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What if Moammar Qadhafi dies in late 2009?
Does his son take over and launch reforms that forestall the Libyan uprising of 2011?
Would a lack of a Libyan uprising in 2011 result in any or all of the following knock-ons:
a) No sustained Syrian uprising
b) No overthrow of Saleh in Yemen
c) An electoral college victory by Hillary Clinton in 2016.
- Given this is a year before the Tunisian protests that ousted Ben Ali, would a prior political change in Libya butterfly away the Tunisian uprising and entire "Arab Spring"?