WI: Murad I never has his dream

Found a fascinating excerpt from a Greek chronicle of Ottoman history:

They say that Murad [Murad I, r. 1362-1389] had a dream one night, which he then related and all the Turks believed it to be prophetic: he saw a man dressed in white garments, like a prophet, who took the ring that his son was wearing on his middle finger and transferred it to the second finger; then he took it off and put it on the third; after he had passed the ring to all five fingers, he threw it away and he vanished.

Murad summoned his hodzas and diviners and asked them to interpret this dream for him. They said: "Undoubtedly, the meaning is that only five kings from your line will reign; then another dynasty will take over the kingdom."

Because of this dream, it was decided that no members of the old, noble families, i.e. the Turahanoglu, the Mihaloglu, or the Evrenos, would be appointed beglerbegs or viziers...

All these families had hoped to reign, but because of Murad's dream, they were deprived of their former considerable authority.​

The Turahanoglu were descendants of Turahan, a Turkish allied chief of Osman I. The Mihaloglu were the descendants of Michael/Mihal, originally an Orthodox Greek Byzantine officer who became a Muslim commander under Osman I. The Evrenos were the scions of Evrenos Ghazi, another friend of Osman I and who was probably a Catholic mercenary in Byzantine service before defecting to the Ottomans. The combined power of these three noble houses may well have been stronger than the House of Osman itself in the early fourteenth century.

Indeed, one Venetian who lived in Constantinople in around 1500 says this about how the Ottoman empire was founded:

Now in the time of Michael Paleologo [Michael VIII, 1261–1282], the first of his house to reign as Emperor in Constantinople, there were four lords of the Turks in the vicinity. One was called Michauli, the second was Turachan, the third Evrenes, the fourth Ottomano. Each was no more than a petty chieftain.

They knew that the Emperor Michael had left their frontier. But as they were, they were too divided and scattered to attack their enemies as was their wont; rather they thought of defending themselves. They saw that the power of the Christians was too great for them to resist it singly, and they soon decided to look not to their own self-interest but to their common good; and they did something generous and memorable.....

One day they assembled together to elect one lord from among them. Each of these present had his own say but all were agreed that none could match Ottomano in authority, courage and strength of character. They found it hard to decide, for by common consent they would rather have had a brother than a sovereign lord. But they elected Ottomano as such; and he became the first Emperor of the Turks.
This further strengthens the notion that the early Ottomans (about which we know almost nothing for sure) was a sort of confederacy with the Osmanoglus as primus inter pares.

What if Murad had failed to subdue the Ottoman's old aristocracy?
 
Found a fascinating excerpt from a Greek chronicle of Ottoman history:

They say that Murad [Murad I, r. 1362-1389] had a dream one night, which he then related and all the Turks believed it to be prophetic: he saw a man dressed in white garments, like a prophet, who took the ring that his son was wearing on his middle finger and transferred it to the second finger; then he took it off and put it on the third; after he had passed the ring to all five fingers, he threw it away and he vanished.

Murad summoned his hodzas and diviners and asked them to interpret this dream for him. They said: "Undoubtedly, the meaning is that only five kings from your line will reign; then another dynasty will take over the kingdom."

Because of this dream, it was decided that no members of the old, noble families, i.e. the Turahanoglu, the Mihaloglu, or the Evrenos, would be appointed beglerbegs or viziers...

All these families had hoped to reign, but because of Murad's dream, they were deprived of their former considerable authority.​

The Turahanoglu were descendants of Turahan, a Turkish allied chief of Osman I. The Mihaloglu were the descendants of Michael/Mihal, originally an Orthodox Greek Byzantine officer who became a Muslim commander under Osman I. The Evrenos were the scions of Evrenos Ghazi, another friend of Osman I and who was probably a Catholic mercenary in Byzantine service before defecting to the Ottomans. The combined power of these three noble houses may well have been stronger than the House of Osman itself in the early fourteenth century.

Indeed, one Venetian who lived in Constantinople in around 1500 says this about how the Ottoman empire was founded:

Now in the time of Michael Paleologo [Michael VIII, 1261–1282], the first of his house to reign as Emperor in Constantinople, there were four lords of the Turks in the vicinity. One was called Michauli, the second was Turachan, the third Evrenes, the fourth Ottomano. Each was no more than a petty chieftain.

They knew that the Emperor Michael had left their frontier. But as they were, they were too divided and scattered to attack their enemies as was their wont; rather they thought of defending themselves. They saw that the power of the Christians was too great for them to resist it singly, and they soon decided to look not to their own self-interest but to their common good; and they did something generous and memorable.....

One day they assembled together to elect one lord from among them. Each of these present had his own say but all were agreed that none could match Ottomano in authority, courage and strength of character. They found it hard to decide, for by common consent they would rather have had a brother than a sovereign lord. But they elected Ottomano as such; and he became the first Emperor of the Turks.
This further strengthens the notion that the early Ottomans (about which we know almost nothing for sure) was a sort of confederacy with the Osmanoglus as primus inter pares.

What if Murad had failed to subdue the Ottoman's old aristocracy?

Nothing much will change actually up until the Battle of Ankara and that if that still were to happen. Maybe then they might try to grab power by supporting one prince vs the other and ditch him when he is no longer necessary.
 
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