WI; Mongols defeat Mamluks and conquer/sack Egypt ?

After conquest of Baghdad in 1258 let's say that they successfully take all Egypt as well, what long term would that have on the wider region?

I presume another Il Khanate/Golden Horde successor type state would spring up, based in Cairo, but they would be no different than mamluk sultanate in the fact that the ruling class would be mongolian and not circassian and would have the same fate ( Ottomans ).
 
Even if the Mongols win at Ain Janut, they have a way to go before securing Syria, nevermind Egypt.

Not saying its impossible, but we're looking at another campaign at least to make this happen, rather than just a simple change to a battle.
 
Even if the Mongols win at Ain Janut, they have a way to go before securing Syria, nevermind Egypt.

Not saying its impossible, but we're looking at another campaign at least to make this happen, rather than just a simple change to a battle.
This. Ain Jalut was only lost because Hulagu wanted to be Great Khan. So have Mongke live a few years longer and the conquest will continue with a much larger force.

Since you're right that it wouldn't take just one campaign (probably two actually, if they kill Qutuz and hopefully Baybars in the battles it'll be pure chaos in Egypt) you might also want to pair this with a change to the Golden Horde. Have Berke convert, but then have his brother Tukh-Timur not convert. Then you can have a religiously inspired civil-war in the Golden Hoarde to keep them occupied and butterflys to a minimum. Instead of fighting the Ilkhans, they fight each other so their armies are still occupied--this also gives the Ilkhans a free hand to move south if they don't intervene in the civil war.

If the Mongols conquer Egypt and have vassals hold it and Antioch pays lip service to the Mongols as overlord, Byzantium is next (since I think the Anatolian Turks are already vassals at this time).
 
In effect direct rule in the long term will be impossible, but nevertheless the Mongols could still have the possibility IMO, if they managed to keep for some time the long routes from Mongolia, and control of Middle East, at least to trasform Egypt in another Islamic khanate... I guess the ABS is less weak that expected.
 
It would be interesting to see where the Mongols go after conquering Egypt. I can see a repeat of the Muslim invasion of North Africa, seeing that their isn't much in the Mongols way after taking out the Mamluks. Iffy however if they'd invade Spain, but I don't think impossible.
 
If the Ilkhanate can secure itself in Syria and Egypt they are most likely to head up with their Anatolian Turkish vassals and go after what remainds of the Byzantines given the strategic of Constantinople and the richness as opposed to the borderline desert, squabbling City-States of North Africa.
 
The Mongols wouldn't be any more likely to conquer Constantinople without cannon as the Turks were.

I think it'd be interesting, but fairly unlikely, to see the Mongols extend south along the Nile. Even if the influence is indirect, Mongol vassalage of Nubia and Abyssinia would have far-reaching affects.
 
The Mongols wouldn't be any more likely to conquer Constantinople without cannon as the Turks were.

I think it'd be interesting, but fairly unlikely, to see the Mongols extend south along the Nile. Even if the influence is indirect, Mongol vassalage of Nubia and Abyssinia would have far-reaching affects.

Also, they needed a fleet. Probably Anatolia will fallen, but in a long term it could be the salvation for Byzantine Empire...
 
Also, they needed a fleet. Probably Anatolia will fallen, but in a long term it could be the salvation for Byzantine Empire...

Maybe. I'm not sure the Roman position vs. Western threats is good enough for it not to crumble under that pressure anyway, but...

There's always hope.
 
If the Ilkhanate can secure itself in Syria and Egypt they are most likely to head up with their Anatolian Turkish vassals and go after what remainds of the Byzantines given the strategic of Constantinople and the richness as opposed to the borderline desert, squabbling City-States of North Africa.

Oh I'm sure they'd take Anatolia, but as has been pointed out they are probably unlikely to take Constantinople. Also I don't think borderline desert environments are going to phase the Mongols much. I imagine that after securing the Middle East at least a small expedition at some point would just blitzkrieg across the North African cost conquering everything in its path. I'm not sure they'd take Spain however, because just like their problem against the Byzantines, they'd need a fleet first. Maybe that comes much later. It would be fun to see a second Tours however, only stopping the Mongols instead of the Arabs at the Pyrenees. Maybe not, and instead the Mongols rampage Europe from the unsuspecting back door.
 
I always have this question in my head every time I see a Mongols thread.

Why do we assume that the Mongols have the manpower to keep going and going and going? We're quick to dismiss lots of other people from making such conquests, but with the Mongols we accept it. The Mongols weren't superhumans. They did so so much with such limited resources, but there comes a point where they simply can't keep going.
 
I always have this question in my head every time I see a Mongols thread.

Why do we assume that the Mongols have the manpower to keep going and going and going? We're quick to dismiss lots of other people from making such conquests, but with the Mongols we accept it. The Mongols weren't superhumans. They did so so much with such limited resources, but there comes a point where they simply can't keep going.

Because the fact that they hit that OTL is hard to accept.
 
I'm in the opinion that all of Anatolia would be sweeped aside by the Mongols but taking Constantinople even by the 1200s is still a very difficult feat. Anyhow, it's likely that western Anatolia becomes settled by Turkic tribes aligned with the Mongols.
 
I always have this question in my head every time I see a Mongols thread.

Why do we assume that the Mongols have the manpower to keep going and going and going? We're quick to dismiss lots of other people from making such conquests, but with the Mongols we accept it. The Mongols weren't superhumans. They did so so much with such limited resources, but there comes a point where they simply can't keep going.

I think that is an excellent point, the thing is however is that the Mongols were brilliant at gathering resources and launching long campaigns. Their mobility and mobilization was almost like a modern army being smacked down into the midst of the Middle Ages. The Mongols almost made it through Europe, and latter campaigns in Southern China, and later the Mughals in India, show that even after the had reached the limits of their initial campaigns, there close successors could continue to seize territory.

Also I think that if the Mongols sack Egypt there really isn't much stopping them in the chaotic environment in Anatolia, or the barren environment in North Africa. If you've read the posts however I think a you can see that there is so far a consensus that the Mongols would be unable to take Constantinople, and I think it is quite possible that they don't take Spain, or if they do the get no farther then the Arabs did.
 
The Mongols had trouble holding what they already had though. At some point, the forces mobilized to expand will mean the forces able to hold down what is conquered are too thinly stretched, and no conquered area particularly liked Mongol rule.
 
Your absolutely right, but conquering and holding on to are two different things. I can see the Mongols rapidly blending in to the societies around them, especially if they brake up into Khaninites, but I don't think it is that unbelievable for them to continue through North Africa if they do take Egypt. With Anatolia close to their supply lines, the stories of their recent rampages, and the fact that they'd been successfully smashing all the Middle Eastern armies they met up to that point, I don't think it is to far fetched to see them taking that either. As I pointed out, I'm a little skeptical of anything further then that, but there is a slim chance that we see a repeat of the Muslim invasions with Mongols in Spain if they sort things out in Egypt or North Africa.
 
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