Dmitri Travin has written, at rosbalt.ru, an interesting imagining of what Muscovy would have become had it not managed to conquer Novgorod, and after Muscovy eastern Europe.
Thoughts?
"Let's return to our example. Remain Muscovy a small state, lost in the forests, no imperial syndrome of the Muscovites would not have arisen - just like the merchants-Novgorodians. Tatars would have endured the long times of greatness of the Golden Horde, but, unable to revive them, would also forget about the empire. Although, perhaps, part of the huge Polish state would be the lands of present-day Ukraine and Belarus. Accordingly, the imperial syndrome could be formed there, and not with us.
Now about Orthodoxy. Baptized us Vladimir the Holy long before the XV century - no doubt. But there are historical subtleties. On the western borders of Kievan Rus in the absence of a powerful Moscow power, the influence of Catholicism would be stronger. And it is not known, it would be possible in this case to survive the Orthodox faith in the Ukrainian and Belarusian lands. And Novgorod, having fought back in the 15th century from Ivan III, could have been influenced by Sweden in the second half of the 17th century - in the era of its unique dominance in the Baltic. And Lutheranism would spread not only among the "Finnish Finns", but also among the Ingermanlands, also grabbing the westernized Slavic merchants, who would like to be accepted for their own in the rich trading Europe. And then the milons would run around Novgorod in T-shirts with portraits of the Swedish reformer Olaf Petri, shouting at the top of his voice "Lutheranism or death!"
The Volga would remain predominantly Islamic. The North Caucasus is, too. And about Siberia, I do not even want to guess. Without Cossack conquistadors, it would be completely different. Which, by the way, would remove the problem of the resource curse from Muscovy, since it would not have any resources in it. And Novgorod would be struck by a fur curse, because the proteins would replace oil.
It is clear that the Russians would not have any anti-Semitism because of the total absence of Semites. And in the Ukrainian and Belarusian territories, in Lithuania and in Poland, this problem would clearly remain. And now the Grand Duke of Moscow would wholeheartedly support Brussels's calls for tolerance, criticizing Polish-Lithuanian xenophobes and asking for their civilization a soft loan in European currency to stabilize lean public finances.
Novgorod would have entered the European Union. Not because it was steep (it was only a trading outskirts of the Baltic in the Middle Ages), but because it would stand out for the better against the background of other Russian lands. Something like Slovenia stands out today against the background of other South Slavic states, as it has more contact with the West and has adopted its economic culture."
Now about Orthodoxy. Baptized us Vladimir the Holy long before the XV century - no doubt. But there are historical subtleties. On the western borders of Kievan Rus in the absence of a powerful Moscow power, the influence of Catholicism would be stronger. And it is not known, it would be possible in this case to survive the Orthodox faith in the Ukrainian and Belarusian lands. And Novgorod, having fought back in the 15th century from Ivan III, could have been influenced by Sweden in the second half of the 17th century - in the era of its unique dominance in the Baltic. And Lutheranism would spread not only among the "Finnish Finns", but also among the Ingermanlands, also grabbing the westernized Slavic merchants, who would like to be accepted for their own in the rich trading Europe. And then the milons would run around Novgorod in T-shirts with portraits of the Swedish reformer Olaf Petri, shouting at the top of his voice "Lutheranism or death!"
The Volga would remain predominantly Islamic. The North Caucasus is, too. And about Siberia, I do not even want to guess. Without Cossack conquistadors, it would be completely different. Which, by the way, would remove the problem of the resource curse from Muscovy, since it would not have any resources in it. And Novgorod would be struck by a fur curse, because the proteins would replace oil.
It is clear that the Russians would not have any anti-Semitism because of the total absence of Semites. And in the Ukrainian and Belarusian territories, in Lithuania and in Poland, this problem would clearly remain. And now the Grand Duke of Moscow would wholeheartedly support Brussels's calls for tolerance, criticizing Polish-Lithuanian xenophobes and asking for their civilization a soft loan in European currency to stabilize lean public finances.
Novgorod would have entered the European Union. Not because it was steep (it was only a trading outskirts of the Baltic in the Middle Ages), but because it would stand out for the better against the background of other Russian lands. Something like Slovenia stands out today against the background of other South Slavic states, as it has more contact with the West and has adopted its economic culture."
Thoughts?