WI: Mongols invaded Byzantine Empire

What if Batu Khan invaded the Byzantine Empire after taking on Russia, instead of pushing into Hungary and Austria as in OTL? Why did they leave Constantinople alone anyways?

What if the Mongols sized Constantinople and made it a Khanate centuries before the Ottomans captured it?
 
What if Batu Khan invaded the Byzantine Empire after taking on Russia, instead of pushing into Hungary and Austria as in OTL? Why did they leave Constantinople alone anyways?

What if the Mongols sized Constantinople and made it a Khanate centuries before the Ottomans captured it?

For some reason I don't see much of a Constantinople left for the Ottomans to capture:D:D:D:D:D
 
During the period of Batu's life there was no Byzantine Empire. There was the Latin Empire based in Constantinople, a few Orthodox successor states, and various Catholic fiefdoms.

He could quite possibly have taken Constantinople from the Latins, but it wouldn't be the city it had been a century before.
 
For some reason I don't see much of a Constantinople left for the Ottomans to capture:D:D:D:D:D

OTOH, Constantinople (or the remnants of it) would be much more easier for the Ottomans to capture ITTL. ;) Considering that Ottoman was a Balkan Power before Constantinople was captured in 1453.
 
OTOH, Constantinople (or the remnants of it) would be much more easier for the Ottomans to capture ITTL. ;) Considering that Ottoman was a Balkan Power before Constantinople was captured in 1453.

I meant that there won't be much of a Constantinople for the Ottamans to capture, because it would be a pile of rubble along with the Hagia Sophia:)
 
What if Batu Khan invaded the Byzantine Empire after taking on Russia, instead of pushing into Hungary and Austria as in OTL? Why did they leave Constantinople alone anyways?

Simple: the first reason was politics; the Hungarian king Bela IV had allowed Cuman refugees to settle in his lands, with which he incurred the wrath of the Mongols, because the Mongols had defeated the Cumans, and they regarded Bela's cooperation with the Cumans as an act of defiance.

Besides, the Hungarian kingdom was situated in the Panonnian Plain - a huge plain that mainly consists of grasslands - and the Mongols were looking for new pastures to conquer, so the Mongols would have been attracted to Hungary anyway.

The second reason is the opportunism that was so typical for the Mongols; it was much easier for them to loot the Hungarian and Bulgarian lands and cities, and Constantinople had lost much of its wealth and glory due to the Fourth Crusade.

And both Hungary and Bulgaria were simply closer to the Batu's territories than Constantinople.

The third reason; even tough Constantinople lost a good bit of it's wealth, its formidable defenses were still largely intact.

And what's more; Constantinople was surrounded on three sides by water, which makes it impossible to lay siege to the city and attempt to starve it into submission as long as you don't have naval supremacy as well - and to put it simple: the Mongols sucked at naval warfare, and none of the western Khanates had a fleet.

The Mongols had a habit of avoiding enemies that they felt were either too tough or powerful, or just not worth the effort of conquering - and I'm pretty sure that this is why they pretty much ignored Constantinople in OTL.

...and the fourth reason is that the Byzantines understood fully well what kind of a (potential) threat the Mongols were, and the Byzantines did pretty much anything to avoid any confrontation with the Mongols.

What if the Mongols sized Constantinople and made it a Khanate centuries before the Ottomans captured it?

For some reason I don't see much of a Constantinople left for the Ottomans to capture:D:D:D:D:D

OTOH, Constantinople (or the remnants of it) would be much more easier for the Ottomans to capture ITTL. Considering that Ottoman was a Balkan Power before Constantinople was captured in 1453.

If the Mongols capture Constantinople, I'm pretty sure that the Ottomans will be butterflied away alltogether - the emergence and rise of the Ottomans (along with the other independant Anatolian Turkish principalities, for that matter) happened because of a very specific set of circumstances.

The early Ottoman state emerged when there was basically a power vacuum in Anatolia; the Mongol Ik-Khanate had lost much of its power in Anatolia as a result of continueous conflicts with both the Mamluks and the Golden Horde, and the Byzantine Empire was suffering from one of the worst cases of mismanagement in history thanks to emperor Andronicus II, who was coincidentally also one of the longest ruling Byzantine emperors (he ruled from 1272 to 1328).

If the Mongols under Batu capture Constantinople, and actually make a serious attempt to conquer the region, then this will drastically influence the political situation in both Eastern Europe, as well as the Middle East.

First of all, if Batu and his successors focus on conquering the Balkans, then this will mean that the political centre of gravity of the Golden Horde will move westwards - the Mongol leadership will most propably end up settling (at least temporarily) in the Panonnian Plain (which would be an excellent base of operations for the Mongols), from which they would organize raids and campaigns in both the Balkans as well as Central Europe.

This is an important difference with OTL, because IOTL, the Golden Horde began to focus on the Il-Khanate when Berke Khan rose to power.

The Golden Horde already had a border conflict with the Il-Khanate over the Caucasus and what's now Iranian Azerbaijan (Batu and his successors claimed that this region was allotted to them when Genghis Khan's empire was divided, but Hulegu Khan claimed this region as well), but Berke Khan went even further; he declared war againest the Il-Khanate, and even allied himself with the Mamluks of Egypt againest the Il-Khanate.

If the Golden Horde becomes focused on conquering the Balkans (and I'm fairly sure that they wouldn't attempt to take Constantinople unless they were already bent on conquering the Balkans), then it is quite possible that the border conflict with the Il-Khanate will become less important, and if Berke Khan is butterflied away, then there most propably won't be a war between the Golden Horde and the Il-Khanate.

And this leaves the Il-Khanate free to take on the Mamluks.

As a result, the Il-Khanate isn't weakened by war on two fronts againest the Golden Horde and the Mamluks, and thus manages to remain stronger in Anatolia.

And Nicaea, which most propably remains confined to western Anatolia due to the strong Mongol presence in the Balkans ITTL, will remain stronger too, as IOTL, Nicaea's wealth and resources were largely drained by rebuilding Constantinople and wars againest the Serbs and Bulgarians.

...and if the Il-Khanate remains strong in Anatolia (ergo; brutally destroys every uppity Turkish principality and/or warlord that refuses to submit), and Nicaea remains strong and stable as well (instead of being plagued by overtaxation, mismanagement and a lack of a proper army to protect the place), then the power vacuum and other conditions that allowed the early Ottoman state to emerge simply won't exist.

..
As for what would happen in general if the Mongols captured Constantinople; like I pointed out earlier, a Mongol conquest of Constantinople is only likely if Batu and his successors keep focusing on Eastern Europe in general and the Balkans in particular.

Therefore, a Mongol Constantinople would also mean a much stronger Mongol presence in Europe, with the westernmost centre of power (of the Golden Horde) being somewhere in the Panonnian Plain.

Constantinople would still remain a relatively important city, but it would not be a capital of anything more than a province until the Golden Horde falls apart, and some local dynasty manages to take control of Constantinople and build a new state from there.

But until then, the more interesting events in Eastern Europe will take place in whatever city in the Panonnian Plain the Mongols make their capital - once the area starts to recover from the conquest, that capital will start attracting merciants, artists, craftsmen and scholars from not just Eastern Europe, but Central Asia and the Far East as well.

That should lead to some rather interesting cultural cross-fertilisation...

At the court of Hulegu Khan of the Il-Khanate, Chinese astronomers were working side by side with Persian Muslim astronomers, with interesting results - something similar could easily happen in this Mongol state centered in the Panonnian Plain...
 
Thanks Ran, you gave me lots to think about.

If the Golden Horde do absorb Byzantium, and have a center of power closer to Europe than Central Asia, would it be possible they would convert to Christianity rather than Islam? There was a Khan of the Golden Horde who was a Nestorian as I recall. If so there would be the possibility of a Christian Khanate in Europe and a Muslim Khanate in Anatolia.
 
Ran Exilis,
That was an amazing analysis. I very much enjoyed it. Especially so because I recently wrote a research on the consequences of the Mongol invasions to the Middle East. I'll surely be following your posts. Cheers.
 
Ran

Very interesting. Oddly then a Mongol sacking of Constantinople could lead to the longer survival and possibly ultimately revival of a Byzantium state via Nicaea being the core power in the region presuming both Mongol powers eventually fad away.

I agree that the actual sack of the city itself would still be bloody difficult, although the Mongols had developed a fair bit of experience of siege warfare and the empire was in a bad way at the time. What I suspect would have been more difficult would have been expanding their power into Anatolia. As you say they had very little naval strength.

If the Golden Horde did follow this route under a Berke Khan who had already converted to Islam do you think they would have stayed Islamic or eventually converted to one form of Christianity or another. [Could be either Orthodox or Catholic or if they stay around long enough their effects on any reformation in Europe].

Steve
 
Thanks Ran, you gave me lots to think about.

If the Golden Horde do absorb Byzantium, and have a center of power closer to Europe than Central Asia, would it be possible they would convert to Christianity rather than Islam?

This would be quite possible - and it would even be likely that the division of the Golden Horde that is centered in southeastern Europe is Christianized sooner or later, as a good part of the local population is Christian, and the influence of the other major religions (like Islam and Buddhism) is negligible in this part of Europe.

And in OTL, it was mainly due to the rise of Berke Khan that Islam became prominent among the aristocracy of the Golden Horde - and even then, it was not until the reign of Özbeg Khan that Islam became firmly entrenched in the Golden Horde.

The nomadic population of the Golden Horde was overwhelmingly shamanistic before the reign of Özbeg, and the only significant Muslim people in the territory of the Golden Horde before the Mongol conquest were the Volga Bulgarians.

If the Golden Horde would have had several influential Christian Khans, then it is quite likely that the Golden Horde would have ended up Christian sooner or later - it really could have gone either way.

There was a Khan of the Golden Horde who was a Nestorian as I recall.

There was indeed a Christian Khan of the Golden Horde; Sartaq, the predecessor of Berke, was a Christian - allthough he seems to have been Russian Orthodox rather than Nestorian (contemporary Georgian and Armenian sources state that "he was baptized among the Russians").

If so there would be the possibility of a Christian Khanate in Europe and a Muslim Khanate in Anatolia.

That possebility exists - allthough a post-Ilkhanid Muslim state in Anatolia would propably be a breakaway Turkish state rather than a Muslim Mongol Khanate.

Anyway, the political developments within the Il-Khanate are likely to become rather complex, and the Il-Khanate may not become Islamized like in OTL, and it will certainly be more stable and successful than in OTL, but it is still quite likely that it will eventually fall apart sooner or later.

There were great ethnic, religious and political differences within the Il-Khanate, and there was no religion and barely an ideology that united the Khanate's ruling elite - basically it was just held together by the central administration and the militairy power of the Mongols.

Without the demoralizing struggle againest the Mamluks and the Golden Horde, the morale of the Ilkhanid rulers and soldiers will remain stronger, and if the Il-Khanate doesn't suffer a defeat that it fails to avenge, the Mongols would largely retain their reputation of invincibility (at least for the time being).

And as the position of the non-Muslim Ilkhans will remain a bit stronger ITTL, the Il-Khanate will propably remain under non-Muslim Khans for longer, which means that the tensions between the Muslim population and the non-Muslim rulers will remain.

A strong Il-Khan will be able to keep his Muslim subjects under control, but if a weak Il-Khan rises to power or if civil war breaks out between various pretenders to the throne, then there is a good chance that certain parts (especially predominately Muslim parts) of the Il-Khanate will face revolts, and may even break away.

In parts of Persia and the Khoresan, there were Mongol clans that had been Islamized at a fairly early point due to influence from the locals and intermarriage with the local aristocracy - and in case of a (very) weak Ilkhan or civil war, it is quite possible that a charismatic Mongol Muslim warlord gains great support among the Muslim population, and manages to carve out his own state in Persia, or perhaps southern Iraq or Anatolia.

And if that would happen during a civil war within the Il-Khanate, then this could set off a chain of events that could lead to the partial or complete fragmentation of the Il-Khanate.

In that scenario, vassals like the Rum Sultanate, Georgia, and the Crusader states could very well drift into independance, while the Il-Khanate either survives as a rump state; or remains around as a shadow of its former glory, ruled by puppet khans while the real power is in the hands of various powerful clans; or collapses alltogether.

In the event of such a collapse of the Il-Khanate, there is a chance that the Rum Sultanate gets a decent sultan, or perhaps a local Mongol governor or warlord claims the throne of the Rum sultanate and actually does a proper job at restoring this old sultanate as an independant and fairly powerful state.

Or alternatively, the Rum Sultanate could be replaced by various Turkish principalities that are taking advantage of the collapse of the Il-Khanate.
 
Ran

Very interesting. Oddly then a Mongol sacking of Constantinople could lead to the longer survival and possibly ultimately revival of a Byzantium state via Nicaea being the core power in the region presuming both Mongol powers eventually fad away.

I agree that the actual sack of the city itself would still be bloody difficult, although the Mongols had developed a fair bit of experience of siege warfare and the empire was in a bad way at the time.

This is true - and a Mongol conquest of Constantinople is definitely not impossible at this point.

And Constantinople is also still in the hands of the Latins at this point, which certainly makes the conquest of the city a lot easier - with a bit of luck, the Greeks of Constantinople may even prefer the religiously tolerant Mongols over the oppressive Latins.

But OTOH, if the Latin emperor of Constantinople is smart enough not to defy the Mongols, and accepts a status of vassalage, then Latin Constantinople could actually survive for quite a while as a Mongol vassal.

What I suspect would have been more difficult would have been expanding their power into Anatolia. As you say they had very little naval strength.

Indeed.

And if the Golden Horde focuses on conquering the Balkans and Central Europe, then I don't think that they'll attempt to invade Anatolia - aside from the fact that they'd have to build a fleet from scratch for this, any attempts to conquer parts of Anatolia could also lead to a conflict with the Il-Khanate, which effectively controls Anatolia.

What's more; a Golden Horde that's centered in the Panonnian Plain would propably prefer raiding/conquering the far more accessible German and Polish territories. Nicaea may be far more wealthy, but it may not be worth the trouble.

Most propably, Nicaea would end up as some kind of buffer state between the Golden Horde on the Balkans and the Il-Khanate in Anatolia.

If the Golden Horde did follow this route under a Berke Khan who had already converted to Islam do you think they would have stayed Islamic or eventually converted to one form of Christianity or another. [Could be either Orthodox or Catholic or if they stay around long enough their effects on any reformation in Europe].

Well, regarding the fact that the OTL successor of Berke Khan was a shamanist, that's definitely possible.

And it was not until the reign of Özbeg Khan that Islam became firmly entrenched in the Golden Horde, so there is still a possebility that Islam doesn't become the dominant religion in the Golden Horde (even though Islam did become quite prominent among the aristocracy of the Golden Horde due to Berke).

And if Berke would have made serious attempts to conquer the Balkans and other parts of Europe instead of going to war with the Il-Khanate, and the Panonnian Plain becomes the political centre of the Golden Horde, then at least this western division of the Golden Horde would, in all likelihood, sooner or later end up as a Christian state.

It is possible that a Golden Horde that's politically centered in an overwhelmingly Christian part of Europe is ruled by Muslim Khans for a few decades, but those Muslim Khans will most propably face the same problems as the Buddhist Khans of the Il-Khanate; especially if they start promoting their faith among the local population (which most Muslim Mongol Khans would undoubtly do), then this will lead to a few converts and great resistance and hostility from the general population towards the Khans.

And as I mentioned before; even though Islam became quite prominent among the aristocracy of the Golden Horde thanks to Berke, a good part of the Golden Horde's aristocracy still remained shamanist.

Therefore, there is a good chance that an impopular Muslim khan is succeeded by either a shamanist who seeks to appease his Christian subjects, or even a Christian Mongol who has a lot support among his Christian subjects.

The Mongol aristocrats also often intermarried with the local aristocracy, and in a Golden Horde Khanate that's centered in Europe, this means that there will eventually be quite a few Mongol nobles with European wives and mothers - and Mongol nobles were often influenced by the religion of the foreign princesses with whom they intermarried; Hulegu Khan was under strong Christian influence due to his Christian wife and mother, and Berke Khan's conversion was propably a result from the influence of his mother, who was a Muslim princess from Khwarezm.

...and with a large part of the Mongol nobility being either Christian or under (strong) Christian influence, it is unlikely that a lineage of Muslim Khans would last very long in this ATL Golden Horde Khanate.
 
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