WI: Missouri, Kentucky, and Maryland Secede

"To lose Kentucky is nearly the same as to lose the whole game." — Lincoln

Now, losing Kentucky, Missouri, and Maryland? Unless Lincoln gets out of DC somehow, he's done.
 
"To lose Kentucky is nearly the same as to lose the whole game." — Lincoln

Now, losing Kentucky, Missouri, and Maryland? Unless Lincoln gets out of DC somehow, he's done.

He could probably escape if he runs quickly, and is escorted by Federal troops. If not, then President Hamlin decides whether to prosecute the war, or to make peace.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Buchanan's vice president was Breckinridge. If he had become president because of Buchanan's death (perhaps assassination by a radical Republican?), he could have used his power to aid secession efforts in the border states. He could have instituted martial law, not to prevent secession, but to permit it.

I doubt it. Breckinridge wasn't a secessionist himself. Had he unexpectedly been elevated to the presidency through a freak death of Buchanan, his top priority would have been to prevent bloodshed.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
How or why would any of these three states

secede?

Kentucky was majority Unionist, as shown in the 1861 state elections; so was Maryland, as was the majority of Missouri, despite Jackson's best efforts - less than 10 percent of Missouri's population were enslaved in the 1860 census, vis a vis about 20 percent of Kentucky's, while there were as many free blacks in Maryland as there wer slaves...and the Maryland legislature voted voted 53–13 against secession in 1861.

You may as well ask what the impact would be if Massachusetts, Michigan, and Maine had voted to secede.

Best,
 
Out of the three you listed, Kentucky and Missouri were probably the most likely to secede. I don't think Maryland seceding was ever a serious concern for the Union.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
There were Kentuckians and Missourians who TRIED

Out of the three you listed, Kentucky and Missouri were probably the most likely to secede. I don't think Maryland seceding was ever a serious concern for the Union.


to secede.

They lost, in both cases, largely because there were more Kentuckians and Missourians who were loyal.

Best,
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Kentucky was majority Unionist, as shown in the 1861 state elections

I agree that Kentucky was probably majority Unionist, but the 1861 elections do not provide valid evidence, since they were deliberately boycotted by the secessionists. Moreover, it's worth remembering that Virginia voted against secession at first, but that didn't stop it from becoming a fervently loyal Confederate state later on (West Virginia aside).
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Boycotting an election is

I agree that Kentucky was probably majority Unionist, but the 1861 elections do not provide valid evidence, since they were deliberately boycotted by the secessionists. Moreover, it's worth remembering that Virginia voted against secession at first, but that didn't stop it from becoming a fervently loyal Confederate state later on (West Virginia aside).


what a party or faction does when it is going to lose.

West Virginia is a pretty large "aside"...

Best,
 
Kentucky also did not vote for a native Kentuckian in the 1860 election, and Lincoln got a minute sliver of the vote. John Bell only one because he advocated the preservation of the union as well as slavery. Lexington origionally raised the Confederate Flag downtown, as well as supplying one of the most successful generals, and Confederate sympathy was only extinguished when troops raided the city. Louisville would be trickier to sway, as they were more economically tied to the north. Its often ignored that a chunk of Kentucky did succeed (and is represented by the center star on the Confederate flag) but, it was only 38 counties along the Southern Border.

They could be swayed, but the POD would have to be back sometime in 30's with Henry Clay.
 
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