WI: Napoleon avoids his "Greatest Mistake"

John Fredrick Parker said:
Maybe this will be easier to judge if we get more specific: my rough idea is for the Peace of Amiens to hold (though tentatively at times) for about six years, until hostilities are renewed about 1808. In OTL, this was when the Mutiny of Aranjuez led the Spanish monarchy to seek Napoleon's help, and for Nappy in turn to install his brother -- I'm thinking this happens TTL, and leads to war with Britain.

Six years, I believe, is enough time for the FE to reinforce troops in the WH, and build up something of a navy in the region -- at least big enough to give the RN headaches while the FIA (French Imperial Army) creates havoc on the continent.

How does this sound?

The peace of Amiens will be hard to held on for six years. It hardly held for three years before the Brits broke it up and Napoleon started his idea of invading Britain.

Besides, between 1801 and 1808, Napoleon had to face the third and fourth coalition in which he crushed Austria and Russia at Austerlitz (1805) and Prussia at Iena-Auersterd (1806). Both of those coalitions had the financial contribution of Britain.

Even if Amiens holds, I'm not sure it will butterfly away the opposition of Russia, Austria and Prussia. With this taken, the Brits will be very tempted to broke the peace and form those coalitions.
 
The peace of Amiens will be hard to held on for six years. It hardly held for three years before the Brits broke it up and Napoleon started his idea of invading Britain.

Besides, between 1801 and 1808, Napoleon had to face the third and fourth coalition in which he crushed Austria and Russia at Austerlitz (1805) and Prussia at Iena-Auersterd (1806). Both of those coalitions had the financial contribution of Britain.

AIUI, Britain was actually an active participant in the War of the Third Coalition, and that a large part of the reason the Peace fell apart was Napoleon's Haitian invasion and arrest of Touissant.

Yes, there was also the matter of British troops on Malta, and Nappy's meddling in the Netherlands, but this is hardly the pavement needed for a spiraling warpath; in fact, I'd say no Haitian invasion butterflies into Talleyrand's advice being heeded, and so further absence of causus belli -- for the time being.

Even if Amiens holds, I'm not sure it will butterfly away the opposition of Russia, Austria and Prussia. With this taken, the Brits will be very tempted to broke the peace and form those coalitions.

Well, Prussia tried to remain neutral at first, and wasn't in the Third Coalition, so their animosity may be easily butterflied out; that really just leaves Austria and Russia (post Tsar Paul assasination). And I know Alexander hated Nappy, but would he want to be Francis' only ally so soon after coming to power the way he did? (Well, then again, he is the Tsar... :rolleyes:)

At any rate, if Britain and Prussia keep the peace, and Russia hesitates (even for a relatively short period) to do so, that leaves the HRE facing the FE alone; my guess, Francis decides not to risk it, and reaches a peace with the man he despises so much. (He'd be doing himself a favor -- this wouldn't be nearly as bad for Austria or the HRE as the Peace of Pressberg OTL.)

Granted, all this peace would be very tentative -- and it may be that six years is too long for countries that hate each other this much to stay away from each others throats completely -- but even if incidents break out in the years ahead, the treaty would get harder to break as the peace between Britain and France lasts longer.

And even if the agreement breaks down before 1808, it may take some time for it collapses into a full war; until that happens, the FE needn't worry about British meddling in their fortifications.
 
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