WI: Muscovites defeat the Lithuanians at the Battle Of Orsha (1514)

The Battle Of Orsha was perhaps the most decisive moment of the Muscovite-Lithuanian Wars. The muscovites were confident that they could reunite the whole of the former Kievan Rus' lands, while the Lithuanians, alongside their polish allies, were a target of such expansionism. However, after being defeated at the Orsha, the muscovites would find themselves unable to make any decisive offensive manoeuvres against the lithuanians, and would eventually give up on trying to conquer the land directly. The lithuanian victory at the battle had a significant role in the creation of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, considering the expansion of religious tolerance (the orthodox nobility of Belarus had revolted and joined the muscovites in the battle).
But what if the lithuanians had been defeated and routed in the battle? Perhaps communications between muscovite generals Ivan Chelyadnin and Prince Bulgakov-Golitsa are better, or the lithuanians commit a mistake?
Would the muscovites be able to conquer Belarus? Or even Lithuania as a whole?
How would this affect the development of the polish-lithuanian dynastic union?
Would Muscovy gain an earlier reputation as a rising power after their victory in the battle?
What happens to the muscovite-allied Crimean Khanate?
 
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You're thinking too small-scale. Without the victory at Orsha, the anti-Jagiellon coalition led by Maximilian I of Austria and the Muscovites would not sue for peace nor collapse.

A defeat in Orsha would be the end of the Jagiellons, one more reason for why winning there was so important.
 
Does this butterfly away the formation of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth?
You can't just say "yes, it will be butterflied away" or "no, it won't be butterflied away" if the POD is close to the event. There's lots of factors involved.

But anyway, Lithuania was now too deep in the union to simply attempt to break away like it tried in the 1440s (not that they could, considering that they just got wrecked in Orsha), so, in my opinion, this question is redundant. If Lithuania survives, they will be pretty much forced to unite with Poland to even keep existing, so a PLC is inevitable (if Lithuania survives)

After all, everyone but the craziest pro-independence wackos knew that Poland is better for them and Lithuania than Russia.
 
You can't just say "yes, it will be butterflied away" or "no, it won't be butterflied away" if the POD is close to the event. There's lots of factors involved.

But anyway, Lithuania was now too deep in the union to simply attempt to break away like it tried in the 1440s (not that they could, considering that they just got wrecked in Orsha), so, in my opinion, this question is redundant. If Lithuania survives, they will be pretty much forced to unite with Poland to even keep existing, so a PLC is inevitable (if Lithuania survives)

After all, everyone but the craziest pro-independence wackos knew that Poland is better for them and Lithuania than Russia.
So, we probably see a smaller PLC, with its eastern territories carved off by Muscovy?
 

raharris1973

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for what it's worth, here's the response I received when I tried GauchoBadger's OP on SHWI

On Monday, January 30, 2017 at 10:16:02 PM UTC-5, Rob wrote:
> ripped from another forum by another author for Alex Milman's attention:
>
> "The Battle Of Orsha was perhaps the most decisive moment of the Muscovite-Lithuanian Wars. The muscovites were confident that they could reunite the whole of the former Kievan Rus' lands,

Including Central/Western Ukraine? AFAIK, there were no serious attempts
to advance in this direction until mid-XVII.

> while the Lithuanians, alongside their polish allies, were a target of such expansionism. However, after being defeated at the Orsha, the muscovites would find themselves unable to make any decisive offensive manoeuvres against the lithuanians, and would eventually give up on trying to conquer the land directly.

Temporarily. Expansionism of the next reign was directed Eastward but after
this was accomplished Ivan IV turned Westward.

>The lithuanian victory at the battle had a significant role in the creation of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, considering the expansion of religious tolerance (the orthodox nobility of Belarus had revolted and joined the muscovites in the battle).

Defeat at Orsha stopped the Muscovite aggression AT THAT TIME. However, it was
renewed during the reign of Ivan IV (as a part of the Livonian War) with the
resulting Union of Lublin (1569, more than 50 years after the Battle at Orsha)
and creation of the Commonwealth.


>
> But what if the lithuanians had been defeated and routed in the battle? Perhaps communications between muscovite generals Ivan Chelyadnin and Prince Bulgakov-Golitsa are better, or the lithuanians commit a mistake?

In 1514 the Muscovite warfare was already behind one of its Western neighbors.
It totally lacked a heavy cavalry and its infantry was WELL behind the Western
standards. Ostrogski had modern infantry (mercenaries from Bohemia), heavy
cavalry and twice as much of a field artillery, most probably with thebetter
crews.

Most of the Muscovite army can be safely described as "irregulars" of a rather
dubious quality.

The numbers are varying in a wide range but IMO something under 20K is more realistic which makes armies approximately equal numerically.

Of course, the Muscovites could win, at least in theory.


>
> Would the muscovites be able to conquer Belarus? Or even Lithuania as a whole?
>

I doubt it. Ivan IV tried (at least with Belorussia) and he had a reasonably
"modern" army with a regular infantry (which could not maneuver or attack but
at least had firearms). The fundamental weakness remained: Muscovite state still
had a predominantly feudal army with generally low quality of these "feudals"
as the individual fighters. It could loot the area (the main style of the
Russian warfare all the way to the early stages of the Great Northern War) and
it could even take the fortified cities providing no help is coming and
fortifications are not modern.

> How would this affect the development of the polish -lithuanian dynastic union?


Well, if they managed to conquer the whole Lithuania, how could there be an
union? :)

In OTL, initially successful Russian aggression against Lithuania resulted in
creation of the commonwealth so probably the same would happen in the early
XVI in the case of Muscovite success in Belorussia.

>
> Would Muscovy gain an earlier reputation as a rising power after their victory in the battle?

They already had such a reputation but reputation alone is not enough. :)

Muscovite state of Vasili III was too backward to score major success against
a reasonably strong Western neighbor like Poland so, in the best case scenario,
they would be able to get away with the chunk of Belorussia.




>
> What happens to the muscovite-allied Crimean Khanate?"

Was it allied to them? AFAIK, at Orsha there were Tatar contingents on the
Lithuanian side but they could be the Lithuanian Tatars.

Anyway, nothing would happen to the Khanate because none of the sides could
do anything serious about it all the way to (at least) early XVIII.
 
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