WI Munich Conference is a failure

WI the Munich conference fails, and Hitler invades Czechoslovakia. I think it is pretty well established as a Nazi defeat, but with the preeminent power of Central Europe defeated, would Stalin begin to make moves into the European Continent.
 
I would assume Stalin would want to help the Czechs but lacking any border with them he ends up getting cockblocked by Poland and Romania. Limiting him to moral and economic support.

As for whether he decides this is a good chance to start retaking territory, i doubt it. The Soviet Union needs more time to build the worker's paradise.
 

Cook

Banned
I would assume Stalin would want to help the Czechs but lacking any border with them he ends up getting cockblocked by Poland and Romania. Limiting him to moral and economic support.
Stalin would have taken no action unless France acted first – the Soviet defence agreement with Czechoslovakia specifically that. As it was the Soviets informed the Poles that if they took part in the invasion of Czechoslovakia (which they were planning to do so in conjunction with Germany), the Soviets would consider this a violation of the Polish- Soviet Non-aggression Pact. At the same time they began mobilisation in the military areas closest to the Polish border. Even with the non-aggression pact the Soviet press regularly referred to the Poles as ‘Hitler’s attack dogs’ and conducted military exercised that anticipated war against a German – Polish alliance, so an attack on Eastern Poland would be likely if war broke out.
 
Stalin would have taken no action unless France acted first – the Soviet defence agreement with Czechoslovakia specifically that. As it was the Soviets informed the Poles that if they took part in the invasion of Czechoslovakia (which they were planning to do so in conjunction with Germany), the Soviets would consider this a violation of the Polish- Soviet Non-aggression Pact. At the same time they began mobilisation in the military areas closest to the Polish border. Even with the non-aggression pact the Soviet press regularly referred to the Poles as ‘Hitler’s attack dogs’ and conducted military exercised that anticipated war against a German – Polish alliance, so an attack on Eastern Poland would be likely if war broke out.
Okay, didnt know that. Very interesting, thanks. :)
 

MSZ

Banned
Poles planning to attack to Czechs and the thing about poles were silent allies of Hitler were products of, well - propaganda and Stalin's paranoia. Wouldn't have happened. If the Czechs fight and the French mobilize, the Poles would mobilize as well and act against the Germans. Which would lead to a two front war for Germany which would be lost.

Stalin would have limited options in aiding the Czechs due to the lack of a common border. If he was to try to 'make' a common border, the most likely result is Poland redirecting forces east and fighting. And it would be hard for me to imagine that Germany would not try to use the opportunity to save itself from the fire by begging for a ceasefire and joining the fight with the Soviets along with the western allies.

Czechoslovakia is likely to be able to hold the line in the Sudeten mountains for some time, but would not be able to do so indefinetly. Relief in the form of a second front would have to come, and soon - technically the Czechs and Slovaks would be fighting on not quite a common ground, the Sudeten Germans being NSDAP followers, many of whom were members of selbstschutz. Sabotage and obstruction in fighting as well as war production could potentially cause as much damage to the war effort as the Wehrmacht.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
If Munich is a failure (for Germany) Czechoslovakia is save - for the time being.

AH knew that Germany was NOT war ready in 1938

Do you have a source for that?

To my knowledge Hitler wanted a war in 1938 and Munich to fail, but I would have to look for a source to prove that, too;)
 
Stalin would have taken no action unless France acted first – the Soviet defence agreement with Czechoslovakia specifically that. As it was the Soviets informed the Poles that if they took part in the invasion of Czechoslovakia (which they were planning to do so in conjunction with Germany), the Soviets would consider this a violation of the Polish- Soviet Non-aggression Pact. At the same time they began mobilisation in the military areas closest to the Polish border. Even with the non-aggression pact the Soviet press regularly referred to the Poles as ‘Hitler’s attack dogs’ and conducted military exercised that anticipated war against a German – Polish alliance, so an attack on Eastern Poland would be likely if war broke out.
There is a difference between attacking Poland while it acts as a German ally and attacking without a provocation. Of course, Stalin would have loved to take revenge against Poland, but he doesn't strike me as the type who would throw a great opportunity to defeat Germany while the Allies are for once on his side for an opportunistic invasion of Poland.
As MSZ said, it seems indeed likely that if the Allies actually fight, so would Poland. But would the Allies also be able to persuade Poland or Romania to let Soviet troops through? Or at least planes and supples?
 
There is a difference between attacking Poland while it acts as a German ally and attacking without a provocation. Of course, Stalin would have loved to take revenge against Poland, but he doesn't strike me as the type who would throw a great opportunity to defeat Germany while the Allies are for once on his side for an opportunistic invasion of Poland.
As MSZ said, it seems indeed likely that if the Allies actually fight, so would Poland. But would the Allies also be able to persuade Poland or Romania to let Soviet troops through? Or at least planes and supples?

IIRC Romania actually reached such an agreement with the USSR.

But, if war does break out, I don't think Stalin would be very keen on actually sending the Red Army to Czechoslovakia, except perhaps a token force. If the capitalists are finishing their war by themselves, why waste resources to help them?

Or did Stalin for some reason hope that Czechoslovakia might go communist as a result of the Red Army's presence there (which seems very unlikely)?
 
IIRC Romania actually reached such an agreement with the USSR.

But, if war does break out, I don't think Stalin would be very keen on actually sending the Red Army to Czechoslovakia, except perhaps a token force. If the capitalists are finishing their war by themselves, why waste resources to help them?

Or did Stalin for some reason hope that Czechoslovakia might go communist as a result of the Red Army's presence there (which seems very unlikely)?
Since he regarded Germany as a serious threat, it makes sense to help defeat them. And Czechoslovakia might not turn communist, but they would likely become an useful ally.
 
Do you have a source for that?

To my knowledge Hitler wanted a war in 1938 and Munich to fail, but I would have to look for a source to prove that, too;)


Not really a source, I simply asumed that from our perspective they knew a war 1938 would have been lost, but AH and friends might not have known this then, so they might have gone to war ;)
 
Since he regarded Germany as a serious threat, it makes sense to help defeat them.

Agreed, especially if France behaves like it did in 1939. I certainly did not think that reply through.

And Czechoslovakia might not turn communist, but they would likely become an useful ally.

Czechoslovakia would have remained benevolently neutral anyway, bar direct Soviet hostility (or its destruction).
 
Not really a source, I simply asumed that from our perspective they knew a war 1938 would have been lost, but AH and friends might not have known this then, so they might have gone to war ;)

While Hitler's 'friends' were uncomfortably aware of Germany's weakness to the extent of plotting to remove him should he actually declare war, such trivial things as a vast disparity of strength between Germany and the (potential) Allies weren't enough to deter Hitler.
 
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