WI Moammar Qadhafi dies in October 2009

raharris1973

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What if Moammar Qadhafi dies in late 2009?

Does his son take over and launch reforms that forestall the Libyan uprising of 2011?

Would a lack of a Libyan uprising in 2011 result in any or all of the following knock-ons:

a) No sustained Syrian uprising

b) No overthrow of Saleh in Yemen

c) An electoral college victory by Hillary Clinton in 2016.


- Given this is a year before the Tunisian protests that ousted Ben Ali, would a prior political change in Libya butterfly away the Tunisian uprising and entire "Arab Spring"?
 
No. Arab Spring was inevitable for reasons that had nothing to do with Gaddafi, and I don't think any of his descendants were in a position to institute the kind of reforms needed within two years. The rot by that point was just too deep and the time to fix it too short.

The only one I see as being plausible is Hillary Clinton if this somehow butterflies the Benghazi attack. Maybe that could put her over the hump, but the woman has an amazing and pronounced tendency to be her own worst enemy.
 

raharris1973

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