WI: N-1 program started in 1961?

As we all know the N-1 rocket was a complete disaster. The Soviet Union waited untill 1964 to approve the N1-L3 program which promised to land humans on the Moon before the American's Apollo program. In addition to this late start, the Soviets under-funded the N1-L3 program from the very start. If the Soviet leadership had taken Kennedy's commitment seriously and it translated into action (as well as hard rubles) could the Soviets beat the Americans? It would atleast be close (sometime in 1969).

Maybe Voskhod-3 flies it's 18-21 day long duration mission in 1966 in preparation for lunar flights (which last 8-14 days).

The earliest the Soyuz was proven to be safe for Manned Spaceflight was the Kosmos 186 and 188 missions (which also proved their docking reliability as well) in October 1967. So pehaps Soyuz 1 and 2 during the celebration of the 60th anniversary of the October revolution (performing a Soyuz 4/5 like joint docking and crew exchange)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosmos_186

Joint Soyuz-LK docking missions in LEO around 1968? Launched seperatly by R-7 rockets.

Also, how would this effect the Soyuz 7K-L1 circumlunar missions? Would they still fly on the UR-500/Proton, or would Korolev's Soyuz-A complex (utilizing 5 R-7 launches) be attempted instead?
 

Delta Force

Banned
The Soviet Union was a centrally planned state. 1961 would have been the third year of the Seventh Plan, which ran from 1959 to 1965. It would be difficult to insert something right in the middle of the economic plan, especially something as complex and expensive as the N-1. The rocket either has to be approved in 1959 or wait until the Eighth Plan in 1966. The Eighth Plan ran from 1966 to 1970, so it's possible a Soviet lunar program would stretch into the Ninth Plan (from 1971 to 1975). It isn't impossible for the Soviets to approve a program that early, but they might not see the need for it at the time. To put in a historical and comparative perspective, the first rocket of the Saturn family was approved around that time frame, but that was several years before the plan for landing on the Moon had been decided upon and several years before anyone would even fly in space.

Alternatively, you could butterfly the economic plan. It looks like the Seventh Plan (from 1959 to 1965) overlapped with or replaced the last two years of the Sixth Plan (scheduled from 1956 to 1960).
 
If it started earlier, then maybe the engineers might have ironed out the system so the booster worked. I'm still skeptical about that many motors. It's just that many more things that can break. I understand the reasoning behind them (if one or two go out in flight, big deal. There would still be another 40 running).

I think what would aid the Soviets is actually having a plan. In Moonlab, I had the Soviets eventually reaching the moon by the time NASA was ready to start project Moonlab. I really need to rewrite that one.
 
In OTL the N-1 was authorized in August 1964. So this means it's right at the end of the seventh plan. In 1960 Kennedy hasn't yet announced his plan to send men to the Moon, this makes it significantly less likely the Soviets would approve the N1-L3 program at that time. However the N-1 was a working vehicle design in 1959/1960. Korolev even sent a letter to Khruschev and the Communist Party promising a manned lunar orbital mission in 1965 if they approved in 1960. I'm skeptical it could have moved that quickly, 1967 would be more likely if the program started in 1960. If it started in 1961, a 1968 landing might occure, 1962 (well over a year behind the Americans with riskier tech) is the latest date for program start that'l have them on the Moon by 69. Also, in OTL the LK and Soyuz were ready to launch. So if any of the N1 test launches had succeeded they could put a Soyuz, LK lander and EDS unmanned into a parking orbit. On the off chance one succeeded the crew could then be launched in a Soyuz on a R-7 to rendezvous with the L3 complex. After transfering to the L3 the crew perform the TLI burn abandoning their orignal Soyuz spacecraft in LEO. This approach means you wouldn't have to man-rate the N-1, as long as a single test launch succeeded the program could be a success (you just keep a Soyuz+R-7+crew on standbye).

So assuming program start in 1962 You'd see a program more or less like this.

Vostok 1: 1961
Vostok 2: 1961
Vostok 3&4: 1962
Vostok 5&6: 1963
Voskhod 1: 1964
Voskhod 2: 1965
Voskhod 3: 1966
Soyuz unmanned tests (designated Kosmos):1967
Manned Soyuz 1&2 rendezvous/docking: October 1967
Manned Soyuz 7K-L1 circumlunar mission, 1967
First N-1 tests (unsuccessful) 1967
More unmanned N-1 tests (varying degrees of success). 1968
More Manned Soyuz missions, LK lander tests in LEO 1968
N1-L3 lunar landing 1969.
 
When the N1 exploded and destroyed the launch complex how long would it take to rebuild? I'm thinking that it's all well and good to have the N1 under test in 1968, but if the launch complex is wiped out for over a year then the programme is in trouble.
 
When the N1 exploded and destroyed the launch complex how long would it take to rebuild? I'm thinking that it's all well and good to have the N1 under test in 1968, but if the launch complex is wiped out for over a year then the programme is in trouble.

It took them 18 months to rebuild the Launch Complex for another launch attempt IOTL. Caused because when N1-5L crashed onto the pad, it was still almost fully fuelled. The resultant explosion was picked up on US Spy Satellites specifically tuned to detect Nuclear Detonations.
 
That's a massive setback, even if they sorted out the problems that made the rocket explode they couldn't launch the next one until the facilities were rebuilt, at great expense.
 
If the program started about the same time as Apollo (1961) then the TL would be even better (for the USSR anyway).

1965: first unmanned test flights of the Soyuz
1966: Manned Soyuz 1 & 2 Docking/Crew Exchange.
1966: first Unmanned N-1 tests (unsuccessful)

If one of these early flights destroyed the pad, then the program would be set back so that the next flights happen in mid-late 1967. I should also add that it's quite possible that the second N-1 launch failed without destroying the pad. That was basically the worst possible way the flight could fail.

More N-1 flights continue 1967-1969.

First Soyuz 7K-L1 Circumlunar flight in 1966?

I could see the first of the redesigned N1F launches in 1969. IOTL they were going to fly in 1974 but were cancelled in May of that year from a change in leadership in OKB-1. By 1974 they had ironed out the problems that caused the N-1 to fail and it should have been fairely reliable from that point on. Hence I don't see why a program that started 4 years earlier and didn't have an accident that set them back a further 1.5 years couldn't have the N1F ready in 1968/1969.

Just in time to beat (or atleast come close) to the Americans. IMHO the main reason the Soviet's failed to make it to the Moon was that they really were too late when they started the program in 1964 (really in 1965 considering little work happened before that).
 
Work on the N1 really started in 1965 and they had the N1F ready in 1974 (third quarter). If we assume the pad isn't destroyed in one of the launches (there are many other ways it could have failed) then the N1F would have been ready in 1973 (first quarter). That's just eight years. If the program was started in 1961 (four years earlier) then I could see a N1F ready in the first quarter of 1969. Apollo 11 landed in July (end of the second quarter or begining of the third).

The N1F was the more reliable N1 that learned from their prior mistakes. It likely would have worked if Glushko hadn't cancelled it months before flight.
 
IIRC, with the N-1 program's budget limitations (as well as time pressure) there was neither time nor funding available to do the kinds of comprehensive tests of the engines and other systems that were done in the Saturn program. The N-1 had huge numbers of engines because the individual engines were far less powerful than the American F-1 rocket engine, so I would hope at least that the smaller Soviet engines were static tested--but possibly even that step was skipped? In any case, the Saturn program included static firing of an ensemble of 5 engines arranged as they would be on the first stage; the analogous project in Russia would mean assembling an array of 40 engines in the same confines the N-1 booster stage would have, which is clearly a gargantuan project!:eek:

However if they had had time and resources to include such testing in the plan, I daresay the N-1 might have been made to work well enough. It means that it will not do to say that if the plan is OK'd in 1961 instead of '64 that it will be three years ahead; some, perhaps all, of that time would be needed to do the extra steps. But if that were done, then at the end of it there might be a flyable rocket design after all, one that does not destroy the launching pad and does succeed in launching heavy payloads into Earth orbit.

From what I understand of the Soviet organizational culture and the role space exploration played in Kremlin politics, I doubt one could project this outcome without a POD going back perhaps as far as Stalin's death or even before, to make the commitment to following through on space goals and progressive advances there stronger and to establish a stronger space organization instead of the competitive and mercurial rivalries and fads of OTL.

It's actually hard for me to imagine a more staunch supporter of a space effort emerging to take power in the Soviet system than OTL Nikita Khrushchev. And it is hard to see how he could avoid his fall from power in the mid-60s, which threw what organization there was into disarray. Perhaps if he had hit on more successful economic reforms and avoided the Cuban Missile Crisis, he might have hung on and had more resources to funnel Sergei Korolev's way--and perhaps the Chief Designer might not have died on the operating table too. But all of this is long shots--and if Khrushchev had not precipitated the Missile Crisis American-Soviet relations might have been more strained. Ironically the manner in which Kennedy and Khrushchev got together OTL to talk each other down from the crisis was crucial in opening better communications between them! I suppose though that if the Soviets had never attempted to put missiles in Cuba in the first place, the two leaders might, over a longer time (especially if no Missiles of October somehow butterflies the Kennedy assassination) find their way to a detente anyway, one that would not be disrupted by leadership changes on both sides. (I still think Kennedy would have wound up as bogged down in Vietnam as Johnson did). But even avoiding the Caribbean mess and with the Soviet economy performing somewhat better, that doesn't much improve the situation in the USSR circa 1961, nor is there much prospect of a less fratricidal, more cooperative and better organized Soviet space effort. Some of the conflict was due to personality clashes and ambitious empire-building; but other aspects of it boiled down to serious fundamental issues. The Soviet military favored development of hypergolic "storable" fuel based rockets such as the Proton as these fuels were more sensible for their missile programs; this weakened Korolev's position as he tried to avoid them in favor of kerosene-liquid oxygen systems. IMHO I'm on Korolev's side here, for space launches, but the advantages his rivals who were more willing than he to go with the same sorts of engines the military wanted anyway enjoyed should be obvious. Even if an ATL USSR would be richer than OTL come 1970, that wealth was not yet evident in 1961 and so a decision by top leadership to devote extra resources to a space program that in no way would yield any direct strategic benefits seems doubtful. Nor is there any guarantee that even if he had those extra resources and an early start relieved him of time pressure, that Korolev would necessarily have used them wisely and performed the necessary tests. And to be sure, though it might have been made workable, the N-1 design was certainly inherently risky--bigger than a Saturn V, yet less capable.

I've wondered elsewhere whether Korolev might have gotten somewhere with an incremental improvement on the R-7 rockets than OTL the early Soviet space program and to this day the entire Soviet/Russian manned program has relied on. Essentially the same rocket that launched Sputnik I is today carrying cosmonauts and Western astronauts to the ISS! Though current designs are indeed a stretch of that old rocket, intended to be an ICBM, I wonder why there weren't more ambitious increments of it earlier. Say the cluster of booster engines at the bottom were increased from 4 to 6, for a total of 7 engines, and the stages stretched accordingly--might the expanded rocket be a more suitable workhorse for LEO missions, including multiple launch assembly of a moonship there? If we can imagine the N-1 being nixed completely but the funds allocated for it being shifted over to this improved rocket and to Soyuz development, might we not see more accomplishments, sooner?

I tried to work out a possible mission profile, involving gradual accumulation of hypergolic fuel tanks and engines in LEO, and a final double launch of the manned elements plus a hydrogen-oxygen Lunar insertion stage, for an EOR-LOR mission to land a single cosmonaut on the moon then quickly return him to Lunar orbit.
 

Delta Force

Banned
IIRC, with the N-1 program's budget limitations (as well as time pressure) there was neither time nor funding available to do the kinds of comprehensive tests of the engines and other systems that were done in the Saturn program. The N-1 had huge numbers of engines because the individual engines were far less powerful than the American F-1 rocket engine, so I would hope at least that the smaller Soviet engines were static tested--but possibly even that step was skipped? In any case, the Saturn program included static firing of an ensemble of 5 engines arranged as they would be on the first stage; the analogous project in Russia would mean assembling an array of 40 engines in the same confines the N-1 booster stage would have, which is clearly a gargantuan project!:eek:

The Soviets either tested fired the engines individually or in a stack assembly (I forget which, but I think it was individually). In any case, once they were tested at the factory they were broken down for rail transport to the launch site, where they were mounted on the N-1. They did not test fire assembled N-1s prior to flight, so in some ways every flight was a test firing.

Also, the lower stage had 30 engines, not 40. I think at one point the rocket had 24 engines before they decided to put a ring of six in the center of the rocket, similar to how the Saturn ended up with its own center engine. I guess both rocket designers went for a cheap and easy way to boost thrust by 25%.
 
Form my view-point the N1 rocket is just one piece of the puzzle. Grumman had a really hard time with the design and the building of the Lunar Lander. I really don't see why the Soviet's would have any less trouble. Their lunar lander is smaller but they would still have a lot of the same challenges.
 
The Soviets either tested fired the engines individually or in a stack assembly (I forget which, but I think it was individually). In any case, once they were tested at the factory they were broken down for rail transport to the launch site, where they were mounted on the N-1. They did not test fire assembled N-1s prior to flight, so in some ways every flight was a test firing.

Also, the lower stage had 30 engines, not 40. I think at one point the rocket had 24 engines before they decided to put a ring of six in the center of the rocket, similar to how the Saturn ended up with its own center engine. I guess both rocket designers went for a cheap and easy way to boost thrust by 25%.

They could only test the NK-15 individually. Furthermore, the NK-15 was a single-fire engine meaning that in order to check it, they built them in batches and tested some of the batch, meaning the NK-15s that powered the N1 Block A were fired for their first time.

IOTL, the ESA Ariane 4 did this from 1998-2003, but only because by then they had the confidence to do so.


Form my view-point the N1 rocket is just one piece of the puzzle. Grumman had a really hard time with the design and the building of the Lunar Lander. I really don't see why the Soviet's would have any less trouble. Their lunar lander is smaller but they would still have a lot of the same challenges.

True. Yangal (who made the LK IOTL) couldn't get it built in time to beat the USA to the Moon, in fact, he only got it to LEO tests in 1971 IIRC.
 
30, or whatever the actual number was, of engines when you dont have sophisticated computer controls, which the Soviets didnt is a nightmare. At best, the loss of a single engine means the loss of two (since the Soviets paired those engines for balance, one on each side).

Im really afraid I just cant see any version of the N1 being manrateable.
 
30, or whatever the actual number was, of engines when you dont have sophisticated computer controls, which the Soviets didnt is a nightmare. At best, the loss of a single engine means the loss of two (since the Soviets paired those engines for balance, one on each side).

Im really afraid I just cant see any version of the N1 being manrateable.

Do the Soviets really care about man-rating?
 

Dirk_Pitt

Banned
So Kennedy picked the perfect time to announce the goal of America landing men on the moon without realizing it? Interesting
 
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