Thanks for the input. So, how about this outline:
1805: Friedrich Philipp Victor von Moltke moves with his family to Graz in the Austrian Empire. The family is left impoverished after the French occupation of the city in 1809. [PoD]
1812: The young Helmuth von Moltke goes to cadet school in Vienna.
1818: Moltke becomes a lieutenant in an infantry regiment.
1822: Moltke enters the Theresianum, which he finishes in 1826
1827: After leading a cadet school for one year, he is employed on the military survey in Northern Italy.
1832: Moltke is seconded for service on the general staff at Vienna, to which he was transferred in 1833 on promotion to first lieutenant
1838: He is sent as an advisor to the Ottoman empire, taking part in the war against Muhammad Ali. He goes on to publish numerous works that are well received in Vienna.
1848: He becomes Chief of the Staff of the Army Corps stationed in Veneto, while rebellion breaks out in Hungary [I'll rather not have him stationed in Hungary as he might win that war early for Austria and I want that to be OTL. Instead, he becomes very familiar with Northern Italy]
1857: Moltke becomes chief of the General Staff of the Austrian Empire and proposes reforms on the army structure an general modernization.
And now a less-detailed outline of events that follow:
1859: Second Italian War of Independence starts as Austria declares war on Sardinia-Piedmont, due to military maneuvers on the border. France joins the war on the Piedmontese side. The Austrians score a victory against the French in an initial skirmish at Montebello on the 20th of May, and advancing further north, and eventually surrounding and completely crushing the Franco-Piedmontese forces at Palestro. Napoleon, fearing involvement from German states, asks for peace. The following Peace of Milan leaves Lombardy in Austrian hands and allows for the French occupation of Nice and Savoy, which the Piedmontese are powerless to stop, completely alienating the two countries in the future. The victory causes the German states to drift towards Austria, while causing much concern in Berlin.
1864: Second Schleswig War breaks out. Moltke, commanding the Austrian forces denies the Danish retreat to the forces of Dybbol and Fredericia, leading to Denmark conceding defeat in April. The War not only demonstrated the effectiveness of the Austrian army in maneuvers, but also the effectiveness of the Mannlicher breechloading rifles. [I'm guessing Moltke would push for new rifles, if you think Mannlicher is a bad choice for manufacturer, let me know, AFAIK the Austrians could have used the Dreyse gun as well]
1866: dispute over the administration of Schleswig-Holstein leads to war between Austria and Prussia. Moltke prepared meticulously for the war, leading an extremely swift Austrian advance into Silesia, possible due to the use of railroads and modern mobilization timetables. The attack catches the Prussians off guard, who were planning on an advance into Bohemia and force the Austrians on the defensive. Fearing that the fall of Silesia would expose Berlin, the Prussian army makes quick maneuvers to counter the Austrian offensive before they reach the Oder. Moving from Krossen to the south they meet the Austrians in the Battle of Grünberg, where they are completely enveloped and destroyed in detail by the machine-like precision of the Imperial army. The remains of the army retreat over the Oder and prepare a defense at Frankfurt an der Oder, only to be swept aside my the better maneuvering Austrians, leaving Berlin wide open. The Prussian government asks for armistice as the Imperial hussars are reported near the city, tearing up railway tracks and preparing for the arrival of the main force. Peace of Prague: Prussia is forced to cede Silesia and the Rhineland, and her Allies join in a new Austria-lead Zollverein, and accept Habsburg leadership of the now strengthened German Confederation. The peace treaty sets off alarms in Paris, and riots break out in Lombardy and Savoy lead by the known Italian revolutionary, Garibaldi. The latter is put down by occupying forces from France and Austria in Savoy and Lombardy respectively. Moltke, Count Belcredi and Ferdinand von Beust present a proposal to the Emperor given the new situation in Europe.
1867: Bern Conference. Diplomats from Austria and France meet to discuss the Italian Question. In the end, a decision is made that France and Austria create a neutral Italian state centered on Milan [suggestions are welcome for a name, Piedmont-Lombardy seems the obvious option]. The Papal State remains a French puppet, while the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies goes to the Habsburg sphere of influence. Sardinia is annexed by France.
1868: The Congress of Budapest (also known as the "Ausgleich"). The Emperor abdicates the Throne of Hungary, giving it to the Hungarian ("Palatine") branch of the family, namely Joseph Karl, who ascends to the Hungarian throne as Joseph Karl I. Hungary joins the Austrian Zollverein and signs a military alliance and terms of economic cooperation, but will be governing itself separately, having their own armed forces and limited foreign policy. Russia is ceded Austrian Galicia and an agreement of cooperation is signed with various secret clauses relating to new spheres of influences in the Balkans. Croatia signs a separate treaty with the newly formed Hungarian state, retaining their self governance withing the nation with some concessions, making it a semi-federal state.
1868: The Conference of Vienna. German states with the notable exception of Prussia offer the Imperial Crown of Germany to Franz Josef in the Redoutensaal of the Hofburg. The German Empire is officially formed and nationalist fervor sweeps the country as the new flags are hoisted everywhere [flag ideas welcome, the red-black-gold is the obvious choice (the red to represent the Hansa and Northern Germany alongside the Austrian black and gold), but I frankly don't like it too much].
1869: a nationalist coup dethrones the Hohenzollerns in Prussia and the new government petitions to join the German Empire, which is accepted. The events raise alarms in both France and Britain, as tensions rise.
1875: Brussels Conference. Germany and France meet with the aim of calming tensions. The Franco-German Border agreement finalizes the borders between the two states, where France pledges to give up any claims in the Rheinland, while Germany does the same for Alsace-Lorraine. Luxemburg is allowed to join the German Empire in a plebiscite, provided their great fortresses are dismantled. Both nations pledge to uphold the neutrality of Belgium. The conference is widely considered to be the start of the Franco-German detente and economic cooperation.
Okay, so let me know what you guys think about this. From here on, my concerns are:
- The Balkans will explode and Russia will be intervening. Germany allows them to gain influence on Serbia and Bulgaria, but I might see them trying to get Greece and maybe the Danubian Principalities. The latter is a problem because it kind of blocks the Russian way into the Balkans. Would welcome any ideas for a Balkans solution. I also think that a Russia with its Western flank secure will definitely go for the Straits. Likely not during the First Balkan War when Serbia et al become independent, but once they solidified their sphere of influence on the Peninsula. Would they risk it? Would Britain go to war if they do? If yes, I think Germany could just stay neutral.
- Scramble for Africa: Germany might not be interested, as we discussed, but they actually might want to grab Tunis? Or just help Sicily to it? The other idea is Germany supporting Russia in their Balkans efforts, and placating France with Lybia and Tunis, England being allowed to annex Egypt, and maybe French control of the Levant. In turn, Russia gets the Straits (Britain can still block them in Suez and Gibraltar) and control over the Slavic states in the Balkans. Germany gets perhaps Greece?
- How much time until the German industry really kicks in?
- How big of a navy would such a Germany actually need?
- I'm also thinking that a quicker and more decisive Schleswig War might see a Scandinavian Union forming. Thoughts?