WI: More successful Japan in Russo-Japanese war?

[Coulsdon Eagle]

Would the Great Powers try to stop Japan annexing Russian territory, instead of Russian sphere of influence, in Vladivostok, much as they did with Japan's grab of Port Arthur after the Sino-Japanese War in 1895? Might encourage other warlike natives to try to throw off the colonial yoke?

 

[knightdepaix]

Would the Great Powers try to stop Japan annexing Russian territory, instead of Russian sphere of influence, in Vladivostok, much as they did with Japan's grab of Port Arthur after the Sino-Japanese War in 1895? Might encourage other warlike natives to try to throw off the colonial yoke?

Swap Vladivostok and Northern Sakhalin with Port Arthur and nearby area?

 

[knightdepaix]

Korea non-existent?

 

[wcv215]

Germany has no reason to like France or Russia, and would be looking for excuses to take advantage of the opportunity if France and Russia were in a war against powerful enemies.

Why on Earth would Germany get involved. Having Russia get bogged down fighting in the East was exactly what they wanted. Let the Russians and the French if they're stupid enough to go to war with Britain fight it out. Germany has no reason to fight with either side.

 

[The Gunslinger]

I don't think Japan can get much more than they had historically unless Britain gets involved after Dogger Bank. Sakhalin is a given, a much bigger indemnity and all of the Manchurian railways is probably all they can reasonably get.

 

[RMcD94]

The war, like the Sino-Japanese war before it, could have easily gone against Japan at a number of points. I won't say lucky but they certainly performed well above reasonable expectations in both instances.

Nonetheless, this was not the understanding at the time:

The Russian delegates did not doubt that they had performed a miracle. They had managed to avoid paying an indemnity, and the only territory they had yielded was half of a bleak island that the Japanese had already occupied. It is small wonder that they drank champagne toasts at the celebration after the signing. The Japanese did not attend the celebration. Komura and his colleagues had signed a treaty quite against their own wishes because they had been so ordered, and they could easily imagine the stormy reception they would receive after their return to Japan.

Still. The Japanese were so broke they would have given up Sakhalin completely:

And no money was forthcoming from the Russians:

 

[knightdepaix]

Stratfor examines Japan's primary geographic challenge of sustaining its large population with little arable land and few natural resources.

 

[knightdepaix]