WI: Mussolini overthrown in 1941 or 1942, before invasion of Sicily?

Deleted member 97083

What if Mussolini was deposed much earlier than OTL, any time from July 1941 to December 1942?

Would the Italian Fascist government collapse and if so, would there be a German invasion? If so, would said German invasion restore Mussolini or replace him (formally or de facto) with a different leader? If Mussolini was restored with German backing, would he be more powerless than he was from OTL 1943?

In such a scenario, would the Allies invade Sicily earlier, or would Germany likely secure Italy quickly enough that a viable invasion wouldn't be prepared?

By 1943, would the Allies be ready to invade Sicily as OTL?

What would happen to Italian troops in Africa? Would they keep fighting the Allies or surrender?
 

Deleted member 97083

knightdepaix said:
Do you mean before the DoW or after
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Any time from July 1941 to December 1942, so after all of the declarations of war by Italy and after Germany is preoccupied with invading the Soviet Union.

It could be before or after the American declaration of war on Italy.
 
SealTheRealDeal

SealTheRealDeal

Achaemenid Rome said:
What if Mussolini was deposed much earlier than OTL, any time from July 1941 to December 1942?

Would the Italian Fascist government collapse and if so, would there be a German invasion? If so, would said German invasion restore Mussolini or replace him (formally or de facto) with a different leader? If Mussolini was restored with German backing, would he be more powerless than he was from OTL 1943?

In such a scenario, would the Allies invade Sicily earlier, or would Germany likely secure Italy quickly enough that a viable invasion wouldn't be prepared?

By 1943, would the Allies be ready to invade Sicily as OTL?

What would happen to Italian troops in Africa? Would they keep fighting the Allies or surrender?
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Who's giving him the boot?

If it's the King, then he will probably be suing for peace and at bare minimum only permitting Italian forces to engage in defensive operations while they await evacuation to Italy. A few extra divisions in italy, especially experienced divisions which had been serving abroad, would probably make Achse impossible.

If it's fascist infighting then Hitler probably had a hand in it.
 

Carl Schwamberger

Collapse of a Fascist government would be slow since there war no effective competition. If Italy negotiates a armistice the Fascist party is liable to remain in power until the war with Germany ends & post war other parties have recovered some traction. May also require the Facist party to split from internal infighting.
 

thaddeus

Donor
can imagine Mussolini being assassinated at some point but there would need to be some significant POD for the Fascist party to remove him? not sure what bigger disaster that could be? also there would need to be some calculus of German vs. Allied strength?
 

Carl Schwamberger

thaddeus said:
can imagine Mussolini being assassinated at some point but there would need to be some significant POD for the Fascist party to remove him? not sure what bigger disaster that could be? ...
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Much of the timing in Mussolinis removal had to do with how effectively he had neutered any possible opposition in the previous two decades. He really was good at divide and fragment politics. By the spring of 1941 it was fairly clear to anyone who cared to think it through that Italy was not in a good position and it was bound to get worse. Both the African and Greek theaters had demonstrated the Italian army was not up to the task, and there were clear signs the blockade and the war economy was damaging Italys business and government finances. The problem was there was no organized group within or outside the Fascist party who could quickly organize anything. It took another two years of military disasters and crashed economy before a opposition within the Fascist party congealed. When the Fascist Grand Council finally convened to formally execute Mussolinis removal it was its first meeting since the 1930s. Whatever Mussolinis many defects he was a skilled manipulator of individuals and groups, the archetypical psychopathic CEO who keeps his corporate staff unable to oppose him and the board of directors unable to remove him.

Had Mussolini been less adroit at power politics he very likely would have been removed in 1942, & possiblly in 1941.
 

thaddeus

Donor
Carl Schwamberger said:
Had Mussolini been less adroit at power politics he very likely would have been removed in 1942, & possiblly in 1941.
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and Germany was an absentee landlord while concentrating on USSR? if they had struck some deal for continued collaboration with Soviets and/or had closer alliance with Japan, Mussolini's leadership might have gotten more attention or been indulged less?
 

Carl Schwamberger

thaddeus said:
and Germany was an absentee landlord while concentrating on USSR? ...
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They were not much invested in Italys imperial ambitions then. Other than Hitlers personal feelings. There was no strong consensus among the German leaders & Italy could have been left to its own devices. The turning point was the final decision in March to clean up the Mediterranean mess. Had the Greek fiasco led to Mussolini losing political strength earlier in December/January Hitler may have confined German intervention to stabilizing the Balkans flank & getting on with the eastern war - no African corps & all that. A Mediterranean armistice between Italy & Britain has certain advantages for Germany in that it reduces British avenues for Churchillian adventures & attendant drain on German resources in that direction. More focus on the main event in the east in 1942.

From Hitlers PoV this could look all Rose colored since the eastern war was supposed to be wrapped up in 1942 anyway. What hope would the English have after that?
 

thaddeus

Donor
Carl Schwamberger said:
They were not much invested in Italys imperial ambitions then. Other than Hitlers personal feelings. There was no strong consensus among the German leaders & Italy could have been left to its own devices. The turning point was the final decision in March to clean up the Mediterranean mess. Had the Greek fiasco led to Mussolini losing political strength earlier in December/January Hitler may have confined German intervention to stabilizing the Balkans flank & getting on with the eastern war - no African corps & all that. A Mediterranean armistice between Italy & Britain has certain advantages for Germany in that it reduces British avenues for Churchillian adventures & attendant drain on German resources in that direction. More focus on the main event in the east in 1942.

From Hitlers PoV this could look all Rose colored since the eastern war was supposed to be wrapped up in 1942 anyway. What hope would the English have after that?
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IMO the German mistake was not allowing (or backing whatever the correct term) an Italian invasion of Yugoslavia as that country was likely to fly apart during wartime. and then Axis could be content with neutral Greece.

have read that Mussolini dreaded asking for German assistance with his misadventures and feared some demands? but as you said they were focused east and none were made (assume in hopes of limiting their involvement.)

can imagine Mussolini would lose influence or power if (as Metaxas hoped) Germany negotiated some end to invasion of Greece unfavorable to Italy? (unlikely ... and Greece would regret later ... )
 

Cryhavoc101

How about the British do not support Greece on the main land (perhaps due to NZ and Aus governments not being happy with the Op) beyond light air forces and some supplies and totally focus on North Africa coupled with an old favorite of mine a larger Operation Judgement using 2 or 3 Carriers with at least several dozen torpedo carrying aircraft resulting in the loss of all the battleships and many of the Cruisers

Malta is fully reinforced as per Cunninghams ideal by April 41 and is able to defend itself and interdict Italian logistic efforts more than OTL

With several extra veteren divisions available (not squandered in Greece and losing much of their equipment in the process) and with a greater than OTL effort on interdicting axis Logistics, Wavell defeats Rommel's Sonnenbaum (Rommel is captured or otherwise hors de combat during the op) - or Rommel is not able to conduct Sonnenbaum and in mid 41 the Desert Army is able to push on out of Cyrenaica and defeat the rest of the weakened Italian forces in North Africa by the end of the year.

With both North Africa and East Africa fallen to the Allies, Germany spoiling the party in Greece and the Balkans and with the RM in ruins I think it would be seen as time for change in Italy.
 

Carl Schwamberger

Cryhavoc101 said:
...

With both North Africa and East Africa fallen to the Allies, Germany spoiling the party in Greece and the Balkans and with the RM in ruins I think it would be seen as time for change in Italy.
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Strictly speaking it was time at the end of 1940, as the Greek fiasco unfolded and the positions in Africa were starting to look weak. Under the OTL circumstances its unrealistic to expect Mussolinis dismissal then, or later in 1941, but if the Germans simple clean up the Balkans & don't support the Italians in any other way, then maybe that would lead to something?

Lets assume the Germans 1. just capture Belgrade and negotiate a return of a pro German government in Yugoslavia. 2. Force Italy to a armistices with Greece & then a peace treaty. That leaves Mussolini with nothing to show for his Balkans war but a bad casualty list, and a collapsing position in Africa. If he has a mental breakdown as in 1943 & loses his grip replacement is possible.
 

Cryhavoc101

Carl Schwamberger said:
Strictly speaking it was time at the end of 1940, as the Greek fiasco unfolded and the positions in Africa were starting to look weak. Under the OTL circumstances its unrealistic to expect Mussolinis dismissal then, or later in 1941, but if the Germans simple clean up the Balkans & don't support the Italians in any other way, then maybe that would lead to something?

Lets assume the Germans 1. just capture Belgrade and negotiate a return of a pro German government in Yugoslavia. 2. Force Italy to a armistices with Greece & then a peace treaty. That leaves Mussolini with nothing to show for his Balkans war but a bad casualty list, and a collapsing position in Africa. If he has a mental breakdown as in 1943 & loses his grip replacement is possible.
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I like it - perhaps some one convinces Adolph to not 'weaken' the German army just before Barbarossa - I know strictly speaking it did not do that but it might be used as an excuse especially if the British and Commonwealth forces do not directly 'come to Greeces aid' - Goering's boys are wasted somewhere other than Crete

Another idea is that in mid/late 41 Mussolini shoots what's left of his bolt in an ill conceived and rushed all Italian Op Herkules which fails hard and costs the Italian armed forces all of its paratroopers (about 6 battalions worth in total including Libyan troops) the majority of the San Marco Regiments 2 Marine Battalions and much of the combat elements of the Friuli and Livorno divisions that attempted to land in Marsaxlokk bay and many transport aircraft. Follow on units were relatively untouched as the Italian commander in charge of the Amphibious Landing, Admiral Vittorio Tur (who was highly skeptical of the whole enterprise) called off the operation as it became clear that the Airborne aspect had failed and that the Amphibious landings being seriously delayed and landing at dawn had incurred very heavy losses among the leading battalions and not achieved any of their initial goals.
 

thaddeus

Donor
the writing was on the wall that Italy was going to be a drain, and there was even opinion to effect that Italy was militarily lacking during Spanish Civil War.

what happens with any German deal with Vichy regime or continued collaboration with Soviets? in some sense the invasion of USSR was option pursued because Hitler did not want to decide territorial issues between Italy-France-(lesser extent) Spain?

if as suggested Germany settles issues in the Balkans and leaves Italians to their fate in North Africa? AND strikes some agreement with France, insult to injury.

(even read scenario for Germany wresting Italian fleet away from them? at least more likely than capturing French fleet)
 

Carl Schwamberger

thaddeus said:
the writing was on the wall that Italy was going to be a drain, and there was even opinion to effect that Italy was militarily lacking during Spanish Civil War.

what happens with any German deal with Vichy regime or continued collaboration with Soviets? in some sense the invasion of USSR was option pursued because Hitler did not want to decide territorial issues between Italy-France-(lesser extent) Spain?

if as suggested Germany settles issues in the Balkans and leaves Italians to their fate in North Africa? AND strikes some agreement with France, insult to injury.
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Hitler's personal priority was to conquor the Slavs. Letting the Brits fight Italy for a while could look like leading to a grand peace settlement in 1942 after the USSR was defeated.
 
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