What if Bosnia had the same % of muslims as Albania? Would Austria or Serbia still annex them? Would they go independent after the ottoman collapse?
WI Muslim mayority Bosnia during the 19 century?
- Thread starter EnvarKadri
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Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
They will still annex it. Either for strategic reasons or for other reasons.
But how does the demographics change the internal politics? Would the Habsburgs become the godfathers of Bosniak nationalism? Would Serbia even try ethnic cleasing ("expelling the turks") in such setting and what would be the concequences?
Deleted member 114175
Bosnian nationalism is largely anti-Ottoman (by trying to create an autonomous South Slavic nation, regardless of if it's Muslim), and it also provides a counter to Serbia, so the Habsburgs would still support it.
Serbia probably wouldn't try to "expel the [non-Turkish] Turks" in Bosnia if there was no Serbian minority to try and annex land with. However, Muslims in Serbia proper and Bulgaria proper would probably still be oppressed or forced out during a brutal war between Russia and the Ottoman Empire. A Bosnian nation seems like it may still be pluralistic, or, it may expel its Christians if it breaks off of the Habsburg empire.
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
Depends on the majority. If you say like Albania which I assume 60-70%, it is hard but not impossible. But the chance is even less than OTL. The chance of "Muslim Serb" identity would be promoted. The same will count for "Muslim Croat" if Croatia rules the land. The Habsburgs have even stronger control over the land. The chance of a Bosniak Identity would bre even more promoted as OTL.
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
Muslims of Serbia were largely ousted by 1830 by the Serb Authorities except the Ottoman Garrison in Belgrade, Smederevo etc.
Bosnian Nationalism isn't largely anti-Ottoman. If you have examples, I'd like to hear it. As far as I know, it was anti-Serb.
Deleted member 114175
True, "anti-Ottoman" was the wrong word. I should have said "non-Ottoman".
My point is that it only developed into Bosnian nationalism during the Habsburg period by which point the Bosnian nation was fully regarded as South Slavic rather than simply an Ottoman concept of one Muslim legal community. For example in Ethnic boxes: the unintended consequences of Habsburg bureaucratic classification, Stergar and Scheer argue that the ethnic groups of much of southeastern Europe weren't finalized until well into the 19th century, with perhaps the most important factor being the Habsburg attempts to categorize ethnic identities in its territory. Although differences existed, by making available ethnolinguistic identification categories it led to the nationalization and solidification of identities that may not have arisen in alternate timelines.
If there is no Habsburg annexation of Bosnia then Bosniaks are probably considered "Muslim Illyrians" or "Muslim Croats".
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