WI: Napoleon and Alexander drown at Tilsit?

In 1807, while signing the treaty of tilsit, the raft overturns drowning everyone on board. How would this change the course of European history, with the leaders of two major countries in Europe are dead? I would imagine Napoleon's empire to crumble much sooner, but how might this also change Russian history as well?
 
...... :eek:eek::eek::eek you have done a very evil thing, Nappy dies.... Butterflies are huge, we have a survivng HRE..... No Invasion of Russia, no devastation of Austria, This is a France and Russia screw because Alexander I was a very important character in Russian history....
 
If I remember correctly, Napoleon's brother Joseph was heir to the throne in 1807 before the divorce of Josephine and the subsequent Habsburg marriage.

Could the Emperor Joseph I have held the French empire together? I don't think he had the military skills his brother possessed. France might have been better off with Joseph. It would not have been weaked by the subsequent wars which included the Russian invasion.
 
...... :eek:eek::eek::eek you have done a very evil thing, Nappy dies.... Butterflies are huge, we have a survivng HRE..... No Invasion of Russia, no devastation of Austria, This is a France and Russia screw because Alexander I was a very important character in Russian history....


The Holy Roman Empire was already dead having experienced its demise on 6 August 1806 with the abdication of the last emperor.
 
Joseph certainly doesn't have the skills of Napoleon though I'm sure this alone can end the conflict altogether and end with some sort of deal favorable to the French empire and its vassal states.
 
Alexander's younger brother Grand Duke Constantine would have been the new Tsar. Wonder if he would have been any better than Nicholas I?


Yeah.... But that would butterfly away Alexander II the great reformer of Russia, meaning Russia is going to remain absoulutist and conservative leading to major screwage, Otl was bad enough but this TL Alexander II makes no liberal reforms..... Huge butterflies that creates, so it is a Russia screw.... Also nappy was just like another Tamer, or Genghis, or Alexander he was a military leader whose will held together the vast French empire with him dead see various factions jockeying for power and the Whole empire splitting apart leading to a major Britwank.... While also becoming a slight Austria wank.......... Maybe Prussia wank, but definatly a. France and Russia screw..
 
How did Joseph Bonaparte and Talleyrand get along? If Joseph would listen to the advice of that arch-survivor, is it possible he might survive himself?
 
In 1807, while signing the treaty of tilsit, the raft overturns drowning everyone on board. How would this change the course of European history, with the leaders of two major countries in Europe are dead? I would imagine Napoleon's empire to crumble much sooner, but how might this also change Russian history as well?

Good one!

I don't think Joseph can last. But without a military defat the republic migth be restored.
Constantine was very liberal himself IIRC.
I wonder what the British will do?
 
If Napoleon were to die at Tilsit, the French have a major problem : Napoleon has no heir. That means Joseph Bonaparte (who is already King of Naples at that time) would succeed his brother.
Joseph was quite intelligent and probably not all that bad a politician. However, I don't think he was really popular but that is probably due to the fact he suffered from the comparison with his brother (who largely overshadowed him). Because of this, I'm not really sure he can keep the French Empire in place. Not to mention he only had two daughters OTL, which would not ensure his succession.

On a side note, the Kingdom of Italy which Napoleon had created could have a different monarch : Napoleon's stepson, Eugene de Beauharnais. Eugene was Viceroy of Italy and, if I'm not wrong, he had already been promised the kingdom provided Napoleon hadn't got two sons. Eugene was far from being incompetent and stupid, so I think he could do go good things for Italy.

As for the death of Alexander I, this would bring his brother, Grand Duke Contstantine, to the throne as Czar. Unless of course Constantine chooses to refuse as he did OTL after Alexander's death, in which case we have an earlier reign of Nicholas I of Russia and maybe an earlier Decembrist crisis.
 
Wery big butterflies to the north. No treaty means no invasion if Finland and that means no overthrow of Gustaf IV Adolf of Sweden and that means no Bernadotte on the Swedish throne. No Napoleon loosing means no Swedish army in Germany that goes up in Denmark. Denmark-Norway still exist as well as Sweden-Finland
 
Constantine was very liberal himself IIRC.

Well, the evidence for that is kind of iffy. He was a rather ruthless viceroy in Poland, supressing the liberal opposition there.

Where he might be interesting is in his foreign policy. He seems to have been a francophile and great admirer of Napoleon who opposed the war against the French Emperor in 1812, and urged peace even after Nappy took Moscow itself. He also opposed the campaign by which the Russian army followed Nappy out of Russia back to France, ultimately leading to Nappy's abdication in 1814. A firm alliance with Russia may be just what Joseph needs to stay on the throne. Together, France and Russia may be able to dominate the continent in tandem.
 
Even if Constantine declined the throne, he's stuck as Imperial Regent - Nicholas is 13 years old, Constantine is the only adult male of the House. Under those circumstances, it's hard to imagine why he would abdicate. Although I for one don't think it impossible or even unlikely that Constantine or his heirs could produce a reformer.

Joseph wasn't the soldier his brother was, which to my mind is good for France; France can probably defend for a long time if it doesn't squander its resources in Russia and Spain. Russian support can keep things stable for a while - but Constantine dies in 1831. I suspect his son wouldn't be nearly as capable or visionary. Joseph may be screwed then, although support for a Bourbon restoration may be exceedingly thin by then.

Joseph's heir under Salic law would be Lucien, yes? Napoleon had already barred Lucien and his line from the throne of France, but not, I think, from Naples. Joseph would want him anyway. Could he get away with unbarring Lucien for France do you think?
 
Napoleon once said something like that unlike the rulers from established dynasties he permanently had to justify his reign by new victories.

The Empire had an constitution designed so that it looked democratic but a strong, popular Emporer could do as he pleased. Joseph who lacked his brothers charisma and leadership abilities might get into trouble with the 4 different parliaments.

Does anybody know how Josephs was geting along with his brothers marshals? The support of the military might prove critical.
 
. Russian support can keep things stable for a while - but Constantine dies in 1831.

Grand Duke Constantine died of Cholera on 27 June 1831 at Vitebsk after serving several years as unofficial viceroy of Poland.

If he is Tsar in 1807, his early death from cholera is probably butterflied away. He may survive into the 1850s.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Does anybody know how Josephs was geting along with his brothers marshals? The support of the military might prove critical.

This would be before the campaigns in Spain had caused the marshals to hold Joseph in utter contempt, but I doubt they would have thought very highly of him. Murat and Bernadotte would probably have started scheming a way to obtain the throne for themselves the moment word of Napoleon's death arrived.
 
Joseph does not have the charisma nor the political skills to reign as Emperor. The marshall will overthrow him in no time
The Bourbons are still unpopular. I could picture Fouche and Talleyrand making an alliance with Eugene de Beauharnais. Eugene will command the loyalty of an important part of the army and keep the rest in line. He is clever and could probably reach an agreement with the Europeans Power
 
Consider Naples: Josheph would have to give up with it in order to make peace.
Well, actually only Russia, Britain and (i think) Portugal are at war with France in this moment, but Austria will probably join. Russia would negotiate, but outright support to France is unlikely, unless they hope to grab something from the Austrians. It wouldn't be that wise, however: that's upsetting the balance, and till this very moment Russia had been fighting exactly to stop france doing so. Alexander did care of that enough to make Prussia survive at Tilsit.
The big game for the Russians now, if France could be handled reasonably, is the war with the Turks. Constantine held that name because Catherine the great was dreaming about him as the would-be Emperor of a revived Byzantine Empire. In Constantinople, of course.
In OTL Tilsit Napoleon forced Alexander to retreat from the Balkans, where the Russians were occupying most on Danubian principalities and were going to help the Serbs in their uprising. Russia also held Kotor in present day Montenegro.
Joseph could not even dream of asking that, or anything else indeed. He will leave the Turks alone (not that Napoleon really cared about them so much actually) and will make the quickiest possible peace with the Tsar, even more so with Austria jumping at his throat and half the German principalities likely in rebellion.
By around 1810-12 you may probably have
a) a treaty signed somewhere in Bulgaria securing independence for Serbia and probably Greece and giving Russia a large chunk of Eastern Balkans and Turkish Armenia, at least everything north the Danube,

OR

b) the Russians pushing even more, so triggering a war with Austria and Britain (France may be on Russian side). That's the "Constatine proves himself an idiot" case. Well, he may think "Austria is exausted out of previous wars, Britain has France to deal with, let's talk with the Americans and try". He's even a little hope of winning that war and being crowned in Constanople, IF the Anglo-American is not butterflied away AND it gets more bitter than OTL. Hell, a very little hope in any case.
 
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