WI: Mongols had besieged Vienna?

[The_Persian_Cat]

Hello all,

During the reign of Odogei Khan, Mongol forces led by Batu Khan and Subutai won a great victory at the Battle of Mohi in 1241, and Hungary and Croatia were subjugated. Mongol forces began moving into Austria. Wiener Neustadt, located just south of Vienna, was raided in 1241. After being repulsed by Austrian and allied forces, the Mongols retired back into Russia after learning of the death of Odogei Khan.

What if the Mongols, under Odogei Khan or Batu Khan, had continued to invade Austria? How likely would it be for Vienna to be captured? How likely would it be for Austria to be subjugated? How likely would it be for Hungary and Croatia to remain subjects of Batu Khan? What would the wider consequences of this had been?

 

[Marc]

Hello all,

After subjugating Hungary and Croatia, Mongol forces began moving into Austria. Wiener Neustadt, located just south of Vienna, was raided in 1241; however, the Mongols were fought off by Duke Frederick II of Austria and Styria at the Battle of Mohi. After being repulsed by Austrian and allied forces, the Mongols retired back into Russia after learning of the death of Odogei Khan.

What if the Mongols, under Odogei Khan or Batu Khan, had continued to invade Austria? How likely would it be for Vienna to be captured? How likely would it be for Austria to be subjugated? How likely would it be for Hungary and Croatia to remain subjects of Batu Khan? What would the wider consequences of this had been?

If circumstance were different, The Mongols could have easily rolled up Eastern and Southern Europe - including what was then the Duchy of Austria.
They were the Wehrmacht of their time; simple as that.

 

[The_Persian_Cat]

If circumstance were different, The Mongols could have easily rolled up Eastern and Southern Europe - including what was then the Duchy of Austria.
They were the Wehrmacht of their time; simple as that.

Eh. I don't know about that. Hungary didn't remain a Mongol client state for too long, especially relative to places like Muscovy. After the death of Odogei, the Mongols retreated east of Moldova

 

[wcv215]

They were the Wehrmacht of their time; simple as that.

That seems like an overly harsh condemnation of the Mongols’ strategic capabilities.

 

[alexmilman]

Hello all,

After subjugating Hungary and Croatia, Mongol forces began moving into Austria. Wiener Neustadt, located just south of Vienna, was raided in 1241; however, the Mongols were fought off by Duke Frederick II of Austria and Styria at the Battle of Mohi. After being repulsed by Austrian and allied forces, the Mongols retired back into Russia after learning of the death of Odogei Khan.

What if the Mongols, under Odogei Khan or Batu Khan, had continued to invade Austria? How likely would it be for Vienna to be captured? How likely would it be for Austria to be subjugated? How likely would it be for Hungary and Croatia to remain subjects of Batu Khan? What would the wider consequences of this had been?

Assumption that Frederic II won battle of Mochi and that after this the Mongols left Hungary probably requires DBWI BTW, Ogdai was in Mongolia and could not led invasion of Austria but as for the rest, technically, capturing Vienna would not be such a big th8ng for the Mongols taking into an account efficiency of their siegecraft.

Now, as for the rest, the whole Western Campaign was a big scale raid, not a campaign of conquest: Genghis’ testament required advance to the “last Western Sea” so that sea had to be reached (and Adriatic Sea was just fine). Notwithstanding the standard demands to recognize supremacy of the Great Khan, the pattern was different from the previous and future campaigns of conquest: the Mongols had been riding forward avoiding the prolonged sieges (compare this to China, CA, Rus, Middle East) and emphasizing synchronization of advance on a wide front.

As for Batu as a future ruler, this is highly unlikely because domain Jochi was ending on the Kipchak-occupied areas (Rus got under umbrella of “protecting Kipchaks”). There is no guarantee whatsoever that Batu would be left as a ruler of all “Western” territories if conquest extended beyond the OTL limits. Not that such an extent would be practical. Even semi-independent domain of Nogai (Batu nephew) proved to be unsustainable during his lifetime.

 

[alexmilman]

Eh. I don't know about that. Hungary didn't remain a Mongol client state for too long, especially relative to places like Muscovy. After the death of Odogei, the Mongols retreated east of Moldova

The Ogdai was the main, and probably the only factor which was forcing continuation of the Western Campaign. Putting looting factor aside, there was no clear interest among the participating princes:

Batu did not have a reason to expect that the Western lands would end up as his domain and did not have resources needed to control all these territories (process of settling his new state with the center on Low Volga took until the rest of his life and controlling the princedoms of Rus was a full scale occupation). While some other Mongolian prince(s) may expect to get some of the lands, most of them were not well suited for the nomadic life style (Nogai got one of few good pieces) and would be cut off the main Mongolian territories by the Blue and White Hordes of the Jochides. In other words not a very appealing acquisition. Guyuk (and his supporters) were not interested at all because Guyuk wanted to be the Great Khan.

Subotai was implementing Great Khan’s orders but he was a subordinate figure and political decisions were not his to make.

So Ogdai’s death came quite handy even if the excuse was a complete BS: his widow ruled the empire as a regent in 1241 - 46 without any serious challenges (except for an alleged plot of Timuge Ot higin) so there obviously was no pressing need to drop everything and ride back to Mongolia for Khan’s selection (Batu did not come at all).

As a little bit of nitpicking, “Muscovy” within context of the XIII is anachronism: Moscow was capital of insignificant princedoms, the #1was Great Princedom of Vladimir.

 

[The_Persian_Cat]

Assumption that Frederic II won battle of Mochi and that after this the Mongols left Hungary probably requires DBWI

Ohhhh hell. Sorry, I think I misread my source. I thought Mochi was a decisive victory for the Austrians, not for the Mongols. My mistake. Thanks for pointing this out fixed, hopefully

 

[The_Persian_Cat]

The Ogdai was the main, and probably the only factor which was forcing continuation of the Western Campaign. Putting looting factor aside, there was no clear interest among the participating princes:

Subotai was implementing Great Khan’s orders but he was a subordinate figure and political decisions were not his to make.

Mightn't Subutai desire a realm of his own? He was one of Genghis Khan's most famed commanders, so I'm sure he could raise a horde loyal to himself. I know the Mongol Civil War and the fragmentation of the Mongol Empire wouldn't happen for another couple of decades, but is it impossible that Subutai (or someone else, if not him) would desire Hungary as his own domain?

 

[alexmilman]

Mightn't Subutai desire a realm of his own? He was one of Genghis Khan's most famed commanders, so I'm sure he could raise a horde loyal to himself. I know the Mongol Civil War and the fragmentation of the Mongol Empire wouldn't happen for another couple of decades, but is it impossible that Subutai (or someone else, if not him) would desire Hungary as his own domain?

Subutai could not become an independent ruler (neither could at that time any Genghizid) or even to get ulus of his own because this right was reserved for the Genghizides. The closest thing to such a status was position of go-van (viceroy of China) hold by Muqali. But until his death he was considered the #1 Mongolian general and had close personal relations to Genghis (before campaign in China he was commander of one of 4 initial bands of his personal Guards). Subotai never was that close to any of the Great Khans.

Subotai or any other general of that period could not raise a personal army, not to mention getting his own Horde (state) pretty much by definition: the troops were not his and an attempt to carve his own territory would mean an open revolt against authority of the Great Khan, which is rather difficult to expect from a person known for his absolute loyalty to the Great Khan(s).

Then of course let’s not to confuse two different things: Subotai was a great general (both on tactical and strategic level) but there are no indications that he was any kind of administrator, politician or organizer like Muqali was. We know that Subotai was winning the battles and campaigns but we also know that Muqali was administering conquered territories of China quite well and managed to increase size of his initial army by extensive recruiting on the conquered territories (he started with approximately 20,000 Mongols and ended raising more than 6 tumen composed of the Kidans and Jurchens). He also extensively used the local administration and, in general, tried to make the Mongolian rule to look reasonably attractive to minimize the resistance.

OTOH, Subotai seemingly did not have interest to these diplomatic subtleties or anything but a war. During campaigning in Europe the diplomacy, administration and “nation building” were Batu’s domain: he was much more ruler than a general and his Guyuk even openly accused him of a cowardice (to which his father strongly reprimanded him saying that loyalty of the people is not won by a personal fierceness).

 

[TyranicusMaximus]

Eh, I mean it's plausible enough, less likely things have happened. If you make plausible reasons in a timeline I don't think I would object.

With all that in mind, he needs to play the political game and that buys Hungary precious time to rebuild and if he doesn't have the full resources other Mongol leaders do. Even if he does take Hungary as a power base he's immensely vulnerable.

Going back to the original premise I just don't think Vienna is important enough that its capture vastly improves the Mongol position over what it already was.

 

[Marc]

That seems like an overly harsh condemnation of the Mongols’ strategic capabilities.

Well, my original thought was to use a phrase that involves a goose...

One thing that I may not have made clear enough though was my prefacing words of about under different circumstances.
There are multiple reasons for how this tranche of history turned out the way it did - I was just suggesting that if the Mongols were determined to conquer a much larger amount of Europe than they did, it is hard to see them being unsuccessful. In this I would be assuming that they would be willing to bring to bear their full talents and capabilities. And those were quite awesome.

 

[wcv215]

Well, my original thought was to use a phrase that involves a goose...

I was taking a jab at the Wehrmacht, not the Mongols.

 

[alexmilman]

Well, my original thought was to use a phrase that involves a goose...

One thing that I may not have made clear enough though was my prefacing words of about under different circumstances.
There are multiple reasons for how this tranche of history turned out the way it did - I was just suggesting that if the Mongols were determined to conquer a much larger amount of Europe than they did, it is hard to see them being unsuccessful. In this I would be assuming that they would be willing to bring to bear their full talents and capabilities. And those were quite awesome.

Let’s put it this way: they could successfully march through a bigger part of Europe defeating the opposing armies and looting a territory. However, a lasting conquest is unlikely unless the whole pattern of their campaigns changes: it would need a greater permanent allocation of the troops on the Western direction and there still would be limits for control because Hungarian plain can be at best a forward base and serious power projection beyond Hungary-Poland-Balkans may be problematic. In OTL Batu was left with 4,000 Mongols to control huge domain he created so he needed to build a brand new nation, the Tatars.

 

[Marc]

Let’s put it this way: they could successfully march through a bigger part of Europe defeating the opposing armies and looting a territory. However, a lasting conquest is unlikely unless the whole pattern of their campaigns changes: it would need a greater permanent allocation of the troops on the Western direction and there still would be limits for control because Hungarian plain can be at best a forward base and serious power projection beyond Hungary-Poland-Balkans may be problematic. In OTL Batu was left with 4,000 Mongols to control huge domain he created so he needed to build a brand new nation, the Tatars.

I fully agree, particularly with my bold italics added on your statement.
However within that context we are talking about the effective end of medieval Eastern Europe, the probable much quicker demise of the poor Byzantines; unknown repercussions in Anatolia and Central Europe, and so on.
Whether they take Vienna or not is almost superfluous.
An amusing thought: Mongol naval power projecting into the Mediterranean a la what the Ottomans accomplished a few centuries later...

 

[alexmilman]

I fully agree, particularly with my bold italics added on your statement.
However within that context we are talking about the effective end of medieval Eastern Europe, the probable much quicker demise of the poor Byzantines; unknown repercussions in Anatolia and Central Europe, and so on.
Whether they take Vienna or not is almost superfluous.
An amusing thought: Mongol naval power projecting into the Mediterranean a la what the Ottomans accomplished a few centuries later...

Well, if we are talking about continued Western Campaign as a big-scale raid without lasting conquest, here is one of the possibilities:

Campaign happened during the fight between Frederic II and the Papacy. Frederic has to provide at least some protection to Germany but the Northern Italy is, in general, a support base for the papacy (or rather anti-imperial). Let’s assume that the Mongols, while holding the “German flank” make Italy the main target because they learned about its wealth (in OTL they reached Adriatic coast so this is not o. Ugh of a stress). Obviously, they start with the Northern Italy taking and destroying its cities, looting the countryside and doing as much damage as they can all the way to the Rome. The Pope manages to escape but the city is thoroughly destroyed. By that time it is more or less clear that Italian campaign reaches its limits because the theater is not very good and the troops are overburdened with the loot and prisoners. Plus in Hermany Frederic still assembling an army (but he is too intelligent to try a major battle and does not mind destruction of his enemies, plus the Germans are not too eager to risk their lives for the sake of the Italians, so there is an ongoing “phony war” with the small raids and skirmishes but no major operations on either side). So retreat is ordered and, because Mediterranean can be declared to be “the last Sea”, the mission is officially accomplished. Batu is moving back to his domain, Nogai is left in Rumania-Moldavia and the rest of the princes are going back to their domains.

Frederic is now a Savior of Europe (or at least Germany, somehow he missed this PR opportunity in OTL) and proceed to his main goal of showing who is the boss in Italy. Taking into an account that his enemies are almost completely destroyed (physically), the answer is clear and he is not wasting time strengthening his control over the Northern Italy and the Papal area. With some luck (no early death of his son, etc.) Hohenstauffen’s position in Italy and Germany is too strong for the challenges and the Papacy is void of the allies except France. But with the Papacy void of money and the local support and Northern Italy securely in their hands, would exptedition of Charles of Anjou be possible?

As for the Byzantines, they are doing just fine with Nogai who, as in OTL, acts as their ally and even marries emperor’s daughter: he does not have enough troops for a conquest and satisfied with being a regional powerbroker.