with the history of the Napoleonic wars would mean a very different outcome indeed.
Further, I don't see how Napoleon would somehow have been exiled to St Helena, considering that it was in his second exile that he found himself in the Atlantic, and that his first exile had placed him on Elba, where he had been made sovereign for life (which would not have happened had the first empire never existed).
Besides, the increase of republicanism in Europe, in contrast to monarchism, with the resulting nationalism would destroy a lot of the foundations for which early modern Europe was built much faster.
For example, if republicanism suddenly becomes the trend in Europe c. 1806, I could see British reforms from the 1830s either being pushed through faster to ensure stability, or scrapped altogether and the country taking a more reactionary path.
The world would be much different, and I strongly doubt that France would have been defeated. Further, a lack of an empire means a lack of a Bonaparte dynasty, which will have dramatic consequences for Europe. The next first consul could very well come from outside the ranks of the Bonaparte family.
Sorry, but I found your statements somewhat unfair and too closely linked to OT to be plausible.
