WI: Moderately Successful First Empire of Mexico

So, in 1821, Mexico was an independent empire, and bordered Gran Colombia to the south. Say that in the beginning of 1822, Mexico goes to war with Colombia over Panama. What kind of butterflies could we expect from this? Would a Mexican victory here strengthen Mexico when Central America revolts? What about the Mexican-American War?
 
I think for a better chance at a surviving First Mexican Empire would be for Ferdinand to allow Mexican independence and seat a Bourbon on the throne instead of the throne being taken by a Mexican army general. This would give it legitimacy but for a couple years there would probably be a revolution/civil war between conservatives and liberals (not the American kind). A constitutional monarchy with the king having limited to basically no power would go a long way to appeasing liberals.
 
A loose, regional or confederal arrangement where the Valley of Mexico has a primus inter pares status roughly analogous to Castille's vis-a-vis other Spanish provinces would increase the Mexican Empire's odds of surviving, though not necessarily flourishing. One presumptive advantage would be developing low-tariff zones (Veracruz?), while other regions retain a stricter, quasi-merchantilist trade regime.
 
IIRC, Agustín I was quite popular with the people, as he was seen as THE real father of the Mexican independence (something that changed as time went by...), so the whole deal actually narrows down to avoiding the dissolution of the first congress (hard, but still doable; the place needed less Republican fanboys and Agustín being more level-headed on his policies), and then having his eldest son getting hitched by an European princess to give them some sort of legitimacy to their descendants.
 
IIRC, Agustín I was quite popular with the people, as he was seen as THE real father of the Mexican independence (something that changed as time went by...), so the whole deal actually narrows down to avoiding the dissolution of the first congress (hard, but still doable; the place needed less Republican fanboys and Agustín being more level-headed on his policies), and then having his eldest son getting hitched by an European princess to give them some sort of legitimacy to their descendants.

That sounds like it would be a rather interesting timeline.
 
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