WI: Napoleon conquered Mexico?

In honor of Cinco de Mayo: How would the Napoleonic Wars have changed if the French had conquered Mexico?

PS: This is my first post, and I'm new to the community, so any helpful advice is welcome.
 
In honor of Cinco de Mayo: How would the Napoleonic Wars have changed if the French had conquered Mexico?

McKobra,

Which Napoleon are you talking about?

Napoleon the First fought the Napoleonic Wars.

Napoleon the Third launched the occupation of Mexico that led to the Battle of Puebla.

There's nearly a fifty year difference between the two events.


Regards,
Bill
 
In honor of Cinco de Mayo: How would the Napoleonic Wars have changed if the French had conquered Mexico?

PS: This is my first post, and I'm new to the community, so any helpful advice is welcome.

Assuming the statement is refering to the First Empire, It would mean the sudugation of Spain first. Apart from the Spanish home land in the Peninsula, the Spanish Empire in the Americas would have to be torn down by France. The best oportunity for a French army would be to start from an "American" base - Louisiana - and by 1803 they had sold this. Next would be an "off shore territory" - the West Indies - an impossible feat as they would need control of the seas, control they lost in 1805. Any other option is to young, the base is insufficiantly developed to mount a military opration from, or the options are just too wild to contemplate (ASB?)
 
Assuming the statement is refering to the First Empire, It would mean the sudugation of Spain first.

I'd say you're missing by miles the bigger obstacle: the French would need to eliminate the Royal Navy threat virtually entirely, no mean feat. Being able to send a fleet to the Caribbean is one thing, doing so with an army on board is quite another - the army generally takes so long to provision, march to port and board that everyone and their mum knows about it, so the RN would have plenty of time to react, just the same as Napoleon's Grande Armee never stood a chance of crossing the Channel - their best idea was to send a whole load of tiny dinghies over at night when "the British couldn't see them", and that was both a stupid idea and an implausible one for crossing the entire Atlantic.

Also, you actually need to find an incentive for Napoleon to take Mexico. I think the potential gains in Europe are enough to keep him going there until either he is very old/dead or he has been defeated and removed from power.
 
I'm assuming you're talking about Napoleon III in 1864.

Realistically there's little chance. The War Between the States lasting longer or ending in a Confederate victory will be much help. If Maximelian uses the fact that Juarez was clamping down on the Church that might manage to bring much of the population over to his side. He needs to create policies that unite the people and the various factions behind him, difficult as that will be. But the US recognized Juarez only, this will be an obsticle he'll never overcome.

Hope this helps...
 
the French would need to eliminate the Royal Navy threat virtually entirely,
Also, you actually need to find an incentive for Napoleon to take Mexico. I think the potential gains in Europe are enough to keep him going there until either he is very old/dead or he has been defeated and removed from power.

I couldnt agree more with both your points!
I was assuming that a small brigade of regulars such as the forces sent to Haiti, together with militia such as those recruited for the battle of New Orleans, could be used - no more than that. Even then, success is highly doubted.
 

mojojojo

Gone Fishin'
Napoleon the Third launched the occupation of Mexico that led to the Battle of Puebla.
Going with this one, how would things have worked out?
 

Germaniac

Donor
Napoleon the Third launched the occupation of Mexico that led to the Battle of Puebla.
Going with this one, how would things have worked out?

Really, really difficult. Once the Union wins, there is little hope for the new Mexican Empire. One possible way is that the North looses the border states to the south in the beginning of the Civil War. The Union will still win but with much more of an effort and a more destructive war. This will cause the Union to be in little condition to stop the new Empire to the South. Another way is widespread civil unrest in the South in the post war basically Slave Uprisings become much more widespread and the North has even more problems in the south with the ex slaves and Whites basically killing each other.

Really the only way to give the Empire a chance you need widespread unrest in the United States and that isn't even starting on the problems in Mexico, Hell you will need entire French armies in there to keep the peace.
 

mojojojo

Gone Fishin'
Really, really difficult. Once the Union wins, there is little hope for the new Mexican Empire. One possible way is that the North looses the border states to the south in the beginning of the Civil War. The Union will still win but with much more of an effort and a more destructive war. This will cause the Union to be in little condition to stop the new Empire to the South. Another way is widespread civil unrest in the South in the post war basically Slave Uprisings become much more widespread and the North has even more problems in the south with the ex slaves and Whites basically killing each other.

Really the only way to give the Empire a chance you need widespread unrest in the United States and that isn't even starting on the problems in Mexico, Hell you will need entire French armies in there to keep the peace.

So no hybrid French/Mexican culture then? How sad, I was wondering what that would have been like?
 

Germaniac

Donor
The Emperor wasn't even French he was a German (Austrian) and he had every intention of keeping Mexico Mexican. He even adopted mexican sons as heirs.
 
That's right, Maximilian had all the intention of becoming as Mexican as he could. There was more French culture influence during the 30 years presidency of Porfirio Díaz.
 
I think the OP is mixing the two. Ayway, this scenario only makes sense if it refers to Nap III, so here we go.

If you look at the map, the French pretty much conquered Mexico in OTL. The problem? It was a pain in the ass to held it. The things Europeans and the French themselves wrote about this war at the time look a lot like how the Vietnam War was seen a century later. And when the ACW ended and an US intervention became a real possibility, it was obvious that France wasn't in a position to continue this doomed crusade and couple it with a full-scale war against the USA.

There are quite some points that might benefy a lot the French, though (not necessarily needed to happen in the same TL):

- Replace Bazaine with another guy. Not bad at the battlefield, but he was an ass out of it. He openly ignored Maximilian and described himself as Mexico's Bernadotte, implying that he would be ever the top head there. When he was recalled to France, he ordered the destruction of all weapons that couldn't get on the French ships, depriving the Mexican imperialists of them just for the sake of it...

- Find another guy for the throne. Maximilian was a liberal fighting liberals and supported by conservatives. Seriously, that wasn't going to work ever. the throne was actually offered to other men that refused: Enrique de Borbón, brother in law of Queen Isabel of Spain was one of them, IIRC. What if him or any other had accepted? Could an actual Spanish-speaing emperor of the last real royal house that ruled Mexico, be better received by more Mexicans?

- Better yet, why not a Mexican? The man planned once to be Agustín II of Mexico was still alive at the time, and had commanded Mexican troops during the Mexican-American War. He was unmarried, but he had nephews (one of them became Maximilian's adopted heir). He really could have been popular and would erase the complaints of "un-Mexican-ess" of the regime from other countries. This looks so dam obvious that Napoleon III strikes me as a complete idiot for passing it over.

- Retain the early Spanish support. Isabel II had toyed for a time with the idea of installing a sister Bourbon monarchy in Mexico. That could have been achieved both with the Enrique option or by rranging the marriage of the heir with one of her infant daughters. In return, Napoleon III receives more troops, more cash and the possibility of using Cuban bases and the idea that the whole matter is a single French adventure driven by greed which in turs condemns France into political isolation is taken away.

- Retain the early British support. This is almost impossible and probably needs a Trent War scenario to work (i.e. France helps Britain in Angloamerica, Britain in turn helps France in Mexico).

- Screw really badly the USA for the next 20 years (i.e. Trent War and/or Confederate victory) while the Empire consolidates.
 
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