WI: Mongol Forces Destroyed before Chinese Conquest

"Li Ying wanted to ambush them [Mongols] on the way [back from China] with his forces (which had grown to several tens of thousands)."

"When the Mongol army besieged Zhongdu (Beijing) in 1213, Li Ying, Li Xiong and a few other Jin generals assembled a militia of more than 10,000 men who inflicted several defeats on the Mongols."

What would happen to the Mongols? If they aren't that affected, what would happen to the Jin? The Song?
 
I don't know what'll happen to China but I can say the Islamic world would stronger and Europe weaker than otl
 
I don't know what'll happen to China but I can say the Islamic world would stronger and Europe weaker than otl

Not entirely, the Islamic world would have continued on fighting with itself, between a variety of nations. A weaker Europe well, Hungary and Poland aren't ravaged, The Kievan Rus would still exist as a series of states whether or not they could ever unify is another thing entirely. As for China well could the Song ever have a chance of reuniting Chia from the Jin and Xia Xia?
 
The Song weren't going to reunite China without technology, and even that's iffy, given how pacifistic they were.

As for Byzantium, I'm guessing they've lost that brief moment of breathing space? And I've heard that Kyiv was already on the decline.

How long until the plague arrives in Europe?
 

B-29_Bomber

Banned
The Song weren't going to reunite China without technology, and even that's iffy, given how pacifistic they were.

As for Byzantium, I'm guessing they've lost that brief moment of breathing space? And I've heard that Kyiv was already on the decline.

How long until the plague arrives in Europe?

It might well be butterflied, or at least I'd be convinced if anyone argued in favor of it.
 
The Song weren't going to reunite China without technology, and even that's iffy, given how pacifistic they were.

Are we talking about the same Song here? The ones who fought the Mongols to a standstill at the height of their power?

Iron Chancellor said:
As for Byzantium, I'm guessing they've lost that brief moment of breathing space? And I've heard that Kyiv was already on the decline.

Actually, this helps them. Mongols forced Turkish tribesmen into Roman territory with their invasion. Had they not come, they'd be on much better footing.
 
Are we talking about the same Song here? The ones who fought the Mongols to a standstill at the height of their power?



Actually, this helps them. Mongols forced Turkish tribesmen into Roman territory with their invasion. Had they not come, they'd be on much better footing.
Yes.The Song Dynasty was 'pacifistic' towards the dying end.I think anti-military might be a better word,since they will fight to defend themselves,but while doing so,refuses to give too much discretion to military commanders(there was just way too much meddling by civilians bureaucrats in military affairs),constantly try to neuter or kill successful military commanders and mistreat their soldiers--denoting their status as worst than peasants.
 
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"Li Ying wanted to ambush them [Mongols] on the way [back from China] with his forces (which had grown to several tens of thousands)."

"When the Mongol army besieged Zhongdu (Beijing) in 1213, Li Ying, Li Xiong and a few other Jin generals assembled a militia of more than 10,000 men who inflicted several defeats on the Mongols."

What would happen to the Mongols? If they aren't that affected, what would happen to the Jin? The Song?

All the Mongol leadership, including Genghis Khan and his children, are assumed to be killed in the raid, if that helps.

I don't think this is possible. The Mongol forces at some point split in three. Genghis and Tolui were attacking what is now Beijing. Jochi, Chagatai, and Ogedei were attacking Shanxi. Two of Genghis's brothers were in Manchuria.

This split may have occurred after the Mongols besieged Beijing, but I suspect that by the time of the events in question, the Mongol leadership was too scattered to be destroyed in one blow.

In event that all of the Mongol leadership was in one place at one time and are all killed simultaneously, I think the leadership would pass to Genghis' surviving brother who remained in the Mongol steppes.
 
Yes.The Song Dynasty was 'pacifistic' towards the dying end.I think anti-military might be a better word,since they will fight to defend themselves,but while doing so,refuses to give too much discretion to military commanders(there was just way too much meddling by civilians bureaucrats in military affairs),constantly try to neuter or kill successful military commanders and mistreat their soldiers--denoting their status as worst than peasants.

Well, they were certainly eager to go on the offensive when the Jin looked weak. Considering the Jin also had organizational difficulties, they may be able to work past these.
 
Well, they were certainly eager to go on the offensive when the Jin looked weak. Considering the Jin also had organizational difficulties, they may be able to work past these.
As I've said,it's more anti-military than pacifistic.They were crazy on civilian control of the military to the point where it's plainly excessive.They took their lessons from the Tang Dynasty way too seriously.Another thing they faced was the lack of horses.Although,from what I've read,it's more like they could have produced a lot of horses(although much inferior because they would be bred in the south) but that they chose to scrap the stud farms so that they could use the land to build farms and buildings for other purposes.Another problem was that the army officers were incompetent and super corrupt,they embezzled funds a lot.The way how the army was treated seemed to deter the brightest from joining it.Nonetheless,they did have the best military equipment of the time minus horses.
 
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"Li Ying wanted to ambush them [Mongols] on the way [back from China] with his forces (which had grown to several tens of thousands)."

"When the Mongol army besieged Zhongdu (Beijing) in 1213, Li Ying, Li Xiong and a few other Jin generals assembled a militia of more than 10,000 men who inflicted several defeats on the Mongols."

What would happen to the Mongols? If they aren't that affected, what would happen to the Jin? The Song?

I am afraid, Genghis Khan dying 14 years earlier than in OTL would butterfly away the Mongol World Empire as we know it.
He might have been remembered as one more guy, who united some wild nomad tribes for a short period of time and disturbed his neighbors.

The Mongols had had a long history of killing each other and loyalty to a khan or a bloodline had never been their characteristic feature.
Butterflying away Chengizz Khan so early is like butterflying away prophet Muhammad some 14 years earlier - the changes in mentality of their peoples wouldn't stick.

In OTL 13 years after your supposed PoD the aging Chengizz Khan leaving for his last campaign did not appoint his successor. It was his (principal) wife who came out and publicly demanded him to choose one of his sons as his successor. The point here is that she did not ask, she demanded. That was kind of breach of etiquette, but she was pretty sure that her husband might die any minute; and the moment he dies - his sons (and actually his brothers and nephews) immediately start killing each other in the most brutal way.
 
I'm guessing that the Song won't risk a military campaign after the Jin just destroyed a Mongol army. With the collapse of the Mongols, the Song tribute payments to the Jin would probably continue.

Meanwhile, the Jin is becoming an increasingly mixed Han-Jurchen government.

Back in Europe, it appears that Poland and Lithuania won't control large parts of Ukrainian or Belorussian territory, even if Kiev is on the decline.

What are the impacts if Byzantium survives?
 
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What are the impacts of .. (no Mongol conquests)?

tremendous, to say the least.
I dare say consequences would be mostly to the better side.

With one exception maybe...

If you are a Green Peace guy that might be important for you:
You see in OTL some territories were thoroughly depopulated by the Mongols. Cultivated agrarian lands became wilderness again and that saved a few species of ground squirrels from total extinction in the Central Asia for example.

No joke actually, I am dead serious - no Chengizz Khan means less species of ground squirrels nowadays :)
 
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