WI: Mitt Romney remains Governor of Massachusetts

Picture this for a second: what if Mitt Romney had remained Governor of Massachusetts and ran the state as more moderate than OTL? Instead of running for President in 2008, he decides to remain Governor and run for a second term. Could he have possibly still won the Republican nomination in 2012 and beat Obama with a successful track record as a Republican Governor in a liberal state?

Think of it like Chris Christie before the Bridgegate scandal.
 
Romney basically repudiated everything he did in Massachusetts as Governor in order to get the Republican nomination in 2012 so if he ran for reelection in 2006 he still had to be a liberal Republican to win, he went to the right as Governor around 2004 and burned his chances to win in 2006.
He didn't accomplish anything as Governor after 2004 because he was more focused on getting the Republican nomination in 2008.
 
Romney basically repudiated everything he did in Massachusetts as Governor in order to get the Republican nomination in 2012 so if he ran for reelection in 2006 he still had to be a liberal Republican to win, he went to the right as Governor around 2004 and burned his chances to win in 2006.
He didn't accomplish anything as Governor after 2004 because he was more focused on getting the Republican nomination in 2008.

His approval ratings were improving in 2006 and he was gaining on his Democratic opponents in polling before he decided not to run again. I think if he wanted a lock on re-election he'd need to either avoid or delay his turn to the right.
 
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His approval ratings were improving in 2006 and he was gaining on his Democratic opponents in polling before he decided not to run again. I think if he wanted a lock on re-election he'd need to either avoid or delay his turn to the right.

Romney had a chance to win a second gubernatorial term because at that time this was considered as something of a balancing act (wildly liberal legislature and liberal Republican Governor) and his performance during the 1st term was fitting the bill (did very little and did nor rock the boat). Voting him into a national position was a completely different issue.
 
Romney might see the Republicans choosing McCain regardless as their candidate in '08, so if he sees the writing on the wall for 2008, that may be why he says "I'll stay in Massachusetts" and looks towards 2012.

Polls had showed either a slight lead for Romney, or a slight lead for then-Democratic frontrunner Tom Reilly. Romney won the 2002 election with 49.8% of the vote, to O'Brien's 44.9%. In 2006, Christy Mihos announced that he was going to be running when Romney said he wasn't seeking a second term, so I think we can butterfly him out of the '06 race.

I think he could win a second term, but I'm not sure if he'd break 50%.
 
Do you guys think that he could attempt a slight shift right in his second, or possibly even third, term? I’m not saying a sudden shift to ultra-conservatism, but maybe becoming a moderate libertarian conservative in the guise of someone like New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu?

That way, he can build a reputation that might be appealing to mainstream conservatives.
 
Do you guys think that he could attempt a slight shift right in his second, or possibly even third, term? I’m not saying a sudden shift to ultra-conservatism, but maybe becoming a moderate libertarian conservative in the guise of someone like New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu?

That way, he can build a reputation that might be appealing to mainstream conservatives.

Might be a little to early for that, unless he had very good foresight and predicted the D shift from pro-labor to pro-megabanks and pro-Wall Street.

And even then he'd be in no position to exploit the opening. If you're angry about the ACA, Romney pioneered the idea as governor. If you feel the party sold out to corporate fat cats, the worst possible antidote is a venture capital CEO.

The POD would have to be Edwards or Gephardt winning the 2004 election. Then the Democrats are still pro-blue collar worker or at least have a counterweight to Pelosi. They also own the botched Katrina response, the Iraq meltdown, and the slowing economy. The D's are unpopular going into the 2006 midterms which scares off stronger candidates for governor and convinces Romney to run for a second term.

It's still a tough battle. The financial collapse is unlikely to be butterflied, since the causes were in place before the POD. The anti-bailout sentiment still leads to something along the lines of the Tea Party, although it won't gain as much traction without the ACA, and some of the politicians elected by the movement will be Democrats because an R president takes over in 2009. But even with a weaker or more bipartisan Tea Party, there will still be anti-establishment feeling and Mitt just screams establishment.
 
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