WI: Muhammad Ali loses in Manila

Rex Mundi

Banned
Muhammad Ali once said of the Thrilla in Manila, "Frazier quit just before I did. I didn't think I could fight any more." Ali's biographer and a number of other sources seem to corroborate that Joe Frazier wanted to (and asked to) keep going before the fight was stopped by his trainer Eddie Futch. Meanwhile, Ali intended to quit but was convinced to stay in for another round by his corner. It therefore seems quite likely that TiM might have been 1. Ali's first loss by knockout rather than points, 2. the first time Ali was beaten twice in a trilogy of fights with another boxer, and 3. an utter humiliation to Ali given what had transpired between him and Frazier before the fight.

So if Ali's corner throws in the towel after round 14, what would be the ramifications in America? The ensuing debate over Manila would quickly and inevitably take a highly racial nature. I can imagine Ali making any number of controversial statements to the press and challenging Frazier to a rematch. That the perceived "Uncle Tom" contender defeated the "black militant" champion might have significant cultural butterflies given boxing's importance at the time.

Frazier would certainly benefit from a highly unexpected resurgence, but I don't know if he would be willing or able to take his boxing career further at that point. IOTL, he only fought two more matches after Manila: one of them was his second loss against George Foreman, and the other a draw with the otherwise forgettable Floyd Cummings. Nevertheless Ali's reputation as the greatest boxer of his era (or perhaps even of all times, as he would put it) would be significantly shaken. For some reason I think that losing in Manila might slow or impede the integration of his image into mainstream white American culture, but I can't pinpoint why.
 
Did not know this about such a crucial moment in sports history :eek: I had myself wondered WI Frazier had gotten the fight to happen in any other (more climate controlled) setting, but had no idea that he came so close even in such circumstances.

This is very intriguing, and I agree there are going to be some serious cultural effects...
 

Rex Mundi

Banned
Did not know this about such a crucial moment in sports history :eek: I had myself wondered WI Frazier had gotten the fight to happen in any other (more climate controlled) setting, but had no idea that he came so close even in such circumstances.

This is very intriguing, and I agree there are going to be some serious cultural effects...

I've always considered the fight a win for Frazier in my mind. Ali wanted to give up but was forced to stay in, while Frazier wanted to stay in but was forced to give up.
 
The interesting thing is it would radically alter sports history as we know it. First of all, Ali would be seen as a quitter, and that would forever tarnish his reputation and his legacy. Now he might be able to fight through that like Roberto Duran did, but the problem is he was so close to the end of his career by the time the third Frazier fight ended that I just can't see how he does it. He didn't really have the time to undo the damage that quitting would do.

Second, and this is the big one, Frazier was NOT the same fighter after Manilla that he was before. He would not, IMO, hold the title for longer than one or two title defenses. First, let's look at the top ten in 1976:

Ken Norton (he won't fight him due to their history together)

George Foreman (the most likely person he fights in his first or second title defense. Foreman already crushed Foreman in 2 rounds in Jamaica and, in OTL, crushes him in the rematch in a lopsided 5 round blowout. Styles make fights, and Frazier's style was perfect for Foreman. So if he defends against Foreman look for his second reign to be very short.

Jimmy Young (very akward fighter who I thinks upsets Frazier. He is tough, durable, and catching Frazier at the perfect time. So now we have Jimmy Young as heavyweight champion. Not exactly exciting stuff)

Ron Lyle (I think Joe beats Ron, but he's going to pay a steep price for it. What ever is not left in the ring in Manilla is left in the ring against Ron Lyle)

Jerry Quarry (Joe already crushed him and nobody wants to see this fight again. No promoter will pay for this fight)

Earnie Shavers (a limited fighter, but with bonecrushing power. Again, style makes fights and I think Shavers has the style to crush a badly faded Joe Frazier)

So what we have is a badly discredited Ali, a short reign of Joe Frazier, and a boxing scene that suddenly is muddled and not particularly exciting. Let's say Frazier looks to avenge his defeat against Foreman. Well, Foreman crushes Frazier and then makes his first defence agaisnt Jimmy Young. We already saw Jimmy Young beat Foreman in OTL, so we see it a second time. Now here I suppose Ali might be in a position for another title fight, but when he fought Jimmy Young in OTL he won a very close, controverisal decision that most ringsiders felt should have gone to Young. So let's assume the same thing happens here: he wins a controversial decision. Well, that hardly rehabilitates Ali after quitting against Frazier. He then fights Ken Norton for the third time, and just like in OTL he wins another controversial split decision that fans do not agree with. What happens here is Muhammad Ali has turned into a literal pro wrestling heel. He quits against Frazier and receives a pair of gift decisions in his return? All you need is a shady manager in the background hitting guys with folding chairs to complete the image. Ali received a lot of goodwill in his final years, and his decisions against Young and Norton were overlooked because of that goodwill. Take the goodwill away from him quitting against Frazier and we have a much different image of Muhammad Ali today.

As for Frazier, I fear that winning in Manilla could convince him to fight on longer than he should. After losing to Foreman in a rematch he might be talked into a 4th fight with Ali and possibly a fight with up and coming Larry Holmes. Both of those fights would do terrible damage to Frazier, and I think Holmes destroys him inside of five rounds, which could badly damage his legacy. This AH Joe Frazier might even stick around long enough to get KO'ed by Gerry Cooney as well (shudder).
 
Here's a bonus question: How, if at all, would any of this affect the 1976 elections?



Hmmm. Tough. Maybe it becomes a political tool used by the right as a sort of analogy of the "comeback" of the real, everyday hardworking American. But that seems like it would be a bit of a stretch. By 1976 I don't think America was looking at Ali as the controversial athlete that they saw in the 1960s. He was way more mainstream by then
 
Major Physical Benefits to Ali

A loss to Frazier in Manila would have turned out, as time went on, as a victory for Ali, as far as his health was concerned.
Ali could have retired then ... meaning no bouts with Leon Spinks in 1978 and that fight with Tex Cobb in 1980, which Howard Cosell mentioned after that fight, that he was not going to witness any more bouts. That fight went the full 15 rounds and no one was knocked down or out. The decision went to Ali but alot of physical damage was done to him.
Today, at age 70, he may have been in better condition if he had lost that fight to Frazier and then retired.
 

Rex Mundi

Banned
I largely agree, Foreman no longer has the fire to defend himself against younger contender. Neither did Ali, for that matter. One thing I can see happening is an earlier decline of boxing in this scenario.

Ugh, meant Frazier, not Foreman. Foreman stayed healthy forever.
 
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