WI Mussolini won't leave Majorca?

I doubt that it would persuade Franco to join the Axis, but Hitler and Mussolini could use Italy's possession of the Balearic Islands as a bargaining chip in their negotiations with Spain. That is, if you declare war on Britain, you can have them back.

The only military advantage it gives to them June 1940 is a base further west than Sardinia so it is easier to attack Gibraltar and the convoys between there and Malta. However, they might not have enough merchant shipping to use it effectively.

my understanding is that Italian entry into WWII was fairly close call?

wonder the effect if Axis have major squabble over the Balearic Islands, not an outright war but close. could envision fiasco for Italy if the Spanish population resists strongly.

Mussolini calls the whole thing off and remains (or is forced) to remain neutral.
 
my understanding is that Italian entry into WWII was fairly close call?

wonder the effect if Axis have major squabble over the Balearic Islands, not an outright war but close. could envision fiasco for Italy if the Spanish population resists strongly.

Mussolini calls the whole thing off and remains (or is forced) to remain neutral.
Trying to conquer Spain in and of itself is ASB. OTL he could have taken the Balearic Islands and Spanish Morocco without much trouble and with justification, but he didn't.
 
Trying to conquer Spain in and of itself is ASB. OTL he could have taken the Balearic Islands and Spanish Morocco without much trouble and with justification, but he didn't.

think Morocco would be impossible, facing Spanish, French, local tribes, and probably British navy.

seriously question whether Italy would be able to subdue an active resistance on the Balearics (with over half million population)

(never meant to suggest or imply an invasion of Spain mainland)
 
think Morocco would be impossible, facing Spanish, French, local tribes, and probably British navy.

seriously question whether Italy would be able to subdue an active resistance on the Balearics (with over half million population)

(never meant to suggest or imply an invasion of Spain mainland)
Spanish Morrocco. I doubt France and Britain would get involved if their colonies aren't at risk. They have bigger things to worry about.

Half a million is it's current population. Not it's population in the 30's and 40's.
 
what if at the end of Spanish Civil War the Italians REALLY do attempt to occupy the Balearic Islands? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_occupation_of_Majorca

(similar to their occupation of Dodecanese at the other end of the Med http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Islands_of_the_Aegean)

Italy annexed the Dodecanese as sovereign territory after defeating Turkey in a war. Italy cannot do that to Spain. Italy can just seize the Balearics, and Spain cannot resist, but it would be an extremely ugly thing for Italy to do.

Spain would become bitterly anti-Italian, and thus pro-Allied. Spain would stay out of the war if Italy remained neutral, and also after France was crushed, but unlike OTL would not cooperate with German intelligence, or provide the volunteer Division Azul for the Eastern Front.

The Balearic Islands would allow Italy to dominate the western Mediterranean. Any Allied ships going from Gibraltar to Malta would be under air attack starting over 500 km west of OTL. Aircraft ferry missions would be extremely risky.

This would make the North Africa campaign harder for the Allies.

Supposing the Allies decided on an Operation FLARE to gain control of French North Africa; they would not dare land inside the Mediterranean. Oran, the first target east of Spanish Morocco, is less than 400 km from the Balearics. The Allies would have to land in Morocco only and move west overland.

Once the Allies had Algeria, there would have to be an invasion of the Balearics before any other moves.

An alternate form would be if Italy did not annex the islands, but merely bullied Spain into allowing an Italian base there. This has military and diplomatic complications.

In the post-war world, having forces of one country based in the territory of another has been commonplace. In 1940 it was unusual. If the basing power went to war, there might be battles between them and their enemies in the host country's territories, with the host country not involved. Aside from Egypt I can't think of any WW II examples.

If the Allies invade the Balearics to take the Italian bases, that might lead to war with Spain. It might be only a de jure war, with the Spanish refusing to take sides.
 
Trying to conquer Spain in and of itself is ASB. OTL he could have taken the Balearic Islands and Spanish Morocco without much trouble and with justification, but he didn't.

Spanish Morrocco. I doubt France and Britain would get involved if their colonies aren't at risk. They have bigger things to worry about.

Half a million is it's current population. Not it's population in the 30's and 40's.

o.k. Wiki gives the pop. circa 1939 as half million http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_occupation_of_Majorca

doubt Italy would be able to occupy Spanish controlled sections of (present day) Morocco without conflict with French troops there http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_protectorate_in_Morocco

a clear target of their moves would be British base at Gibraltar, we could guess at their reaction but probably they would have negative one towards large Italian fleet operating near there?
 
o.k. Wiki gives the pop. circa 1939 as half million http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_occupation_of_Majorca

doubt Italy would be able to occupy Spanish controlled sections of (present day) Morocco without conflict with French troops there http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_protectorate_in_Morocco

a clear target of their moves would be British base at Gibraltar, we could guess at their reaction but probably they would have negative one towards large Italian fleet operating near there?
1) Alright. Maybe, but how many of that half a million are women and children and where are they going to get the weapons?

2) I don't see why not? If the Italians don't attack French Morocco, the French have bigger things to deal with. Hitlers getting ready to strike.


3) Target? The Italians didn't have the leadership or military efficiency to successfully take Gibraltar on it's own.
 
Italy annexed the Dodecanese as sovereign territory after defeating Turkey in a war. Italy cannot do that to Spain. Italy can just seize the Balearics, and Spain cannot resist, but it would be an extremely ugly thing for Italy to do.

Spain would become bitterly anti-Italian, and thus pro-Allied. Spain would stay out of the war if Italy remained neutral, and also after France was crushed, but unlike OTL would not cooperate with German intelligence, or provide the volunteer Division Azul for the Eastern Front.

An alternate form would be if Italy did not annex the islands, but merely bullied Spain into allowing an Italian base there. This has military and diplomatic complications.

in early 1939 Italy is not yet wartime ally of Germany, my speculation was if this turned into earlier version of Greek invasion? and given history of Italy switching loyalties?

possible Germany attempts to mediate or deny Italian invasion (IIRC they DID stop Italian invasion of Yugoslavia in 1940?)

of course this is also before (successful) invasion of France, Nazi regime might covet access to same territories as Mussolini in Morocco and Spanish Guinea? a second front against France? (even if just a feint)
 
Top