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First, who would be the most likely person he would name? Ali?

Second, how would this affect the further development of the religion? Of course, the answer to this depends on the answer to the first question, but it would at least seem that there would be no basis for the split between Shias and Sunnis. If Muhammad chose Ali as successor, how would the different groups of Muslims, the emigrants (muhajirun) and the supporters (ansar) react to this? How would the various beduin groups in Arabia react? If the Ridda wars still happen, would the rebels get more or less support or would it not have any consequences on these wars? Would the attacks on the Byzantine and Sassanid empires still happen?
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