WI: Napoleon dismembers Austria/Prussia...

In this scenario, Napoleon decided to dismember either Austria or Prussia.

Some questions for Austria:

— Will Napoleon try to remove Bohemia and Moravia from the Habsburgs? Will it be independent, or will it be annexed by one of his allies (Bavaria/Saxony)?

— Will the Habsburgs retain Hungary? Napoleon tried to make it independent but failed. Are there any possible options for him regarding this?

— Will Austria proper survive intact? If so, will it be a puppet state?

For Prussia:

— Who gets Silesia? Saxony? Poland?

— What happens to the other Prussian lands? Will Napoleon forcibly break the union of Brandenburg and the old Prussia? Will the former be allowed to exist, or be annexed by (possibly) Saxony?

— As for West and East Prussia, will it be an independent state or be annexed by Poland?

— Will Napoleon offer chunks of former Prussian territories to Russia, in exchange for a long-term relationship (and an alliance)?

Any other scenarios?
 
A lot of this depends on the timing. Both Prussia and Austria were nominal allies at various points, as was Russia. If he decided to dismember one while the other was an ally, than the other might get a slice.

I would think Prussian Silesia would be broken into the Polish and German sections and split between Poland and Saxony.

West Prussia may go to Poland, East Prussia more likely independent or forced into Poland (which would cause problems in the long run). Maybe East Prussia could go to buy off Russia?

I don't see an easy way for any power to absorb Bohemia/Morovia. Maybe Nappy puts one of his Generals or brothers on the throne.

Dismembering Austria would be difficult, maybe on a lower scale. The Polish areas obviously go to Poland. A Bonaparte takes the Italian areas. Croatia is separated, maybe Slovenia too. If Nappy gets into the Balkans, perhaps Transylvania could go to a new Romanian state.
 

Redbeard

Banned
Even at the zenith of his power there really was a limit on how much Napoleon could handle. All the way until autumn 1813 he managed not at least by not fighting ALL of the potential antagonist at any one time. And when they united in autumn of 1813 - he was finished.


If he had tried to entirely dismantle one or more of the other great powers he probably would have had a much tougher time with the others and would have to divert many resources to control the dismantled powers. Like extending the situation on the Spanish peninsula to most of Europe - hardly a gain.

The OTL Confederation of the Rhine literally was built on the dismantled HRE but was on limited utility to the French. In theory they provied numerous troops for Napoleon but often of limited loyalty. The Saxons shifted side at Leipzig and the Bavarians secretly before and fielded 25.000+ men for the Allies already by October 1813.

The OTL solution of making Kaiser Franz father in law of Napoleon IMHO was ingenious. With hindsight Napoleon should have given Metternich just about anything in summer of 1813 to keep the Austrians from joining the Allies. The Austrian field army was close to 200.000 men trained and equipped at least as well as the French of autumn 1813, and with the Austrians staying put the Bavarians are likely to stay with the French. I doubt if the Allies would have managed autumn 1813 without the Austrians. AFAIK Metternich basically wanted back the Polish, Italian and Illyrian teritories lost earlier (but not the HRE) and that would of course be tough on Napoleonic pride and family loyalty (like to Eugene), but IMHO it was the last chance for Napoleon to survive. Actualy I think the Austrians would have been in trouble if Napoleon had accepted. They would be seen as Judas for ever and still not be strong enough to alone face France with Prussia and Russia out of the game.
 
""The OTL solution of making Kaiser Franz father in law of Napoleon IMHO was ingenious. With hindsight Napoleon should have given Metternich just about anything in summer of 1813 to keep the Austrians from joining the Allies. The Austrian field army was close to 200.000 men trained and equipped at least as well as the French of autumn 1813, and with the Austrians staying put the Bavarians are likely to stay with the French. I doubt if the Allies would have managed autumn 1813 without the Austrians. AFAIK Metternich basically wanted back the Polish, Italian and Illyrian teritories lost earlier (but not the HRE) and that would of course be tough on Napoleonic pride and family loyalty (like to Eugene), but IMHO it was the last chance for Napoleon to survive. Actualy I think the Austrians would have been in trouble if Napoleon had accepted. They would be seen as Judas for ever and still not be strong enough to alone face France with Prussia and Russia out of the game.[/QUOTE]""

I did not know about this. That would be an interesting POD for someone whom wanted a surviving Bonaparte Empire TL.
 
Metternich was not negotiating in good faith with Napoléon at Dresden. Radetzky was already working with Bernadotte on the Trachenberg plan while he was supposed to be part of a neutral nation. You need a Metternich that failed spectacularly at something else to be dismissed earlier because he was one of the people who couldn't and wouldn't live with Napoléon having as much power as he did. But in the event you keep the Austrians on Napoléon's side or even neutral, you remove a whole front of the three-sided encirclement Napoléon was faced with during the 1813 campaign that led to Leipzig. You also significantly alter the balance of forces and you start a snowball effect where there is no reason for Saxony or Bavaria to defect. It can easily lead to a new dismemberment of Prussia. I agree Silesia will go to either Poland or Saxony. Since they have the same ruler, Napoléon might not be too finicky about which gets what. Part of it might be awarded back to Austria if they commit early and powerfully enough. In fact, I'd say it goes something like that: Prussia loses Silesia to Saxony and every bit it got from the Kingdom of Poland (especially in 1772 and the subsequent partitions) goes to the Duchy of Warsaw. The Kingdom of Prussia thus returns more or less to the state it was in as the Electorate of Brandeburg.
 
Soult has no particular family ties to him. The only Marshal to get another thing than a Prince title was Bernadotte and even he had some weird family ties through Désirée Clary who was the sister of Julie Bonaparte née Clary. Even so, it only happened because a Swede got a very weird idea while in Paris. I only see Napoléon dismembering Austria if he's on the scene immediately in 1809 and not distracted by any Spanish adventure (assuming no dramatic reversals in 1813 to give him the idea that partition is the only way to deal with Austria). In that case, he might achieve something better than Wagram after the tactical defeat of Aspern-Essling. And then he has Joseph to put on the throne while Murat goes to Naples. Joseph didn't prove half-bad as a reformer while King of Naples so he might look good for Hungary... before, of course, the prickly sensibilities of the Magyar aristocrats about their privileges bring him down.
 
If Napoleon splits up the Habsburg Empires in several small pieces, he needs more than one person. Finding a person should not be a problem, I think. The person does not need to have a family tie. Napoleon himself did not have any royal background, neiter did Bernadotte when he became crown prince of Sweden. I don´t really think it was such a weird idea to pick Bernadotte as heir to the Swedish throne. On the contrary, it was a very wise decision to pick him rather than some incompetent member of a royal family. If they had not picked him, Norway would probably have continued to be part of Denmark. Instead they ended up in personal union with Sweden. This happened mainly because of Bernadotte decided to invade Schleswig and Holstein and use it to pressure Denmark to give up Norway. Napoleon might even pick some person from the territory he makes into a new state.
 
It was a good decision in hindsight. The offer was still made by an absolutely junior diplomat who had no authority to do so and who got imprisoned for it until a commission back in Sweden voted that yes, it was not too terrible an idea, when both Napoléon and Bernadotte had said they were open to it, although it took both of them completely by surprise. It's the equivalent of gekojujō which the lower-ranking officers of the Japanese army practiced in the run-up to WWII, a very dangerous practice when it becomes systemic. And apart from the princes already in place in Germany whose domains he merely consolidated and to whom he often gave a loftier title, Napoléon never chose someone not related to him for a throne. Joseph, Jérôme, Louis and Lucien were his brothers, Murat was his brother-in-law, Eugène was his stepson. His marshals got a nice piece of land to give them some money, a nice princely title and that was it: he kept them under a tight leash.

Anyway, as for Austria: the Provinces Illyriennes are directly integrated into the Empire. Extend them a bit and you've got all the Kingdom of Croatia. Give a somewhat diminished Hungary to his brother Joseph who doesn't have to deal with Spain. Leave Franz I, his newly-minted father-in-law, the Austrian and Tyrolean domains with a heavy indemnity to be paid and the cost of the occupying French troops is his problem (as was Napoléon's wont). Revoke the existence of the Kingdom of Holland a year in advance and task Louis to be a governor of Bohemia with the order that if there's even a whiff of British money getting into Austria again, start with the annexing and maybe combine it with Jérôme's Kingdom of Westphalia.
 
He might of course choose to pick some relative, but the fact that he never chose someone from outside the family cannot in itself rule out that he might choose to do so if it would serve his interests and if he found someone he trusted completely. Anyway, who would be picked as monarch is not really the most important issue when discussing the possible breakup of the Habsburg Empire. The main purpose would be to divide and rule, to avoid a too strong block of enemies against France.
 
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