16th end 17th century was pretty destructive also for Slovak teritories - Ottomans rides, destruction of villages, enslavement and deportation of local to Empire. Plus at least 3 Hungarian nobility uprisings against Habsburgs had some part of conflict fought on territory where Slovaks were majority. So if this 2 centuries are calm or relatively calm for Hungary propore for Slovaks itaynbe even better.
 
16th end 17th century was pretty destructive also for Slovak teritories - Ottomans rides, destruction of villages, enslavement and deportation of local to Empire. Plus at least 3 Hungarian nobility uprisings against Habsburgs had some part of conflict fought on territory where Slovaks were majority. So if this 2 centuries are calm or relatively calm for Hungary propore for Slovaks itaynbe even better.
I respectfully disagree. Even in Royal Hungary, most of the destruction took place on the low lands, where the vast majority of the population was ethnic Hungarian, while the more mountainous areas where the Slovaks lived were less affected, but indeed they were couldn't avoid the destruction entirely. However, the Slovaks expanded their living space after the liberation of Hungary, when the Hungarians started migrating Southwards to repopulate the vast uninhabited areas in Central Hungary.
If the Hungarians doesn't move South, since the areas there are not so depopulated, then the Slovak migration is limited as well.
 
Dunno. According to one Hungarian historian's estimate, around 200,000 Serbs may have migrated to Hungary before Mohacs. Matthias Corvinus himself boasts of overseeing the migration of 110,000 Serbs to his kingdom in just one of his campaigns (while that particular number could be exaggerated, it testifies to the massive size of these movements).

Now, some of these people must have been killed or enslaved in various Ottoman raids...but if we take into account that the Kingdom of Hungary had around 3.3 million total population on the eve of the fall, an estimate of 4-5% ethnic Serbs seems reasonable.

But I suppose this isn't terribly important to the scenario.


I don't think the Russian intervention in Hungary would happen, actually. In OTL, the Russians only decided to intervene after a long wait; and it was a decision they made with extreme reluctance.

In a scenario where Hungary is not merely holding out, but beating the Habsburg armies black and blue...Russia would probably decide that intervening is not worth the trouble. The Tsar's main concern was revolutionary Hungary's (exxagarated) ties with the Poles; and a stronger Hungary would likely make Russia address these concerns by entering talks with Budapest instead.
Fair point, but that kiss on the ring by the Austrian Emperor could be still tempting for any Russian tsar ;). Seriously though, what could possibly happen if the Hungarians manage to win? The Hungarian elite feared the Russian power, so a complete break would be a very foolish move on the long run.
 
Dunno. According to one Hungarian historian's estimate, around 200,000 Serbs may have migrated to Hungary before Mohacs. Matthias Corvinus himself boasts of overseeing the migration of 110,000 Serbs to his kingdom in just one of his campaigns (while that particular number could be exaggerated, it testifies to the massive size of these movements).

Now, some of these people must have been killed or enslaved in various Ottoman raids...but if we take into account that the Kingdom of Hungary had around 3.3 million total population on the eve of the fall, an estimate of 4-5% ethnic Serbs seems reasonable.

But I suppose this isn't terribly important to th
I forgot to address this part of your post. I was not aware of the vastness of Serbian migration pre-Mohács, it's interesting. However most of the Serbs settled on the South of Hungary, which at time was the most affected by the Turkish raids, the population would probably decrease significantly, maybe they could migrate even more northwards, but the existing population there is likely to assimilate them after some time.
 
Map of estimated Hungarian majority areas in 1500.
503_nagykep.jpg

Something similar to this should preserved in TTL.
 
I respectfully disagree. Even in Royal Hungary, most of the destruction took place on the low lands, where the vast majority of the population was ethnic Hungarian, while the more mountainous areas where the Slovaks lived were less affected, but indeed they were couldn't avoid the destruction entirely. However, the Slovaks expanded their living space after the liberation of Hungary, when the Hungarians started migrating Southwards to repopulate the vast uninhabited areas in Central Hungary.
If the Hungarians doesn't move South, since the areas there are not so depopulated, then the Slovak migration is limited as well.
Actually that is my point too. Migration to lowlands in central Hungary, Croatia, today Serbia but also Romania created pretty big Slovak enclaves but thinned population somewhere else and more exposed these enclaves to assimilation. Let's assume everything going better for Kingdom. No Uprisings means now warfare in Uplands. So even better for local population.
 
Does the PoD have to be in the Ottoman wars?

How about going a little bit more back: Mongol invasions. Have the Hungarians be more successful early on, settle the Cumans and have the king successfully bring the nobility in line by the time the Mongols arrive, so you have a better led, better prepared and larger Hungarian force present at Mohi. Have them win a very decisive victory. Reading on the battle, I think it's absolutely possible, since it was a river crossing which did not favor the Mongols. Just have a larger light cavalry contingent (the Cumans) who will screen the Mongol right wing trying to ford the river and have the king actually be prepared to leave camp in time so the bulk of the Hungarian force can engage the Mongols while they are forcing the river crossing (OTL the Hungarians had only a small vanguard there while the main force was in camp, not even in armor). The battle has to be so disastrous that the Mongols have to retreat to Halich to regroup. This would give time to fortify the mountain passes, so only small raiding forces and not large armies could cross. Remember, the Hungarians only have to hold out for two years, before Ogedei dies and the Mongol have to return for Kurultai. Maybe even better: have Batu Khan injured in the battle by a crossbow bolt and die shortly after the battle. Maybe this creates enough confusion for the Mongol force to entertain themselves until Ogedei finally dies.

That, or just have Ogedei die two years early. But that would have enormous butterflies all over Eastern Europe.
 
Does the PoD have to be in the Ottoman wars?

How about going a little bit more back: Mongol invasions. Have the Hungarians be more successful early on, settle the Cumans and have the king successfully bring the nobility in line by the time the Mongols arrive, so you have a better led, better prepared and larger Hungarian force present at Mohi. Have them win a very decisive victory. Reading on the battle, I think it's absolutely possible, since it was a river crossing which did not favor the Mongols. Just have a larger light cavalry contingent (the Cumans) who will screen the Mongol right wing trying to ford the river and have the king actually be prepared to leave camp in time so the bulk of the Hungarian force can engage the Mongols while they are forcing the river crossing (OTL the Hungarians had only a small vanguard there while the main force was in camp, not even in armor). The battle has to be so disastrous that the Mongols have to retreat to Halich to regroup. This would give time to fortify the mountain passes, so only small raiding forces and not large armies could cross. Remember, the Hungarians only have to hold out for two years, before Ogedei dies and the Mongol have to return for Kurultai. Maybe even better: have Batu Khan injured in the battle by a crossbow bolt and die shortly after the battle. Maybe this creates enough confusion for the Mongol force to entertain themselves until Ogedei finally dies.

That, or just have Ogedei die two years early. But that would have enormous butterflies all over Eastern Europe.
I'm trying to find a POD wich doesn't change the course of history until the middle of 19th century, so while your idea is very interesting, that's not what I looking for.
 
Actually that is my point too. Migration to lowlands in central Hungary, Croatia, today Serbia but also Romania created pretty big Slovak enclaves but thinned population somewhere else and more exposed these enclaves to assimilation. Let's assume everything going better for Kingdom. No Uprisings means now warfare in Uplands. So even better for local population.
Assimilation was really not a thing to worry about until the 1800s, the Hungarian population was too weak for that. When I mentioned the Slovak migration, I was mainly reffering to the migration to the neighboring territories next to the Slovak heartlands, for example into Pozsony, Hont or Nógrád counties though.
Eventually the mountainous area would limit the possible growth of the Slovak population, in my opinion.
 
Assimilation was really not a thing to worry about until the 1800s, the Hungarian population was too weak for that. When I mentioned the Slovak migration, I was mainly reffering to the migration to the neighboring territories next to the Slovak heartlands, for example into Pozsony, Hont or Nógrád counties though.
Eventually the mountainous area would limit the possible growth of the Slovak population, in my opinion.
Poszony itself maybe. However surrounding areas were mostly Slovak speaking. Some Germans. Bit to SouthEast along Danube more Hungarian. I guess rhough you are right that Ottoman rides emtied southern region of Felvidek from population opening it for people more south. Rhing is even 17th and 18th century German and Hungarian (not all of them ethnically Hungarian though) noted low population grow among Hungarians and very steep among Slovak population.
Mountain region limited grow of population even OTL. Slovaks were emigrating internalyas you noted. When internal emigration was not possible Canada and US become another center of emigration. Actually Imperial Russia could be too. I have seen document about some obscure christian sect emigrating to Russia from A-H. Don't remember if they were Slovak, Moravians or mixed ethnicities.
 
Poszony itself maybe. However surrounding areas were mostly Slovak speaking. Some Germans. Bit to SouthEast along Danube more Hungarian. I guess rhough you are right that Ottoman rides emtied southern region of Felvidek from population opening it for people more south. Rhing is even 17th and 18th century German and Hungarian (not all of them ethnically Hungarian though) noted low population grow among Hungarians and very steep among Slovak population.
Mountain region limited grow of population even OTL. Slovaks were emigrating internalyas you noted. When internal emigration was not possible Canada and US become another center of emigration. Actually Imperial Russia could be too. I have seen document about some obscure christian sect emigrating to Russia from A-H. Don't remember if they were Slovak, Moravians or mixed ethnicities.
Well, look at the map I posted, it reflects the demographic situation in 1500. As you can see, many-many areas that are today Slovak populated is at this point is still Hungarian, for example the bigger chunk of Pozsony county as well, while another big chunk of it was German populated. But this doesn't matter anyway. The main question is, that what effects would have a Hungary with the demographics I presented in my OP, and with that map in mind?
 
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