WI: Mongols Conquer Japan?

What if the Mongol Invasion of Japan was victorious? How would that change Japanese culture? Would Japan become its own Khanate after the dissolution of the Mongol Empire? Would men like Oda Nobunagua and Tokugawa Ieyasu still rise to prominence without a Sengoku Jidai
 
Would Japan become its own Khanate after the dissolution of the Mongol Empire?

Nah, they'd Revolt and Gain independence fairly quickly you'd have to have some extreme POD to make a conquest slightly feasible (not that I hate that, I like fun) but I think holding onto it for any amount of time would be close to impossible.

They could probably butcher the Entire Imperial family and anyone remotely related to them which could have some interesting consequences later on. Maybe they could introduce some cultural changes by either making Japan more open to the outside world because of opening them to the vast trade within the Empire or make them even more Isolationist earlier on like the Ming due to encounters with outsiders usually being from invaders.

Would men like Oda Nobunagua and Tokugawa Ieyasu still rise to prominence without a Sengoku Jidai

Butterfly alone will mean they will not be born but men that could fill roles in an alternate Sengoku period could happen.
 
Not an expert but I'll give my two cents. Oda and Tokugawa would probably be...spirited away so to speak. Gunpowder weaponry would be introduced earlier as a result of the invasion, and I'm guessing that the position of Emperor/Empress would become puppet to the Mongols as it was so central to the Japanese social order, by which I mean they would be forced to marry a Borjigin princess,and give Japanese Princesses as concubines. Pro Mongol clans would be given greater benefits etc. Kublai wanted Japan to be tributaries which means that for a time they would be, and probobly be involved in greater trade, and less piracy. I don't believe the Mongols have the forces to garrison Japan, just force, and instill vassalage/tributary status on the Chrysanthemum throne. Japan in my opinion would thus go the way of Vietnam whom after bloodying the Mongols ultimately opted to pay tribute rather then ferment endless war. When the Ming rise or a weak Emperor takes the reigns of the Mongols then the Japanese may take the chance to shake their vassalage off. Just my thoughts.
 
What if the Mongol Invasion of Japan was victorious? How would that change Japanese culture? Would Japan become its own Khanate after the dissolution of the Mongol Empire? Would men like Oda Nobunagua and Tokugawa Ieyasu still rise to prominence without a Sengoku Jidai

I would say the Mongols would make Japan pay tribute and that it's it if they won. Japan has too many mountains to be seen as worthwhile land for another Khanate to be made. Nobunaga and Ieyasu only came to prominence because of Nobunaga managing to pull a surprise attack at Okehazama, even then both the Oda and Matsudaira(the name of Ieyasu's family before he changed it) clans did not exist. Culturally I don't see much changing unless there's a later nationalism that plays to the idea of a Mongol Yoke, that would still require the Yuan Dynasty lasting long enough.
 
Culturally you don't have the entire idea of Japan being protected against outside invasion, the "divine wind", etc. You have a period where Japan was forced to bow to China. That is quite huge--the Emperor is not an Emperor, but merely the King of Japan.
 
Nah, they'd Revolt and Gain independence fairly quickly you'd have to have some extreme POD to make a conquest slightly feasible (not that I hate that, I like fun) but I think holding onto it for any amount of time would be close to impossible.

They could probably butcher the Entire Imperial family and anyone remotely related to them which could have some interesting consequences later on. Maybe they could introduce some cultural changes by either making Japan more open to the outside world because of opening them to the vast trade within the Empire or make them even more Isolationist earlier on like the Ming due to encounters with outsiders usually being from invaders.

Butterfly alone will mean they will not be born but men that could fill roles in an alternate Sengoku period could happen.

The Japanese monarchy wasn't exactly at the height of it's power during Kublai Khan's invasion attempt due to the Kamakura Shogunate. In another lifetime, I wrote a short TL in which the first Mongol invasion attempt succeeds and ends up allying with less powerful members of the Japanese Imperial family to overthow the Kamakura Shogunate and establish a Mongol semi-autonomous vassal state connected by marriage much like the Goryeo kingdom that existed in OTL. If the Mongols succeed in taking Japan I'd wager that they'd need some kind of local support and I'd also wager that if they didn't create a khanate in Korea they wouldn't do so in Japan.

As for changes to Japanese culture. I think that for the duration of the Yuan dynasty the islands are going to be exposed to far more trade than they were in OTL. This could lead to the introduction of new crops/agricultural techniques/industries as it did in many other places that the Mongols invaded. I suspect that whatever population is lost during the invasion is going to be quickly recouped due to the increased prosperity that follows. I'd also imagine that if the Mongols establish a similar set up to Goryeo with the Japanese imperial family, the state will become much more centralized and borrow heavily from Chinese and Mongol administrative and military practices such as a centralized army and more efficient taxation. Finally, I highly doubt that the Japanese are going to keep using their traditional longbows when given the choice to switch over to more effective Mongol bows. Needless to say TTL's version of the samurai is going to be quite different from OTL's.

Fast forwarding to the end of the Yuan Dynasty, I'm not sure the centralization efforts could be completely undone. Though a shake-up of who's in power would be unavoidable, I'm not sure the entire governmental structure would revert to pre-1274 status. A good deal would depend on who exactly comprised the Japanese royal family in TTL's mid 14th century, which, being almost a century after the initial POD and due to highly altered marriages, would be entirely authorial fiat. Japan could very well take a completely opposite course to OTL.
 
The initial expeditions, even if successful, can't control the land, so by any plausible standards "conquest" is too strong of a word.

The whole point of the war was that Japan refused to be an inferior tributary rather than an equal. They would probably remain independent with little change to the ruling class excepting some marriage exchanges.

Paying tribute would end as soon as the Yuan are seen as weak.
 
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