WI: Napoleon balkanizes the Habsburg Monarchy/Austrian Empire

3rd Coalition is a somewhat similar situation, though, since Charles still had a large and powerful army in Hungary; the Austrian main army had been deployed in Italy, where Massena hadn't inflicted a decisive defeat yet.

But Russia was out of the picture for a while and Prussia was scared. Napoleon could continue his offensive all the way to Hungary and Austrians in Italy could not easily march out of their theater to Hungary. And Austerlitz (preceded by Ulm) had a moral impact completely different from one of Wagram that was a closely contested battle in which Napoleon did not manage to deliver a crushing blow.
 
But Russia was out of the picture for a while and Prussia was scared. Napoleon could continue his offensive all the way to Hungary and Austrians in Italy could not easily march out of their theater to Hungary. And Austerlitz (preceded by Ulm) had a moral impact completely different from one of Wagram that was a closely contested battle in which Napoleon did not manage to deliver a crushing blow.
As a point of fact, Russia was actually in the war against Austria during the Wagram campaign, Prussia similarly dropped out before the war even began in the 5th Coalition, and Napoleon had run circles around Charles in the Regensberg campaign, but they still could mount a credible defense; Charles' army had already retreated into Hungary (which is why Davout was in Vienna until just a couple days before Austerlitz, needing to observe the main army until the last second), and after a major battle, Napoleon could only mount an offensive winter campaign into Hungary against a large and in tact Austrian army with great difficulty.
 
As a point of fact, Russia was actually in the war against Austria during the Wagram campaign, Prussia similarly dropped out before the war even began in the 5th Coalition, and Napoleon had run circles around Charles in the Regensberg campaign, but they still could mount a credible defense; Charles' army had already retreated into Hungary (which is why Davout was in Vienna until just a couple days before Austerlitz, needing to observe the main army until the last second), and after a major battle, Napoleon could only mount an offensive winter campaign into Hungary against a large and in tact Austrian army with great difficulty.
Well, it can be said that Russia was at war with Austria only formally or that Austerlitz produced a psychological effect absolutely incomparable to Wagram, etc. However, the most important thing (which so far was overlooked) is that the Duchy of Warsaw was created only in 1807 after defeat of Prussia and, as a result, all partitions that are involving it has to be post that time which excludes Austerlitz as PoD.
 
Well, it can be said that Russia was at war with Austria only formally or that Austerlitz produced a psychological effect absolutely incomparable to Wagram, etc. However, the most important thing (which so far was overlooked) is that the Duchy of Warsaw was created only in 1807 after defeat of Prussia and, as a result, all partitions that are involving it has to be post that time which excludes Austerlitz as PoD.

If Austerlitz were the PoD, to which nation would Galicia-Lodomeria and West Galicia go? Napoleon could form an even more rump Poland based around Lublin, although it wouldn't be very helpful considering it wouldn't contain Warsaw. Galicia-Lodomeria was split ethnically between Poles and Ukrainians, and if Napoleon didn't feel like forming an independent Poland, what's the chances he forms a Ukrainian kingdom or a Kingdom of Galicia-Lodomeria that includes both ethnicities?

Were Ukrainians even considered a separate ethnicity to Russians by this point?
 
If Austerlitz were the PoD, to which nation would Galicia-Lodomeria and West Galicia go? Napoleon could form an even more rump Poland based around Lublin, although it wouldn't be very helpful considering it wouldn't contain Warsaw. Galicia-Lodomeria was split ethnically between Poles and Ukrainians, and if Napoleon didn't feel like forming an independent Poland, what's the chances he forms a Ukrainian kingdom or a Kingdom of Galicia-Lodomeria that includes both ethnicities?

Were Ukrainians even considered a separate ethnicity to Russians by this point?

For all practical purposes the Ukrainian nationalism was not there, yet, and Eastern Ukraine was well integrated into the Russian Empire. But Galicia is a different story because for a long time it was under a stronger Polish cultural influence. Of course, you can imagine a rather interesting scenario under which Napoleon offers Galicia to ... Russia as a token of the peaceful intentions and friendship. Of course, Alexander hated Napoleon but the gift of such a size could be difficult to reject.
 
If this is done and the new countries are stable, there is no Congress of Vienna because Napoleon would not lose: Austria as a military factor is almost gone while the newly created states are fighting on Napoleon's side because this is a guarantee of their survival.

Just think how the campaign of 1812 would look like if the Polish state is noticeably bigger (and can contribute on the Southern direction) and the OTL Austrian troops (30K, IIRC) under Prince Schwarzenberg (who was doing pretty much nothing) on the Russian left flank are replaced by more energetically led Hungarians. As a minimum, the Russians would not be free to move the 3rd Army of Tormasov (45K, 168 guns) and the Army of the Danube (55K, 202 guns) to the center all the way to Berezina as freely as they did in OTL. BTW, it is anybody's guess if in that situation Alexander would continue to be openly hostile to Napoleon: he could count on eventually getting Austrian Empire on his side but not a combination of the Czech. Hungarian and Polish states.

As alexmilman said, destroying Austria, giving Galicia to Poland and splitting Hungary off could result in a french victory, this probably means Nappy pacifies Russia and gets to focus on the Peninsula more and gets Portugal. With that in mind I made what I think is a reasonably plausible map of the partition of Austria and Portugal.

napoleon partitions austria.jpg


For Portugal, it's roughly according to Napoleon's plan, only without the unsustainably small Northern Lusitania. It is divided into the kingdom of Portugal and the principality of the Algarves. Hungary, Bohemia and Galicia splitting of are kind of a must if you're going to break up Austria-Hungary. I had Napoleon make Transylvania and the Serbian Voivodeship of Temishvar independent to prevent Hungary from becoming too powerful. The Hungarians would accept this deal because at this point, independence would be more than enough. Ultimately this could result in a larger Hungary, since this Hungarian state would have fewer ethnic minorities than OTL Hungary and Serbs and Romanians would move to their respective states is they didn't like their lives in Hungary. If Slovakia and/or Slavonia broke off, they would still likely be smaller than OTL and either way Transylvania and Vojvodina are smaller so Hungary still ends up larger than OTL. Poland is of course dummy thick.
 
As alexmilman said, destroying Austria, giving Galicia to Poland and splitting Hungary off could result in a french victory, this probably means Nappy pacifies Russia and gets to focus on the Peninsula more and gets Portugal. With that in mind I made what I think is a reasonably plausible map of the partition of Austria and Portugal.

View attachment 463333

For Portugal, it's roughly according to Napoleon's plan, only without the unsustainably small Northern Lusitania. It is divided into the kingdom of Portugal and the principality of the Algarves. Hungary, Bohemia and Galicia splitting of are kind of a must if you're going to break up Austria-Hungary. I had Napoleon make Transylvania and the Serbian Voivodeship of Temishvar independent to prevent Hungary from becoming too powerful. The Hungarians would accept this deal because at this point, independence would be more than enough. Ultimately this could result in a larger Hungary, since this Hungarian state would have fewer ethnic minorities than OTL Hungary and Serbs and Romanians would move to their respective states is they didn't like their lives in Hungary. If Slovakia and/or Slavonia broke off, they would still likely be smaller than OTL and either way Transylvania and Vojvodina are smaller so Hungary still ends up larger than OTL. Poland is of course dummy thick.
The thing is that the Polish population of Cieszyn that is protestant would prefer to be in Poland as I have read before and the italian territories of Austria.
 
The thing is that the Polish population of Cieszyn that is protestant would prefer to be in Poland as I have read before and the italian territories of Austria.

That's that bit on the border with Bohemia, right? I love when people notice such small errors. This is a rough map, but thanks for telling me that, I had no idea.
 
I don't think that a war with Russia could be avoided for very long and I'm not 100% sure that more Poles and Hungarians would be enough to have Nappy winning (Though probably he won't face OTL's disaster.).
I think that the most important thing is the stability of the new borders. Are they going to last? I'm very skeptical.
 
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I don't think that a war with Russia could be avoided for very long and I'm not 100% sure that more Poles and Hungarians would be enough to have Nappy winning (Though probably he won't face a OTL's disaster.).
I think that the most important thing is the stability of the new borders. Are they going to last? I'm very skeptical.
It can be argued (which is not the same as being the fact) that with Austrian power being minimized and Nappy getting more military meaningful allies in the Central/Eastern Europe Alexander could be more cautious about provoking Napoleon.

OTOH, if the war does happen, it is up to Nappy not to screw it up by putting an overwhelming majority of the troops on the Central direction, which was self-defeating logistically. In this AH more troops could be assigned to the Southern flank against Russian 3rd and Danubian armies potentially threatening invasion into the Russian Southern governorships.
 
I think that the most important thing is the stability of the new borders. Are they going to last? I'm very skeptical.

France's border extensions seem unlikely to last without some form of permanent military presence. Following the war, France's pocket of territory within Italy, France's panhandle towards the Baltic Sea, and their Dalmatian holdings probably won't be sticking around. Depending on how good/bad the post-victory fallout is, France might have to drop back to the Rhine.

Hungary's borders, however, are geographically and ethnically defined. I don't think it's stretching to believe that Hungary could become one of the great powers once the dust settles. Considering that France's Dalmatian holdings are pretty untenable, Hungary might even snatch them up. Independent Serbian and Romanian nations might spur on revolt within the Ottoman Empire (at this point the Ottomans are probably scared of French hegemony, which could either push them closer or father away from France).

The Habsburgs and the Prussians are no longer major players on the European stage. Interestingly enough, Denmark-Norway (one of the only countries to willingly ally with Napoleon) would be seeing the time of it's life.

Poland is of course dummy thick.

Along with, of course, Poland.
 
Regardless of whatever proposal what happens, it’s definitely going to hasten the rise of nationalism in those newly independent countries. If Napoleon gets defeated, I seriously doubt that Austria’s empire can ever return to it’s original shape as the dye has been cast.

And assuming the partition of Austria happens, the Ottomans are gonna hate it too. This could allow Napoleon to convince Alexander of Russia to team up against the Ottomans to split the empire for themselves to make the latter feel less hateful against him.
 
I don't quite know if this is possible considering that nationalism was still in its infancy, but what would have happened if Napoleon had at least attempted to balkanize the Habsburg Monarchy / Austrian Empire the same way he had dismembered the Holy Roman Empire?

Napoleon's general strategy seemed to be the balkanization of his enemies, this can be seen in his plans to turn Portugal, Switzerland, and the Holy Roman Empire into smaller countries (one of those plans succeeded).

If Napoleon's victory was so destructive that he could dictate the breaking up of the Habsburg Monarchy / Austrian Empire, how would he redraw the borders of the new countries created in the collapse? If Napoleon still lost, how would these new countries be dealt with at the Congress of Vienna?
I had this same idea! So who would he even place in charge of these nations btw?
 
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If Napoleon is dismantling Austria, Russia is not going to be friendly.

Hmmm I can see the following potentially if the Hungarians refuse to play ball.

  • Napoleon annexes Croatia-Slavonia and Slovene Styria to the Illyrian Provinces. A Kingdom of Illyria is established.
  • Transylvania is made an independent Kingdom. Since the point of Transylvania is to neuter Hungary, I think a western boundary on the Tisza makes sense.
  • Warsaw gets Galicia-Lodomeria and the Protestant Polish bits of Austrian Silesia. Warsaw's name is changed to Poland.
  • Bukovina goes to either Transylvania or Poland.
  • I'm not really sure what to make of the Slovaks. Did they have a national consciousness yet? I suppose he could create a new Duchy of Nitra. Nitra was a Polish vassal from 1001-1030. Maybe Poland could get Slovakia.

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I marked off Slovakia and Bukovina because I was unsure of what to make of them. The issue I think with creating Slovakia is that it'd be pretty much creating a country from scratch. All the local nobility are Hungarian. Even annexing it to Poland seems like a bit of a headache, although I don't think that'd be impossible. I wonder if Poland would be able to maximize the use of Slovakia.

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I kind of like this Warsaw + Galicia + Bukovina + Slovakia = Mega Poland. It's funny-looking in a good way. I wonder if all the troops it raises on top of what Warsaw raised OTL would be Polish, or if there'd be a sizable number of Ruthenes, Slovaks, and Romanians as well.

The big downside for Poland is that Slovakia's on the other side of the Carpathians.
Bohemia could be ceded to Bavaria as well, while Austria would probably join the Rhine.
 
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