But I can change that megalomaniac old duck that hoards gold coins to say, a poor but humble duck.
Yeah. But I could minimize the extent of their bad features and maximize the goods ones through a plausible divergent point, right?
WI: Mongolia brakes into Germany
- Thread starter JosefStalin
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But I can change that megalomaniac old duck that hoards gold coins to say, a poor but humble duck.
Yeah. But I could minimize the extent of their bad features and maximize the goods ones through a plausible divergent point, right?
Gaijin said:
Even if they resist no more than the Song (far less martially inclined than the European rulers of the time, as far as I know), how often did the Mongols have to besiege cities to take over the Song?
They seem to have had to do quite a bit of fighting to take over the Rus principalities, too. It doesn't seem that people believed that "Surrender or we kill you all" meant "we should surrender when they ride up" except from those who felt they would lose.
Yes.
A duck is never going to be a fast runner on land. That's the nature of ducks. And if it turns into a horse, it can't fly.
A pegasus is ASB.
To use a less abstract example, you'd have to massively change Mongol society to have it - for example - avoid the civil wars over succession/distribution of the empire. And doing that would itself provoke civil war, as those who aren't favored by the change would fight for their own interests, as well as have the support of traditionalists and opportunists - who may not side with that party per se, but their actions will weaken the position of the leader who is trying to change things.
And if you do make that change - say to pure primogeniture - you have them stuck with all the problems of primogeniture everyone else has. You can't have it both ways.
tenthring
Banned
What are we talking about here? A smash and grab raid into central Europe with some auxiliaries to make up for the terrain? Possible. Mongol's actually come in and start ruling Kublai Kahn style? Really unlikely.
If you talking about some POD where the Kahn doesn't die as soon and they rampage around Europe for a little while before disappearing then OK. But that's kind of like Attila. He got into France, did it really leave a lasting impression on Europe? If he had outright won the battle don't you think his inevitable death, civil war in his empire, and the cultural & geographic barriers to steppe rule in Europe would not have reared their ugly head.
If you talking about some POD where the Kahn doesn't die as soon and they rampage around Europe for a little while before disappearing then OK. But that's kind of like Attila. He got into France, did it really leave a lasting impression on Europe? If he had outright won the battle don't you think his inevitable death, civil war in his empire, and the cultural & geographic barriers to steppe rule in Europe would not have reared their ugly head.
Which brings up a point. Ogedei was fifty-five when he died OTL. Even if he drinks less, he's not going to live that much longer than OTL in all likelihood (it's not impossible, but the safe bet is closer to another five years at most than ten, let alone twenty - and Subotai, if memory serves, estimated Europe would take eighteen).
And Subotai himself only lived another seven years after Mohi. He's not sticking with this to the end either.
That man was a true genious. Tactical and strategic level. I think, he was aware, that the whole western conquest idea is too risky and simply not worth it.
The annoying amount of fortified places made a quagmire for the mongol forces, while what he did not need , was a Lechfeld of his own, too far away from his real power base.
Many people here seem to forget that the Mongols had little experience with the way Europeans make war, especially heavy cavalry and heavy crossbows. Hungary was conquered chiefly because it was in its weakest position. The king wanted to bring the nobles in line and centralize the state, which alienated them to the point that they didn't even answer the call to arms when the Mongols came. Then they slaughtered the Cuman leader, which caused the Cumans to leave Hungarian service, even though their light cavalry would have proven crucial in the coming battle. Then there's the issue of the king being not much of a general (he was a good administrator and organizer, but pretty bad when it came to strategy and tactics). When the Mongols were spotted on the other side of the river, a certain bishop, whose name eludes me rode out with a number of men from the camp, mostly knights and crossbowmen. They virtually destroyed the Mongol vanguard, who probably never faced Western heavy cavalry. He left crossbowmen to guard the river crossing (I don't remember if there was a bridge or not). He returned to camp and was shocked to see that the king did not even rouse the camp and wasn't even wearing his armor. The heavy crossbowmen in the meantime held off the Mongols, who failed to cross the river, and only managed to defeat the Hungarians when they found a crossing to the north and could surround them. The defenders expected the rest of the army to arrive, but they never came, since they weren't ready. They instead magaged to fortify the camp and wait for the Mongols, which proved to be a bad tactic in the open field. Hungarian heavy cavalry still managed to inflict heavy casualties to the enemy before they went down. This was no small feat, and we have to remember that Hungarians had less heavy knights than say, the Germans. Same thing with castles and fortresses. The Mongols may have had experience in siege tactics, yet they failed to completely subdue Hungary over the span of two years. Large rivers are also an issue. They could only cross the Danube when it froze over.
By 1280, the Hungarians built more stone castles and reformed the army to better fight the Mongols, and the second Mongol invasion of Hungary by Nogai Khan was a complete disaster.
By 1280, the Hungarians built more stone castles and reformed the army to better fight the Mongols, and the second Mongol invasion of Hungary by Nogai Khan was a complete disaster.
Let's go with Subotai's assessment that it would take 18 years to conquer Western Europe. The Mongol General Staff was fairly on point and had an excellent grasp of how conquest went.
There are a lot of things you can do in 18 years with all those men and siege engines being to used to take podunk little towns like Paris and Venice. The good loot isn't in Europe. It wouldn't be worth the money.
There are a lot of things you can do in 18 years with all those men and siege engines being to used to take podunk little towns like Paris and Venice. The good loot isn't in Europe. It wouldn't be worth the money.
You forgot to add in your story that the Mongols decimated those crossbowmen with artillery. Making a bridge on the other side was tactical move to outflank the Hungarians without sacrificing his majority of his army crossing the bridge protected by Hungarians. It is almost the same move in how Alexander solved a terrain disadvantage in the battle of the Hydaspes. It is suicide just to cross that bridge outright.
The Mongols are going to win in Europe as long as Subutai is leading. However, I agree with Elfwine, that it would take the Mongols more than 6 years to conquer the whole of Europe which is not enough time until Subutai's death.
Having less competent leader will have a different story. It is the reason why the Mongols lost in Ain Jalut since Hulagu sent someone like Kitbuqa leading that attack.
It is much like Hannibal vs Varro/Paullus- Hannibal vs Scipio, Lee vs Hooker- Lee vs Meade had different results but basically with the same nations fighting.
I reiterate again that there is no purpose after Ogedei and Subutai's death in continually attacking Europe when Southern Song was not yet completely conquered nor interior of India which is far richer than the third world Europe in this time period regardless if the Mongols are capable of doing it.
Nothing to gain, too much to lose for the Mongols going further.
(OFF: decimation is hm, highly debateable. Most likely, in the first (night) phase of the battle, they had no importance, most likely the heavy cavalry (templars among them) did the work. At dawn, first light, the crossbowmans in position could inflict heavy casualities on the crossing mongols (and, again, praise for Subotai, he accepted the high casualities to mask the flanking troops and drawaing the battle ready hungarians to the bridge) and most likely, the mongols attempted to chase the crossbowmans away, but by the terrain, the catapults/balistas whatever would be at their extreme ranges so... could have not worked real well. However, by this time, all the battle ready hungarians were at the bridge (bloodbath and all), and by late morning the flanking troops arrived (they had to build some sort of bridge and a few km of road trough the swamp) - the footsoldiers including the crossbowmans got slaughtered, some of the cavalry coud escape bact to the camp, encirclement, slaughter, etcetcetc.)
I'd take issue with the description of Paris and Venice as not worth looting. The Italian city-states were some of the wealthiest places around at this point, and would remain so for a while. As for France, the 1200's were when they really started to take off, demographically and economically. That said, getting to Paris or Venice from the Hungarian plain is a bit of a schlep.
Oh, and I'd really like some context for the 18-year assessment. I could imagine that for Germany proper, but that plus France and Italy seems optimistic, even for Subotai (who certainly isn't living that long).
Dorozhand
Banned
They're not valueless, but they really are dirty backwaters compared to the splendour that is India. If I were Subutai, I'd think my resources far better spent on the Indus and the Ganges than on some cold, wet peninsula at the end of the earth.
Oh, and Song China makes everything else look like small potatoes.
18 years is a good assessment for Europe but I suspect is not an exact one. There might be a margin of error for it +/-. It took the Mongols 23 years to conquer Jin, 44 years for the Song. Just food for thought, conquest does not mean battle/wars, Europe and/or its cities has possibility of surrendering or giving tribute or offering alliance without a fight. An example of this is how the Mongols treated the Byzantines or Goryeo Dynasty.
I agree with Dorozhand. This time, Europe is a backwater country compared to India or China.
In my opinion, all of India, China and Persia are the three most valuable possession that the Mongols could have which they probably know by this time around.
Honestly? As a battlefield tactician I'd rate Subutai even over old Chingiz himself.
Incidentally some time last year we had a very in-depth discussion where I discussed troop numbers, motivations of the people participating, and various primary sources that supported differing opinions. I was arguing that a sustained invasion of Europe was politically impossible, personally, though I'm also of the opinion that in technical terms Germany is nothing really special.
Well, that's probably the most pro-Hungarian that you can spin that account, bravo.
They bridged the river and their casualties were not particularly heavy judging by how many tumen were employed in the following years' campaigns. They had no high-ranking casualties unlike in say Russia. They also slaughtered their own allied infantry shortly prior to that because they were unreliable which explains a lot about not being willing to storm the remaining castles but rather settling for pillaging all the cities.
EDIT 2: Incidentally, someone mentioned Olomouc as a European victory. It's not. It's made up. It's not a maybe historical event that's been exaggerated like say Battle on the Neva, it's simply unlikely to the point of being impossible given the known movements of the Mongol corps at the time.
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scholar
Banned
Well fortified for their area, not in a global context. I'd like to see some facts and figures about the typical castle in Europe at the time so we can do a side by side comparison.
I think so. It's been a while since I've seen that - the Mongols probably didn't intend to take Scandinavia (the peninsula, not Denmark), would be my guess.
But France, Germany, Italy, Spain? Yes.