WI: Mongol invasion of Japan successful

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Deleted member 67076

Alright, what if Kublai's invasion of Japan was successful at landing, with little loss of troops and supplies by ocean and storm?

How much could the Mongols take? What impact would this have on the Mongol Empire and Japan?
 
Alright, what if Kublai's invasion of Japan was successful at landing, with little loss of troops and supplies by ocean and storm?

How much could the Mongols take? What impact would this have on the Mongol Empire and Japan?
The issues are basically this: The first invasion was too small in its composition of forces, and the second invasion faced an enemy that was now well-prepared.

The first may have only been a raid or an intelligence-gathering exercise. And thus it was comparatively minor affair, so the Mongol leaders don't have much motivation to draw things out. I'm not sure how far the Mongols got: I don't think they actually broke out of Daizaifu in 1274. Therefore, even if they kept fighting and won there, there's still a lot of ground to cover before the 1274 army would reach Kyoto or Kamakura, which are the two most important places in Japan. Even before they withdrew, Mongol forces had failed to score the decisive landing they needed (their conquests of Tsushima and Iki went along fine though), so maybe they'll get tired. Therefore, even if you take out the storm, I think there's the possibility that Mongol forces get overwhelmed by Japanese ones, or they are victorious and choose to leave anyways.
 

katchen

Banned
Kublai Khan (or perhaps it was Chinggis a century earlier) missed a bet when he failed to conquer Sakhalin and Ezo (Hokkaido) before attempting to conquer Japan from the north. The road to Kamakura down through Tohuku is a lot easier than up through the coast of the Inland Sea to Kyoto and then to Kamakura. And an outside attack from THAT direction is the last thing Japanese are expecting.
 
Kublai Khan (or perhaps it was Chinggis a century earlier) missed a bet when he failed to conquer Sakhalin and Ezo (Hokkaido) before attempting to conquer Japan from the north. The road to Kamakura down through Tohuku is a lot easier than up through the coast of the Inland Sea to Kyoto and then to Kamakura. And an outside attack from THAT direction is the last thing Japanese are expecting.

Chinggis had more important fish to fry, even if he wanted to do such a thing, which he didn't. It was the Yuan that conquered Sakhalin (which seemed a relatively minor sideshow.---the islanders being tributaries to the Yuan until its end. I think it would have been difficult to the point of impossibility for Kublai to mobilize a fleet that far North for a campaign intending to subjugate Japan. OTL the Yuan invasion fleets used Chinese (a lot of that Southern in the larger 2nd invasion) and Korean shipping --- a long way away from Ezo and Sakhalin. The logistics of such a route would be appallingly difficult, I would think.
 
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