WI: More Reich Oil Imports

[Asp]

So I’ve been reading up on the Nazi oil issues during the war recently and one thing I wondered about is whether it would be possible to alleviate the issue, at least to a degree, with increased oil exports from the Middle East through Turkey and perhaps the USSR before Barbarossa.

Iraq is the obvious location because it has a rail link to Germany and a serious core of anti-allied military leaders during the war. My idea was that Rashid Ali’s coup doesn’t happen (maybe France fights on and they aren’t emboldened by Syria going Vichy). He remains as PM and continues exerting pro-Axis influence, including selling oil to the Axis through intermediaries in Turkey and the USSR. If he could get say 500k tons a year to them that way, what would the effects be for their war machine? Also, could more be smuggled through Spain? Maybe a million tons a year total in between the two?

Would have really helped the German motorized units during Barbarossa for sure.

 

[Derek Pullem]

So I’ve been reading up on the Nazi oil issues during the war recently and one thing I wondered about is whether it would be possible to alleviate the issue, at least to a degree, with increased oil exports from the Middle East through Turkey and perhaps the USSR before Barbarossa.

Iraq is the obvious location because it has a rail link to Germany and a serious core of anti-allied military leaders during the war. My idea was that Rashid Ali’s coup doesn’t happen (maybe France fights on and they aren’t emboldened by Syria going Vichy). He remains as PM and continues exerting pro-Axis influence, including selling oil to the Axis through intermediaries in Turkey and the USSR. If he could get say 500k tons a year to them that way, what would the effects be for their war machine? Also, could more be smuggled through Spain? Maybe a million tons a year total in between the two?

Would have really helped the German motorized units during Barbarossa for sure.

Not going to happen.
UK and USSR invaded Iran because of pro-Axis leanings so any Iraqi state which shows the same tendencies will suffer the same fate
How are the "smuggler oil tankers" going to get past a RN blockade (supplemented by the Americans later). 500,000 tonnes of oil = an extra tanker per week getting to Spain - someone would notice.
Besides - the most urgent consumers were probably not the Panzers but the Luftwaffe.

 

[Catspoke]

As far as fuel, the best way is to not invade the Soviet Union, and import as much as you can from them, while using the money saved from not invading to build more synthetic fuel plants.

Any transfer of significant fuel through Spain and Turkey would get noticed by Britain which would end that by force if necessary. As far as Spain its the USA that provides them with oil and all that was pretty measured and controlled.

 

[Asp]

Not going to happen.
UK and USSR invaded Iran because of pro-Axis leanings so any Iraqi state which shows the same tendencies will suffer the same fate
How are the "smuggler oil tankers" going to get past a RN blockade (supplemented by the Americans later). 500,000 tonnes of oil = an extra tanker per week getting to Spain - someone would notice.
Besides - the most urgent consumers were probably not the Panzers but the Luftwaffe.

As far as fuel, the best way is to not invade the Soviet Union, and import as much as you can from them, while using the money saved from not invading to build more synthetic fuel plants.

Any transfer of significant fuel through Spain and Turkey would get noticed by Britain which would end that by force if necessary. As far as Spain its the USA that provides them with oil and all that was pretty measured and controlled.

Idk would an extra tanker a week be enough to draw significant attention?

I agree not having them go to war with the USSR is the best way other than having the Matzen, Algyo, and Dutch oil fields get discovered before WWII, but even just not going to war with the USSR wouldn’t have provided what they needed by itself. They didn’t have enough to export much more to Germany besides what they did.

If Barbarossa is delayed, could the Germans buy through them in addition to the exports from the commercial agreements? The USSR was a big country and they lied shamelessly about their economic growth. Is it possible that they could order 2-3 million more tons internationally disguised as Soviet consumption?

 

[Derek Pullem]

Idk would an extra tanker a week be enough to draw significant attention?

I agree not having them go to war with the USSR is the best way other than having the Matzen, Algyo, and Dutch oil fields get discovered before WWII, but even just not going to war with the USSR wouldn’t have provided what they needed by itself. They didn’t have enough to export much more to Germany besides what they did.

If Barbarossa is delayed, could the Germans buy through them in addition to the exports from the commercial agreements? The USSR was a big country and they lied shamelessly about their economic growth. Is it possible that they could order 2-3 million more tons internationally disguised as Soviet consumption?

Yes - every shipment of oil to Spain had to be accounted for - Spain was already on reduced oil imports due to the Allied blockade

The Allies, Spain, And Oil In World War II

www.nber.org

 

[PMN1]

An interesting article here on the history of European oil and gas, readable on line or downloadable as a PDF

The history of the European oil and gas industry (1600s–2000s)

The history of the European oil and gas industry reflects local and global political events, economic constraints, and the personal endeavours of individual petroleum geoscientists, as much as it does the development of technologies and the underlying geology of the region. Europe and Europeans...

sp.lyellcollection.org

 

[Catspoke]

Idk would an extra tanker a week be enough to draw significant attention?

I agree not having them go to war with the USSR is the best way other than having the Matzen, Algyo, and Dutch oil fields get discovered before WWII, but even just not going to war with the USSR wouldn’t have provided what they needed by itself. They didn’t have enough to export much more to Germany besides what they did.

If Barbarossa is delayed, could the Germans buy through them in addition to the exports from the commercial agreements? The USSR was a big country and they lied shamelessly about their economic growth. Is it possible that they could order 2-3 million more tons internationally disguised as Soviet consumption?

Germany bought soy beans from manchuria on a pass thru basis across the transsiberian before imvadingCertainly small amounts of strategic supplies could come across the soviet union like rubber.

 

[Catspoke]

Oil is just such a bulk quantity and the sources are under usa, british or dutch control.

 

[Asp]

Yes - every shipment of oil to Spain had to be accounted for - Spain was already on reduced oil imports due to the Allied blockade

The Allies, Spain, And Oil In World War II

www.nber.org

I didn’t know about that, thanks for the link. I knew about the measures they took regarding tungsten, but that’s new to me.

An interesting article here on the history of European oil and gas, readable on line or downloadable as a PDF

The history of the European oil and gas industry (1600s–2000s)

The history of the European oil and gas industry reflects local and global political events, economic constraints, and the personal endeavours of individual petroleum geoscientists, as much as it does the development of technologies and the underlying geology of the region. Europe and Europeans...

sp.lyellcollection.org

Thanks!

Oil is just such a bulk quantity and the sources are under usa, british or dutch control.

The USSR though was huge and was shameless about lying in its economic growth reports. It also has rail and sea links to the Middle East. If they wanted to purchase and reexport a couple million tons of oil, could they do it?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

The table below shows that Romania's peak interwar production was 8.5 million tons in 1936, but the maximum produced 1940-44 was 5.7 million tons in 1940. Production did not return to 1936 levels until 1952. However, production was 10 million tons in 1955 and was between 12 and 13 million tons for most of the 1960s.

European Crude Petroleum Production 1931-69​

Would it have been simpler to get more oil from Romania, be it by fair means or foul?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

These are some spreadsheets that I did for another thread. As far as I can remember the tables stop at 1941 because the source documents didn't have the figures for 1942 to 1945.

Germany 1931-41

Austria 1931-41

 

[Asp]

The table below shows that Romania's peak interwar production was 8.5 million tons in 1936, but the maximum produced 1940-44 was 5.7 million tons in 1940. Production did not return to 1936 levels until 1952. However, production was 10 million tons in 1955 and was between 12 and 13 million tons for most of the 1960s.

European Crude Petroleum Production 1931-69​

View attachment 598420

Would it have been simpler to get more oil from Romania, be it by fair means or foul?

These are some spreadsheets that I did for another thread. As far as I can remember the tables stop at 1941 because there source documents didn't have the figures for 1942 to 1945.

Germany 1931-41
View attachment 598460

Austria 1931-41
View attachment 598462​

Yeah, IIRC they could have bought like 1-2 million more tons of oil from Romania but they didn't make the deliveries of natural resources they were supposed to (mostly coal), so Antonescu gave them much less than they expected. If they got a bunch more, either through imports or discovering Europeans oil fields earlier, they wouldn't need to put so much coal into synthetic oil production and they could get more from Romania.

Do you know why production collapsed so completely during the war? Was it just lack of foreign technology to run the refineries and fields?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Yeah, IIRC they could have bought like 1-2 million more tons of oil from Romania but they didn't make the deliveries of natural resources they were supposed to (mostly coal), so Antonescu gave them much less than they expected. If they got a bunch more, either through imports or discovering Europeans oil fields earlier, they wouldn't need to put so much coal into synthetic oil production and they could get more from Romania.

IIRC from reading the United States Strategic Bombing Survey the oil in Austria and Germany wasn't suitable for aviation fuel. If that is correct the Germans will still have to develop a large synthetic oil industry to provide aviation fuel for the Luftwaffe. Therefore, there won't be any more coal to trade for more Romanian oil.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Do you know why production collapsed so completely during the war? Was it just lack of foreign technology to run the refineries and fields?

I don't know whose production you are referring to.

 

[tomo pauk]

Trade coal, military and other tech, and basically anything the Romanians want for their oil.
Trade with Soviets, as per OTL, but don't attack them in 1941.

These two solve a lot of German problems with fuel (and a lot of other problems) due to greater availability and far smaller consumption.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

So I’ve been reading up on the Nazi oil issues during the war recently and one thing I wondered about is whether it would be possible to alleviate the issue, at least to a degree, with increased oil exports from the Middle East through Turkey and perhaps the USSR before Barbarossa.

Iraq is the obvious location because it has a rail link to Germany and a serious core of anti-allied military leaders during the war. My idea was that Rashid Ali’s coup doesn’t happen (maybe France fights on and they aren’t emboldened by Syria going Vichy). He remains as PM and continues exerting pro-Axis influence, including selling oil to the Axis through intermediaries in Turkey and the USSR. If he could get say 500k tons a year to them that way, what would the effects be for their war machine? Also, could more be smuggled through Spain? Maybe a million tons a year total in between the two?

Would have really helped the German motorized units during Barbarossa for sure.

The problem of obtaining oil from Iraq or via Spain is similar to getting more oil from Romania. That is, they have to pay for it.

That assumes that the UK and US governments would allow it.

AFIAK the Turks didn't supply any raw materials to the Germans because the UK and US outbid them. I suspect that the UK and US would use the same tactic to prevent Germany from buying oil from Iraq in a TL where the Rashid Ali coup didn't happen.

As others have explained it wasn't possible to smuggle oil through Spain.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Do you know why production collapsed so completely during the war? Was it just lack of foreign technology to run the refineries and fields?

I don't know whose production you are referring to.

I'd imagine Romania's, given you referred to production not returning to 1936 levels until 1952?

 

[BlackDragon98]

Only way German can get oil from Iraq and Iran is if they send troops to defend the 2 regimes there against the Allies.
Otherwise, it's impossible for any oil to get out.

On a side note, German troops in Iran make for a very easy invasion route into Soviet Caucasus, right into the oilfields of Baku and Maikop..

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

I'd imagine Romania's, given you referred to production not returning to 1936 levels until 1952?

If @Asp did mean Romania an important reason would be the Allied bombing.

 

[BELFAST]

The oil in Libya is much closer and under Italian control.
So you need a POD control where the Italians find the oil early.