WI: Mussolini Dies In 1939

Well Corsica and Tunisia are out of the question none in the Free French goverment wil give them away; a free hand in Yugoslavia and a full recognition of Albania annexation instead are a more plausible gain(plus what was offered in OTL).

Italy entering the war in the last stage will aim towards 'liberate' Austria so to make it again a satellite and block any Soviet attempt to enter that nation.
Yugoslavia can go as OTL if there is a pro-British coup in Belgrade and the man in charge in Berlin decide that is better be safe than sorry, in that case Italy will probably partecipate or be awarded something after the fait.

While no italian partecipation mean that Germany will not be dragged in various adventure like North Africa and Greece, and there will be a point of contact with the world market.
Italy neutrality is a big boone for the Entente or better the British.
Not only they will not need to fight in Africa, saving men and material but they will not need to depleting their reserve in Asia making the job of the Japanese much more difficult...and i not even take in consideration the absence of the mediterrean front and all the british ships now free.

Now the mediterranean is open and the ships don't need to go for the cape route, hell nations can even use the italian merchant marine...overall this mean that the UK is up for a big saving in term of tonnage, time and money.

Remember when i say that now Germany is not distracted by other front, this also mean that Stalin will have less motive to not believe Hitler will remain on his side of the border and not attack.

Not sure why Corsica and Tunisia are out of consideration. UK and US interests would be involved - unless Yugoslavia is also in hand it means Germany can turn Austria and Bavaria into a redoubt, meaning they might both become Communist satellites. If Italy enters the war in mid-1944 then central Europe might find itself less iron curtain and more NATO post-war
 
Not sure why Corsica and Tunisia are out of consideration. UK and US interests would be involved - unless Yugoslavia is also in hand it means Germany can turn Austria and Bavaria into a redoubt, meaning they might both become Communist satellites. If Italy enters the war in mid-1944 then central Europe might find itself less iron curtain and more NATO post-war

Because the French will never give them away, Corsica is part of metropolitan France and Tunisia is a too important colony. De Gaulle will never realistically cede them to another nation
 
What happens to the Italian territories in China?

http://dutcheastindies.webs.com/shanghai.html

In 1937 Japanese bombers attacked the Italian cruiser Montecuccoli ; so relations must already be tense.

In Sept 1939 a month after Mussolini's deatgh the CL Bartolomeo Corleoni and gunboats Lepanto and Carlotto were at Shanghai to protect Italian interests.

With its sizable navy not involved in the European war does Italy reinforce its position in China? I imagine the IJN would be surprised if a pair of Cavour or Doria class battleships and a few CAs arrived at Italy's China territory late 1939 , with a sizable force permanently stationed in Eritrea.

An Italian naval presence in China allows for a neutral *Italy in this scenario to be dragged in on the Allied side in 1941. As naval combat units in the Pacific... they're floating coffins. One, they have short legs - they had range issues even in the Mediterranean. Two, they were theory victims. Speed as armor is a great idea - if nothing breaks down. If something does, Matapan. Taking those lightly armored Italian cruisers up against the Takeo-class and the IJN's excellent optics and drill... short fight. Those same Takeo's come sliding in at night with Long Lances - those Caviors and Doria are out on open water with barely the fuel to try and dodge.
 
Tunisia is certainly possible and more. Corsica, Nice and Savoy aren't. De Gaulle was often sidelined or ignored by the Anglo-Americans and FDR had him in low regard. the Grench government in 1940 were willing to offer p a lot and FDR guaranteed that the Americans would see to it that they made good on their promises for neutrality.
 
does Italy reinforce its position in China? I imagine the IJN would be surprised if a pair of Cavour or Doria class battleships and a few CAs arrived at Italy's China territory late 1939
Just how many battleship capable dockyards does Italy have in china ? (er 0 maybe ?)
I cant see more than 1 CA sent and that will have orders to run if challenged seriously.
 
As naval combat units in the Pacific... they're floating coffins. One, they have short legs - they had range issues even in the Mediterranean. Two, they were theory victims. Speed as armor is a great idea - if nothing breaks down. If something does, Matapan. Taking those lightly armored Italian cruisers up against the Takeo-class and the IJN's excellent optics and drill... short fight. Those same Takeo's come sliding in at night with Long Lances - those Caviors and Doria are out on open water with barely the fuel to try and dodge.
The Italian battleships may not be competitive with the IJN, but I'd put their Zara class up against the IJN's CAs and not expect an Italian bloodbath.

Where Italy would have greatest impact in a Pacific War is with their fleet of almost 130 fleet submarines, many with air conditioning, heavy deck armament and some with good endurance.
 

Deleted member 1487

The Italian battleships may not be competitive with the IJN, but I'd put their Zara class up against the IJN's CAs and not expect an Italian bloodbath.

Where Italy would have greatest impact in a Pacific War is with their fleet of almost 130 fleet submarines, many with air conditioning, heavy deck armament and some with good endurance.
The Italian subs though were designed for Mediterranean conditions, not Pacific, when they were used in the Atlantic they had issues, same as when the Uboats were used in the Mediterranean.
 
Second, in the absence of the various campaigns listed above, there would be no action for the Wehrmacht from June 1940 onward. So by June 1941, it may be obvious even to Stalin that Germany is coming east. So BARBAROSSA may not start with a sucker punch, and could be substantially less successful.

Self delusion is a powerful force, if Stalin isn't convinced then you could have a more successful attack on Russia with Hitler having divisions used in the Balkans at 100% readiness and the forces used in North Africa on the Russian front as well then we are talking about something that could tip the balance at least for one or even two of the major cities in the German army path in 1941.

It could change the whole complexion of the war in the East if the USSR is caught with its pants down, several more divisions and others at better readiness and paratroopers still being an unplayed card in Germany's hand.

If the USSR is ready then I think the extra German forces and the Soviet rediness somewhat cancel each other other. But, the real threat to the war from the WAllied prospective at that point is relatively green American and British divisions landing in say 1943 in Northern France without the experience of North Africa and Italy.
 
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Deleted member 1487

Self delusion is a powerful force, if Stalin isn't convinced then you could have a more successful attack on Russia with Hitler having divisions used in the Balkans at 100% readiness and the forces used in North Africa on the Russian front as well then we are talking about something that could tip the balance at least for one or even two of the major cities in the German army path in 1941.

It could change the whole complexion of the war in the East if the USSR is caught with its pants down, several more divisions and others at better readiness and paratroopers still being an unplayed card in Germany's hand.

If the USSR is ready then I think the extra German forces and the Soviet rediness somewhat cancel each other other. But, the real threat to the war from the WAllied prospective at that point is relatively green American and British divisions landing in say 1943 in Northern France without the experience of North Africa and Italy.

If Rommel's corps is with AG-North along with the paras, plus Fliegerkorps X. with AG-South you'd likely have the Soviet 11th and 8th armies trapped and wipe out west of the Dvina in June, while in the South the Black Seas Fleet is probably pretty heavily hammered and Sevatopol falls in 1941 instead of 1942. That creates all sorts of issues from then on for the Soviets and probably frees up the X. Fliegerkorps for use in Norway to interdict British supply efforts via Murmansk come 1942.

A 1943 invasion of France could well end up getting repelled and Allied airborne forces wiped out. Plus Romania is out of range and without the need to defend Italy that's about 15% of the German FLAK army that is freed up to use in either Germany or France, which is a pretty huge amount. And of course about 150 German fighters defending Ploesti. And without the brutal losses in the Mediterranean from 1941-43 those fighters and other aircraft can be used to defend Western Europe and fight in the East respectively. The other very big issues is that there is limited carrying capacity for aircraft in Britain, which AFAIK was reach in 1944, so the 15th air force would without a staging area without North Africa/the Mediterranean. The 9th air force would lack the experience of North Africa. A major issue for the Germans was the dispersal of very limited forces, as they fought in the West, Mediterranean, and East, while ITTL it will be the East and West only, with the West being a much easier place to defend due to the logistics and infrastructure being far better there than in the Mediterranean, plus no shipping losses in the process. The Luftwaffe then becomes a lot tougher to beat over their home turf. In the end attrition would take its toll, but the Luftwaffe could then muster the numbers to contest the air more routinely without being killed at the far end of their supply lines in unfavorable conditions. Concentration helps them more than the USAAF/RAF, who would have a harder time bringing their extra numbers to bear. 1942-43 would be a lot bloodier for the Wallies in the air and probably on the beaches. Stalingrad would have a different context without the Tunisian diversion too.
 

Driftless

Donor
I highly doubt the British would allow trade with Germany via Italy; part of the reason Mussolini was willing to join the war was because the Allies were getting pretty pushy about allowing non-approved trade coming into the Mediterranean, because they controlled access to that sea.
(snip)

From the Italian perspective this is the best solution and in the end is less bad for Europe all around, even if bloodier in some ways for the Wallies and Soviets.

What about German protest of Italian arms trade with Britain?

http://histaviation.com/Reggiane_Re_2000.html



With Mussolini gone, does Britain get its 300 Italian fighters?

How about purchase or barter for other militarily useful materials: British coal (as mentioned earlier), oil, scrap iron, foodstuffs, aircraft engines?, etc; Italian marine engines (as mentioned earlier), even ready to run MAS boats, torpedos(I believe the Italians had better performing torpedos than some), Beretta M38's?, Breda M35's?, etc.
 
How about purchase or barter for other militarily useful materials:
How about some Italian tanks for the British army in Malaya?

The basic Italian tanks in 1940-41 are the M.11/39 and M.40/13. The first one has a 37mm gun in the hull and a turreted machine gun; the latter has a 47mm gun in a turret. Weight is 11 and 14 tons respectively with 30 and 40mm max armor respectively.

I'd put these up against the Japanese tanks of the time.
 

Driftless

Donor
How about some Italian tanks for the British army in Malaya?

The basic Italian tanks in 1940-41 are the M.11/39 and M.40/13. The first one has a 37mm gun in the hull and a turreted machine gun; the latter has a 47mm gun in a turret. Weight is 11 and 14 tons respectively with 30 and 40mm max armor respectively.

I'd put these up against the Japanese tanks of the time.

Against the Japanese, those Italian tanks might have been very useful.

Some of the Italian wheeled vehicles would have also been useful: SPA TL.37 artillery tractor & the subsequent truck version SPA AS.37 & the later Camionetta Sahariana. Each a very capable 4x4 with large diameter wheels. They were apparently well liked and well used.

a video of the TL.37 in motion, including the 4 wheel steering (tight turning radius)
 
Italian Volunteers for the Eastern Front

Does any one see the Italian Government agreeing to send volunteers to fight on the Eastern Front. I am thinking about the Spanish Blue Division.

This would allow the Italian government to hedge their bets. They are supporting the Germans and not fighting the Western Allies. Also, it is a way to keep the moe hard core fascist members out of the country and busy.

Stubear1012
 

Deleted member 1487

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_participation_in_the_Eastern_Front

You have to wonder what some poor conscript from the Italian south must have thought during his last winter in Stalingrad.

Since the beginning of the Italian campaign in Russia, about 30,000 Italians had been killed and another 54,000 would die in captivity. By the end of February 1943, the rout of the ARMIR was complete. Mussolini then withdrew what remained of his 8th Army from Russian soil. The Italian forces in Russia had been reduced to less than 150,000 men, and 34,000 of these were wounded. The disaster in Russia was a fierce blow to the power and popularity of the dictator. Both sank as the gloomy news soon reached the public in Italy. Survivors blamed the Fascist political elite and the army generals. The survivors said they both had acted irresponsibly by sending a poorly prepared, ill-equipped, and inadequately armed military force to the Russian Front. According to veterans, weapons in Italian service were awful: hand grenades rarely went off and rifles and machine guns had to be kept for a long time on a fire to work properly in extreme climatic conditions, thus often not capable of firing in the midst of battle. The German commanders were accused of sacrificing the Italian divisions, whose withdrawal was supposedly delayed after the Soviet breakthrough, in order to rescue their own troops.[6]
Well, we know what the survivors thought.
 
Mussolini's death might mean a much better Italian army as well, along with credit as the first nation to fly a jet in 1940. This might lead to collaboration with Frank Whittle somehow, but more interestingly it might mean Italian jets develop faster as they will have a lot more resources to spend on aircraft development. A true semi-automatic service rifle (Scotti Model X derivative? Automatic Weapon 1939?) using a 7.35mm round was prototyped in 1939, the Beretta 38 SMG was also very popular even with German special forces troops. Italian forces would also provide a lot closer refuge for German scientists and refugees after the war to build an industrial base. Enrico Fermi might not decide to work with the Allies, or if he does it is in exchange for something else. Ultimately Italy is better off all around by staying out of the war and probably remains Fascist until the end of the Cold War.
 
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