WI: More successful Japan in Russo-Japanese war?

[Library of Alexandria]

So let's just fuck over Russia even harder, shall we? The Russo-Japanese war was one of the worst defeats in modern memory for the general psyche of a nation- imagine Alsace, but if it was the French losing it to Switzerland or something. There were even opportunities for it to go even worse, but the Russians managed to not completely disgrace themselves just yet (perhaps the mad dash of the Retzian fails or never happens). How would the Russians respond to such humiliation? Could the war have gone so poorly that 1905 had become an earlier Feburary?

 

[Protagoras]

If you really want to screw the Russians, make the Dogger Bank Incident worse and bring Britain into the war in support of Japan.

 

[Library of Alexandria]

If you really want to screw the Russians, make the Dogger Bank Incident worse and bring Britain into the war in support of Japan.

That would start a world war, wouldn't it? Given the French being allied with the Russians, I highly doubt they wouldn't get involved (the Entente Cordial was barely 6 months old at the time).

 

[Aghasverov]

Hmmm... don't know about this one, Nicky screwed himself pretty hard as it was, in the WAR... Now the peace, that was a different matter. The Japanese could have pushed harder at Portsmouth, and maybe gotten more from Russia than they did... dissatisfaction over the terms of the Treaty practically caused riots in Japan, IIRC...

 

[Library of Alexandria]

Hmmm... don't know about this one, Nicky screwed himself pretty hard as it was, in the WAR... Now the peace, that was a different matter. The Japanese could have pushed harder at Portsmouth, and maybe gotten more from Russia than they did... dissatisfaction over the terms of the Treaty practically caused riots in Japan, IIRC...

I'm fully aware that the Russians had screwed themselves over quite a bit, but I'm asking how it could be worse- especially because the Russians actually did quite well on land.

 

[Vinization]

Port Arthur resisted the Japanese for five months, and they lost quite a few soldiers and ships during the siege. Could the place have fallen to them earlier by a direct assault? The Japanese position at the peace table would surely be a little stronger if they had more cash and men to spare.

 

[edgeworthy]

Port Arthur resisted the Japanese for five months, and they lost quite a few soldiers and ships during the siege. Could the place have fallen to them earlier by a direct assault? The Japanese position at the peace table would surely be a little stronger if they had more cash and men to spare.

If the Yashima and Hatsuse are not lost to mines and the Hitachi Maru delivers the Siege Howitzers, then its quite possible that the siege would be considerably shorter.

 

[Protagoras]

That would start a world war, wouldn't it? Given the French being allied with the Russians, I highly doubt they wouldn't get involved (the Entente Cordial was barely 6 months old at the time).

The French would face tough decisions. Germany has no reason to like France or Russia, and would be looking for excuses to take advantage of the opportunity if France and Russia were in a war against powerful enemies. The French would know this, so I expect they would try very hard not to get involved, so I think there's a good chance the war wouldn't expand (I believe their actual treaty obligations to Russia at this point only applied to war with Germany, and in any event politicians and diplomats can always find ways to weasel out of things they really don't want to do). And if it did expand, again Germany (and others with gripes against France or Russia) would likely try to take advantage of the opportunity, so even if it did blow up it would probably be a very unbalanced and so very short war, not a prolonged drag like the world wars.

 

[Alanith]

The French would face tough decisions. Germany has no reason to like France or Russia, and would be looking for excuses to take advantage of the opportunity if France and Russia were in a war against powerful enemies. The French would know this, so I expect they would try very hard not to get involved, so I think there's a good chance the war wouldn't expand (I believe their actual treaty obligations to Russia at this point only applied to war with Germany, and in any event politicians and diplomats can always find ways to weasel out of things they really don't want to do). And if it did expand, again Germany (and others with gripes against France or Russia) would likely try to take advantage of the opportunity, so even if it did blow up it would probably be a very unbalanced and so very short war, not a prolonged drag like the world wars.

Exactly. France and Russia vs Japan, the British Empire, probably Germany, maybe AH and Italy...

 

[stubear1012]

I looked on Wiki and the Japanese people were angry at the Treaty of Portsmouth. I am assuming that they want what was know as Outer Manchuria. Please let me know if I am correct. What would have been the impact of Japan got the land colored in pink and some indemnity.

"Roosevelt earned the Nobel Peace Prize for his effort. George E. Mowry concludes that Roosevelt handled the arbitration well, doing an "excellent job of balancing Russian and Japanese power in the Orient, where the supremacy of either constituted a threat to growing America."[79] As Japan had won every battle on land and sea and as the Japanese people did not understand that the costs of the war had pushed their nation to the verge of bankruptcy, the Japanese public was enraged by the Treaty of Portsmouth as many Japanese had expected the war to end with Russia ceding the Russian Far East to Japan and for Russia to pay an indemnity.[80] The United States was widely blamed in Japan for the Treaty of Portsmouth with Roosevelt having allegedly "cheated" Japan out of its rightful claims at the peace conference. On 5 September 1905 the Hibiya incendiary incident as the anti-American riots were euphemistically described erupted in Tokyo, and lasted for three days, forcing the government to declare martial law.[80]"

 

[GrandMaster]

So let's just fuck over Russia even harder, shall we? The Russo-Japanese war was one of the worst defeats in modern memory for the general psyche of a nation- imagine Alsace, but if it was the French losing it to Switzerland or something. There were even opportunities for it to go even worse, but the Russians managed to not completely disgrace themselves just yet (perhaps the mad dash of the Retzian fails or never happens). How would the Russians respond to such humiliation? Could the war have gone so poorly that 1905 had become an earlier 1905?

I think you mean 1917.

 

[Library of Alexandria]

I think you mean 1917.

Oops, yeah, I did.

 

[knightdepaix]

View attachment 574506

1) Outer Manchuria needed much investment to exploit its resources, in timber, coal and tin and others.
2) Trans-Siberian Railway passed thru Outer Manchuria. If the land would be ceded to Japan, what would the situation and the ownership of the railway be?
3) Japan as an upcoming regional power needed resources as early as possible. So an British or French Alliance would help.
Please note that the famed Russian short story author Anton Chekhov recorded his travel experience in 1890 -- mere 15 years before the War -- in Sakhalin and Vladivostok. Given the living and development conditions of both places, they would not have changed significantly in 1905 to 1906. This realization supports my point #1. G

In the light of the 3 points above, the Outer Manchuria and the Railway ownership and Chekhov's experiences, it is recommeded Japan would have owned the whole Sakhalin island, thus securing its crude oil and lumber resources, plus the right to timber, coal and tin mining in OM with Russia. However, the Russian side during the talk for Treaty of Portsmouth insisted not to cede the whole island, if I recalled correctly. For simple transportation on the island, immigrant could use wood gas in the internal combustion engine of cars and trucks. Sawdust and pellets from lumber and paper mills leftover materials derive the wood gas.

Given the Japanese governance was more proactive in improving the Southern part of the island than its Russian and Soviet Union counterpart in the north in the OTL in early 20th centuries, in an ATL Japanese lumber and paper companies with government subsidies installed wood gas refuel stations on the side of a road. Paper and timber mills sent leftover wood materials to the refuel stations where they would be ground and processed to produce wood gas on demand. The wood gas was burned to supply its neigborhood energy and would refill the gas cylinder on a truck. The disadvantage is the slow start up speed, usually not an issue for civilian use. Military vehicles would still use liquid and gas derived from crude oil.

Then this ATL would be how Japan would win more trophies.

I think you mean 1917.

Oops, yeah, I did.

In OTL, Japan occupied northern part of the island and some communities in OM in 1920s. So winning more lands after the war would cease the incentives to take over those place as in OTL, given the ever watchful American eye.

 

[Barry Bull]

Hmmm... don't know about this one, Nicky screwed himself pretty hard as it was, in the WAR... Now the peace, that was a different matter. The Japanese could have pushed harder at Portsmouth, and maybe gotten more from Russia than they did... dissatisfaction over the terms of the Treaty practically caused riots in Japan, IIRC...

The Japanese financial position was quite precarious and it was the Japanese government who initiated the peace talks.
https://thediplomat.com/2012/11/the-russo-japanese-war-dollars-and-cents/

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

That would start a world war, wouldn't it? Given the French being allied with the Russians, I highly doubt they wouldn't get involved (the Entente Cordial was barely 6 months old at the time).

I don't think they'd be so eager to go to war against Britain, having just signed Entente Cordiale even if it was recent. They wouldn't go to war for Britain in this case, but I don't think they'd got to war against them. I think France would stay neutral. The reason for allying with both Britain and Russia was to be in a better position to stand against Germany. Fighting Britain undermines that. I think they'd only enter the war if Germany did.

In any event since the OP is WI Japan does better, however they get there, I'm guessing Sakhalin would be one united Japanese island called Karafuto. Getting Outer Manchuria seems like a stretch unless Britain is committed bankrolling the expedition rather than just sending the IRN to the bottom of the sea. Maybe the higher military success butterflies away the Taisho democracy and militarists keep the ability to bring down the government rather than losing and regaining it. That could lead to a more fanatical militarist government. Britain declaring war on Russia would have interesting butterflies for WWI.

 

[Lord High Executioner]

3) Japan as an upcoming regional power needed resources as early as possible. So an British or French Alliance would help.

You mean like the one Japan and Britain signed in 1902?
Or did I miss some key part of the discussion?

 

[Pauh the federalist]

As a more lenient peace treaty then the entire region of outer Manchuria (pink on map 1), how about all Russian land south of the amur river (pink land in map 2 and river on map 3) along with Sakhalin island (map 4) which would give japan hegemony over all land around the sea of japan (sea in red map 5 closer look map 6, note made both bigger for detail).
1,

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

 

[Library of Alexandria]

As a more lenient peace treaty then the entire region of outer Manchuria (pink on map 1), how about all Russian land south of the amur river (pink land in map 2 and river on map 3) along with Sakhalin island (map 4) which would give japan hegemony over all land around the sea of japan (sea in red map 5 closer look map 6, note made both bigger for detail).
1,View attachment 574627 2.View attachment 574623 3.View attachment 574621 4.View attachment 574624
5.View attachment 574636 6.View attachment 574622

could they get away with annexing that much at the time, though? Again, the IJN was better at power projection than the IJA.

 

[naraic]

A moderate indemnity might make things a lot better for Japan at treaty time.

They had a lot of loans for the war and had to pay them back.

It wont change borders but cash can be king.

 

[stubear1012]

Lets suppose that the Siege of Port Arthur goes the way that Edgeworth said and the siege ends sooner with fewer Japanese causalities.

Is the following possible?

1) The Japanese pivot and starts to lay siege to Vladivostok. Also Japanese troops go north on the railroad and raise the Japanese flag over various towns and villages. Before the Japanese run out of money and men, Vladivostok falls and the Japanese claim that they conquered the land east of the Amur river. While they may not occupy all of it, they do control Vladivostok and a a great deal of the towns and villages along the railroad. Some of that control may just be a squad of infantry men and the Japanese flag at the local railroad station.
2) The Japanese invasion of Sakhalin more successful and they conquer all of that island. They also conquer all of the Kuril Islands.
3) The Japanese send troops to help Gunji to hold on to his conquest in Kamchatka.

"During the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–1905, Gunji, a retired Japanese military man and local settler in Shumshu, led an invading party to the Kamchatka coast. Russia sent reinforcements to the area to capture and intern this group. After the war was over, Japan received fishing rights in Russian waters as part of the Russo-Japanese Fisheries Agreement until 1945. " Wiki

So when the peace talks start, Japan has a lot more Russian territory under their control. They trade Gunji holdings on Kamchatka for the Kuril islands, Sakhalin and fishing rights. They refuse to give up Vladivostok and claim all of the land east of the Amur river. Japan are able to obtain more financial help to stay afloat financially. Russia is broke and facing widespread unrest finally agrees.

Japan now has plenty of land to settle their population on and to develop. Japan continues to work with Great Britain on being a barrier to Russian expansion. Great Britain makes a series of long term loans to Japan to help develop their new territory and pay off some of their shorter term loans. This relationship continues to grow.

From Wiki

• 1902. The Japanese–British alliance was signed in London on 30 January. It was a diplomatic milestone that saw an end to Britain's splendid isolation, and removed the need for Britain to build up its navy in the Pacific.[8][9]
• 1905. The Japanese–British alliance was renewed and expanded. Official diplomatic relations were upgraded, with ambassadors being exchanged for the first time.
• 1907. In July, British thread company J. & P. Coats launched Teikoku Seishi and began to thrive.
• 1908. The Japan-British Society was founded in order to foster cultural and social understanding.
• 1909 Fushimi Sadanaru returns to Britain to convey the thanks of the Japanese government for British advice and assistance during the Russo-Japanese War.

Guide to the Japan–British Exhibition of 1910.

• 1910. Sadanaru represents Japan at the state funeral of Edward VII, and meets the new king George V at Buckingham Palace.
• 1910. The Japan–British Exhibition is held at Shepherd's Bush in London. Japan made a successful effort to display its new status as a great power by emphasizing its new role as a colonial power in Asia. [10]
• 1911. The Japanese – British alliance was renewed with approval of the dominions.
• 1913. The IJN Kongō, the last of the British-built warships for Japan's navy, enters service.
• 1914–1915. Japan joined World War I as Britain's ally under the terms of the alliance and captured German-occupied Tsingtao (Qingdao) in China Mainland. They also help Australia and New Zealand capture archipelagos like the Marshall Islands and the Mariana Islands.
• 1915. The Twenty-One Demands would have given Japan varying degrees of control over all of China, and would have prohibited European powers from extending their Chinese operations any further.[11]
• 1917. The Imperial Japanese Navy helps the Royal Navy and allied navies patrol the Mediterranean against Central Powers ships.
• 1917-1935. Close relationships between the two country steadily worsens. [12]