WI: Moltke, the Austrian (TL brainstorming)

Not all North German states were on the Prussian side, and seeing how the Southern states went to the Prussian camp after the war OTL, I don't see it as that much of a stretch. Austria would not annex the Rheinland, just make them independent of Prussia, possibly with a Habsburg prince on the throne. For most of these states a Zollverein lead by Prussia or Austria wouldn't make much difference.

Actually pretty much no one important was on their side...you know when you are a fan bully, people tends to dislike you.
Also, concerning the zollverein...nothing that Austria can not just inherit
 
Consider how badly Prussia beat Austria in out timeline and the reward for that was.........Austria lost Venetia (to France! / and then Italy). Other changes were annexations or changes in sphere of influence towards Prussia / NGF.

Prussia losing Silesia to Austria is already a far bigger deal. i can see some border states moving to Austrian sphere of influence but losing the Rhineland is going to be a really destabilising peace condition.
what you say is true, but the Prussian only restrained themselves because they were afraid of French intervention on behalf of Austria...time was against them and they needed peace quickly
 
It didn't beat France (and Italy doesn't exist). France chose not to progress the war (and came out with Savoy in any case)

Austria's prestige is high but France and UK will still want to keep her in check. A Prussia with some military and economic strength is preferable to a super Germany which also controls much of Italy.

Emperor means jack shit since 1806 and arguably Austria ceased to be top dog in 1848. In this TL 1866 moves her back to top dog but having a German opponent to snap at her heels is better than a collection of lapdogs (for France and Uk and possibly Russia too)

Remember in 1871 the Germans just about managed to swing the annexation of A-L and that was after the French capital had surrendered not just been threatened.
a) UK had nothing to say when Prussia created unified Germany, And to still your words it is better to have super Germany, than super Germany anyway + Austria-hungary.
Also by the 1860s it was clear that Germany would have emerged as a country,and a super country in anyway...ITTL however Russia has been satisfied and has no reason to create obstacles, France would undoubtedly prefer Austrian Germany to Prussian Germany...the truth is that habsburgs were veterans of European diplomacy and knew how to treat, while the Prussians were widely known to what they have always been: ruthless, militaristic bullies and backstabbing opportunists with the diplomatic touch of an elephant on steroids ..no offence intended
 
It didn't beat France (and Italy doesn't exist). France chose not to progress the war (and came out with Savoy in any case)

Austria's prestige is high but France and UK will still want to keep her in check. A Prussia with some military and economic strength is preferable to a super Germany which also controls much of Italy.

Emperor means jack shit since 1806 and arguably Austria ceased to be top dog in 1848. In this TL 1866 moves her back to top dog but having a German opponent to snap at her heels is better than a collection of lapdogs (for France and Uk and possibly Russia too)

Remember in 1871 the Germans just about managed to swing the annexation of A-L and that was after the French capital had surrendered not just been threatened.
B) the emperor may have been a ceremonial title, but the emperor nonetheless enjoyed massive prestige, ad is proven by the fact that most of the states allied with Austria during the war
 
Thanks for the input. So, how about this outline:

1805: Friedrich Philipp Victor von Moltke moves with his family to Graz in the Austrian Empire. The family is left impoverished after the French occupation of the city in 1809. [PoD]
1812: The young Helmuth von Moltke goes to cadet school in Vienna.
1818: Moltke becomes a lieutenant in an infantry regiment.
1822: Moltke enters the Theresianum, which he finishes in 1826
1827: After leading a cadet school for one year, he is employed on the military survey in Northern Italy.
1832: Moltke is seconded for service on the general staff at Vienna, to which he was transferred in 1833 on promotion to first lieutenant
1838: He is sent as an advisor to the Ottoman empire, taking part in the war against Muhammad Ali. He goes on to publish numerous works that are well received in Vienna.
1848: He becomes Chief of the Staff of the Army Corps stationed in Veneto, while rebellion breaks out in Hungary [I'll rather not have him stationed in Hungary as he might win that war early for Austria and I want that to be OTL. Instead, he becomes very familiar with Northern Italy]
1857: Moltke becomes chief of the General Staff of the Austrian Empire and proposes reforms on the army structure an general modernization.

And now a less-detailed outline of events that follow:
1859: Second Italian War of Independence starts as Austria declares war on Sardinia-Piedmont, due to military maneuvers on the border. France joins the war on the Piedmontese side. The Austrians score a victory against the French in an initial skirmish at Montebello on the 20th of May, and advancing further north, and eventually surrounding and completely crushing the Franco-Piedmontese forces at Palestro. Napoleon, fearing involvement from German states, asks for peace. The following Peace of Milan leaves Lombardy in Austrian hands and allows for the French occupation of Nice and Savoy, which the Piedmontese are powerless to stop, completely alienating the two countries in the future. The victory causes the German states to drift towards Austria, while causing much concern in Berlin.
1864: Second Schleswig War breaks out. Moltke, commanding the Austrian forces denies the Danish retreat to the forces of Dybbol and Fredericia, leading to Denmark conceding defeat in April. The War not only demonstrated the effectiveness of the Austrian army in maneuvers, but also the effectiveness of the Mannlicher breechloading rifles. [I'm guessing Moltke would push for new rifles, if you think Mannlicher is a bad choice for manufacturer, let me know, AFAIK the Austrians could have used the Dreyse gun as well]
1866: dispute over the administration of Schleswig-Holstein leads to war between Austria and Prussia. Moltke prepared meticulously for the war, leading an extremely swift Austrian advance into Silesia, possible due to the use of railroads and modern mobilization timetables. The attack catches the Prussians off guard, who were planning on an advance into Bohemia and force the Austrians on the defensive. Fearing that the fall of Silesia would expose Berlin, the Prussian army makes quick maneuvers to counter the Austrian offensive before they reach the Oder. Moving from Krossen to the south they meet the Austrians in the Battle of Grünberg, where they are completely enveloped and destroyed in detail by the machine-like precision of the Imperial army. The remains of the army retreat over the Oder and prepare a defense at Frankfurt an der Oder, only to be swept aside my the better maneuvering Austrians, leaving Berlin wide open. The Prussian government asks for armistice as the Imperial hussars are reported near the city, tearing up railway tracks and preparing for the arrival of the main force. Peace of Prague: Prussia is forced to cede Silesia and the Rhineland, and her Allies join in a new Austria-lead Zollverein, and accept Habsburg leadership of the now strengthened German Confederation. The peace treaty sets off alarms in Paris, and riots break out in Lombardy and Savoy lead by the known Italian revolutionary, Garibaldi. The latter is put down by occupying forces from France and Austria in Savoy and Lombardy respectively. Moltke, Count Belcredi and Ferdinand von Beust present a proposal to the Emperor given the new situation in Europe.
1867: Bern Conference. Diplomats from Austria and France meet to discuss the Italian Question. In the end, a decision is made that France and Austria create a neutral Italian state centered on Milan [suggestions are welcome for a name, Piedmont-Lombardy seems the obvious option]. The Papal State remains a French puppet, while the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies goes to the Habsburg sphere of influence. Sardinia is annexed by France.
1868: The Congress of Budapest (also known as the "Ausgleich"). The Emperor abdicates the Throne of Hungary, giving it to the Hungarian ("Palatine") branch of the family, namely Joseph Karl, who ascends to the Hungarian throne as Joseph Karl I. Hungary joins the Austrian Zollverein and signs a military alliance and terms of economic cooperation, but will be governing itself separately, having their own armed forces and limited foreign policy. Russia is ceded Austrian Galicia and an agreement of cooperation is signed with various secret clauses relating to new spheres of influences in the Balkans. Croatia signs a separate treaty with the newly formed Hungarian state, retaining their self governance withing the nation with some concessions, making it a semi-federal state.
1868: The Conference of Vienna. German states with the notable exception of Prussia offer the Imperial Crown of Germany to Franz Josef in the Redoutensaal of the Hofburg. The German Empire is officially formed and nationalist fervor sweeps the country as the new flags are hoisted everywhere [flag ideas welcome, the red-black-gold is the obvious choice (the red to represent the Hansa and Northern Germany alongside the Austrian black and gold), but I frankly don't like it too much].
1869: a nationalist coup dethrones the Hohenzollerns in Prussia and the new government petitions to join the German Empire, which is accepted. The events raise alarms in both France and Britain, as tensions rise.
1875: Brussels Conference. Germany and France meet with the aim of calming tensions. The Franco-German Border agreement finalizes the borders between the two states, where France pledges to give up any claims in the Rheinland, while Germany does the same for Alsace-Lorraine. Luxemburg is allowed to join the German Empire in a plebiscite, provided their great fortresses are dismantled. Both nations pledge to uphold the neutrality of Belgium. The conference is widely considered to be the start of the Franco-German detente and economic cooperation.

Okay, so let me know what you guys think about this. From here on, my concerns are:
- The Balkans will explode and Russia will be intervening. Germany allows them to gain influence on Serbia and Bulgaria, but I might see them trying to get Greece and maybe the Danubian Principalities. The latter is a problem because it kind of blocks the Russian way into the Balkans. Would welcome any ideas for a Balkans solution. I also think that a Russia with its Western flank secure will definitely go for the Straits. Likely not during the First Balkan War when Serbia et al become independent, but once they solidified their sphere of influence on the Peninsula. Would they risk it? Would Britain go to war if they do? If yes, I think Germany could just stay neutral.
- Scramble for Africa: Germany might not be interested, as we discussed, but they actually might want to grab Tunis? Or just help Sicily to it? The other idea is Germany supporting Russia in their Balkans efforts, and placating France with Lybia and Tunis, England being allowed to annex Egypt, and maybe French control of the Levant. In turn, Russia gets the Straits (Britain can still block them in Suez and Gibraltar) and control over the Slavic states in the Balkans. Germany gets perhaps Greece?
- How much time until the German industry really kicks in?
- How big of a navy would such a Germany actually need?
- I'm also thinking that a quicker and more decisive Schleswig War might see a Scandinavian Union forming. Thoughts?
I agree on most points...anyway I think the Russians may make a try for the straits in 1980s...up would oppose, sure...the challenge would be to appear France: UK alone can create problems but lacks the manpower to defend the Balkans and Constantinople alla alone. Also they may block the dardanelles as you say...but the gallipoli campaign of 1915 shows how dangerous it is for a large navy to operate i such shallow, narrow waters with an enemy entrenched in one side...even if you have battleships and the enemby fields a large complement of...bronze guns.
Japan may be a problem, but again even in 1940 they lacked the manpower and logistics to endanger anything farther than Manchuria
 
Ps aslo everyone here forgets that Prussia actually quit the confederation prior to declaring war
Guilty as charged, I totally forgot about this. Actually... if Austria takes Berlin, could you imagine the Rheinland simply seceding from Prussia in order to stay in the Confederation and the Zollverein? They could actually invite a Habsburg to the throne. I know this might be a bit of a stretch, but a Rheinland outside the Confederation and the Zollverein can potentially lose a lot of revenue, and the industrialist would not stand for it.
 
I agree on most points...anyway I think the Russians may make a try for the straits in 1980s...up would oppose, sure...the challenge would be to appear France: UK alone can create problems but lacks the manpower to defend the Balkans and Constantinople alla alone. Also they may block the dardanelles as you say...but the gallipoli campaign of 1915 shows how dangerous it is for a large navy to operate i such shallow, narrow waters with an enemy entrenched in one side...even if you have battleships and the enemby fields a large complement of...bronze guns.
Japan may be a problem, but again even in 1940 they lacked the manpower and logistics to endanger anything farther than Manchuria
So basically, if the Russians can take Constantinople (which they likely can, no-one can put enough manpower there to stop them, and a Crimean landing is not likely to succeed like it did before), all other fronts, like Cnetral Asia, Caucasia and the Far East are basically standstills... they just win? Would Britain concede to that or fight this war ad infinitum until either Russia collapses or the British public opinion goes against them?
 
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Guilty as charged, I totally forgot about this. Actually... if Austria takes Berlin, could you imagine the Rheinland simply seceding from Prussia in order to stay in the Confederation and the Zollverein? They could actually invite a Habsburg to the throne. I know this might be a bit of a stretch, but a Rheinland outside the Confederation and the Zollverein can potentially lose a lot of revenue, and the industrialist would not stand for it.
this or the Austrians just strip Prussia of it, me that Russia is leaning towards them
 
So basically, if the Russians can take Constantinople (which they likely can, no-one can put enough manpower there to stop them, and a Crimean landing is not likely to succeed like it did before), all other fronts, like Cnetral Asia, Caucasia and the Far East are basically standstills... they just win? Would Britain concede to that or fight this war ad infinitum until either Russia collapses or the British public opinion goes against them?
the British are smart...they would try to negotiate with the russians (and the Germans may mediate). Worst case ,they approach Greece
 
So basically, if the Russians can take Constantinople (which they likely can, no-one can put enough manpower there to stop them, and a Crimean landing is not likely to succeed like it did before), all other fronts, like Cnetral Asia, Caucasia and the Far East are basically standstills... they just win? Would Britain concede to that or fight this war ad infinitum until either Russia collapses or the British public opinion goes against them?
ps central Asia is negotiable, as otl showed.
The problem for the russians is different. OK they have the straits...ok they can put a fleet in the Mediterranean...so what? The Brits will be pissed off and put a larger one, and screw you..so basically you made a lot of mess for a matter of mere prestige; I understand things worked that way back in 19th century, but...
A nice idea would be to rediscover an old idea from late 19th century: in 1786 the Russians had this idea od dismantling the European part of the ottoman empire and replace it with a renewed Byzantine empire,under the tsarina's son (or was it the nephew?)...than the French revolution broke out...
Very stretched and would probably not work,but add a lot of flavour
 
A nice idea would be to rediscover an old idea from late 19th century: in 1786 the Russians had this idea od dismantling the European part of the ottoman empire and replace it with a renewed Byzantine empire,under the tsarina's son (or was it the nephew?)...than the French revolution broke out...
This is what I was thinking. During Cathrine the Great, the Straits might have been all important for Russia, but now the British can bottle them in the Mediterranean. I think "Byzantium" is a stretch, as the Russians saw themselves as successors of Rome, they would not have anyone else claim such a title. But they might agree to Greece having it... or even Bulgaria. By the 1880s, Greece was leaning towards Britain, IIRC, so Bulgaria might be better for the Russians.
 
This is what I was thinking. During Cathrine the Great, the Straits might have been all important for Russia, but now the British can bottle them in the Mediterranean. I think "Byzantium" is a stretch, as the Russians saw themselves as successors of Rome, they would not have anyone else claim such a title. But they might agree to Greece having it... or even Bulgaria. By the 1880s, Greece was leaning towards Britain, IIRC, so Bulgaria might be better for the Russians.
but unacceptable to Greece...and you can' make byzantium without Greece...yes, probably byzantium is a bad idea
 
but unacceptable to Greece...and you can' make byzantium without Greece...yes, probably byzantium is a bad idea
Well, it wouldn't be "Byzantium" anyway, just a Greater Greece. But Russia won't take Constantinople from the Turk only to basically hand it over to Britain. Of course, Greece might be persuaded to join the war on the Russian side if they get such promises. Sadly, I'm not that intimate with Greek and Bulgarian policies towards the Straits at that time.
 
Well, it wouldn't be "Byzantium" anyway, just a Greater Greece. But Russia won't take Constantinople from the Turk only to basically hand it over to Britain. Of course, Greece might be persuaded to join the war on the Russian side if they get such promises. Sadly, I'm not that intimate with Greek and Bulgarian policies towards the Straits at that time.
neither do I,but I doubt they had any
 
My guess is the Russians will get the straits,sooner or later...whether it will be a good thing remains to be seen
I think the Straits are a but redundant at this point, but handing them to Russia might easy tensions and make for a calmer 20th century.
- Germany is united and has no further claims, dominates Europe economically and militarily (I assume Scandinavia to orient towards them)
- France is slowly accepting their fate as a second-rate power on the continent, but is has a huge colonial empire
- Russia has a warm water port and no longer feels surrounded, can focus on domestic issues
- Britain has to accept that they failed in preventing any state achieving hegemony on the continent (they could debate that France and Russia are technically still somewhat of a counterbalance)
- USA remains in isolation, enjoying prosperity, probably getting a lot more immigrants from the Balkans and less from the rest of Europe as compared to OTL
- Ottomans are out of Europe and might be looking at outright collapse and Arab nationalism (getting influence over the new Arab states might become a flashpoint between Russia, Britain and France, but it's nowhere near the gunpowder barrel that was the Balkans OTL)
- Balkans still has some ethnic tension, but less pronounced, especially as Russia might want their own "Zollverein" in the area. With the Great Powers unwilling to upset the balance, each state will have plenty of time for assimilation policies (some more harsh than others), easing ethnic lines by the end of the century and creating more stable nation states in the region
- Japan still looks for room to expand, takes on China as it implodes
- China is unstable as OTL and faces much less divided Europeans when it comes to things such as a Boxer Rebellion
- With no devastating wars in Europe, Africa remains colonized, but would actually become more developed as simply exploiting the colonies without developing them becomes increasingly less profitable

All in all, Asia would be the main conflict zone of the 20th century, with an expansionist Japan and a China falling apart. I could see more pronounced cooperation akin to the Eight Nation Alliance in OTL. Maybe even a league of the Great Powers, somewhere between the UN Security Council and the Holy League trying to maintain the status quo. Proto-EU might be possible, if France and Germany start to actively cooperate economically, this time Russia included. Britain would look towards the Commonwealth.

Communists might pop-up here and there, but I don't see them taking power in any of the major nations absent WW-like catastrophes. Places like Turkey might see communist regimes ruling for a while, for example. China might go Communist as well.

With no world wars, European populations would be far greater, which might move to the colonies in greater numbers.
 
I think the Straits are a but redundant at this point, but handing them to Russia might easy tensions and make for a calmer 20th century.
- Germany is united and has no further claims, dominates Europe economically and militarily (I assume Scandinavia to orient towards them)
- France is slowly accepting their fate as a second-rate power on the continent, but is has a huge colonial empire
- Russia has a warm water port and no longer feels surrounded, can focus on domestic issues
- Britain has to accept that they failed in preventing any state achieving hegemony on the continent (they could debate that France and Russia are technically still somewhat of a counterbalance)
- USA remains in isolation, enjoying prosperity, probably getting a lot more immigrants from the Balkans and less from the rest of Europe as compared to OTL
- Ottomans are out of Europe and might be looking at outright collapse and Arab nationalism (getting influence over the new Arab states might become a flashpoint between Russia, Britain and France, but it's nowhere near the gunpowder barrel that was the Balkans OTL)
- Balkans still has some ethnic tension, but less pronounced, especially as Russia might want their own "Zollverein" in the area. With the Great Powers unwilling to upset the balance, each state will have plenty of time for assimilation policies (some more harsh than others), easing ethnic lines by the end of the century and creating more stable nation states in the region
- Japan still looks for room to expand, takes on China as it implodes
- China is unstable as OTL and faces much less divided Europeans when it comes to things such as a Boxer Rebellion
- With no devastating wars in Europe, Africa remains colonized, but would actually become more developed as simply exploiting the colonies without developing them becomes increasingly less profitable

All in all, Asia would be the main conflict zone of the 20th century, with an expansionist Japan and a China falling apart. I could see more pronounced cooperation akin to the Eight Nation Alliance in OTL. Maybe even a league of the Great Powers, somewhere between the UN Security Council and the Holy League trying to maintain the status quo. Proto-EU might be possible, if France and Germany start to actively cooperate economically, this time Russia included. Britain would look towards the Commonwealth.

Communists might pop-up here and there, but I don't see them taking power in any of the major nations absent WW-like catastrophes. Places like Turkey might see communist regimes ruling for a while, for example. China might go Communist as well.

With no world wars, European populations would be far greater, which might move to the colonies in greater numbers.
works like a charm...it is likely that socialists and come to forefront of European politics anyway, given time...but nothing like otl Russian revolution
 
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