WI: Missile Crisis Resolved, but Cuba keeps Nuclear Weapons

One of the more interesting prospects of CMC alternate history is avoiding war, but not successfully removing the nuclear missiles from Cuba. This is a middle ground between total Armageddon and the peace that was won in the OTL, where there is a peace but a sword is now constantly at the throat of America where one wasn't before. I do believe Kennedy thought early on he wasn't going to be able to get the missiles removed from Cuba, before being told that Khrushchev would be open to it if he could say to his people he saved Cuba and Kennedy and the US would never invade. This proved to be the case.

But what if the Cuban Missile Crisis was resolved peacefully, but the missiles remained in Cuba?
 

NothingNow

Banned
I could see it, and Castro would probably be a bit less hysterical in such a situation, but it'd dramatically reshape the cold war afterward, as the US government would be very aware of the knife to it's throat.
 
In that case, I can't see the Americans agreeing to remove the Jupiter missiles from Turkey. Doing that while there's still missiles in Cuba would give the Soviets a major diplomatic victory, as well as a slight improvement in their strategic situation.
 
In that case, I can't see the Americans agreeing to remove the Jupiter missiles from Turkey. Doing that while there's still missiles in Cuba would give the Soviets a major diplomatic victory, as well as a slight improvement in their strategic situation.

Would the Jupiters have been kept? Weren't they removed IOTL because they were considered obsolescent rather than anything related to the Cuban Missile Crisis? Or would more advanced missiles have been put in Turkey to replace them?
 
Would the Jupiters have been kept? Weren't they removed IOTL because they were considered obsolescent rather than anything related to the Cuban Missile Crisis? Or would more advanced missiles have been put in Turkey to replace them?

They were obsolete, but I imagine the US would have replaced them with more advanced MRBMs in the near future if it wasn't for the CMC.
 
That would make sense, I think the Pershing I came online in the mid-60s.

Wonder if this would create issues in the mid-60s the way placing Pershing IIs in Germany did during the '80s? Maybe one of the early missile treaties will limit MRBMs the way SALT II did IOTL.
 
Pershing didn't become operational until 1963, and didn't have nearly the same range (460 mi vs. 1500 mi), and a much smaller yield (0.4 MT vs. 1.45 MT). It's not exactly a drop-in replacement.

A ground-based version of Polaris would be the closest drop-in replacement (Jupiter was deisgned for same spec as Polaris).
 
Will this mean more Soviet support is given to Cuba?

What happens when the Soviet Union falls, would Castro demand to keep them due to fear of the Americans?
 

NothingNow

Banned
Will this mean more Soviet support is given to Cuba?
Actually, it'd probably be less, aside from resupply for things like Angola. Most of the equipment the cubans got in the early 60's was the stuff the soviets decided was just too expensive to ship back. including the Cuban IS-2s.

What happens when the Soviet Union falls, would Castro demand to keep them due to fear of the Americans?
Probably not, on practicality grounds. they'd probably decommission them and keep a few warheads or any nuclear-armed ASMs around as a reduced deterrent. They can't maintain the very expensive systems that ICBMs require, so scrapping them, or turning them into very expensive sounding rockets is probably the best option they have.
 

Cook

Banned
When Khrushchev was removed from power, the charge against him was reckless adventurism in Cuba that resulted in the missile crisis and very nearly nuclear war. If the crisis had ended with Soviet missiles still in Cuba then the Soviet nuclear deterrent would be enormously enhanced and would go a long way to overcoming America’s numerical advantage in nuclear weapons; consequently Khrushchev’s position in the Politburo would be a lot stronger.

Whether it would be enough to overcome his unpopularity following the failure of his agricultural reforms though…
 
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The Jupiter missles were already being phased out due to lack of range, being obsolete and such issues. The ones in Turkey were massively vulnerable due to being mere minutes in flight time from Soviet fighter bases when they were removed.


Imagine a settlement to the crisis in which the US must be told the location of every missle and permitted a nuclear armed sub in easy range at all times and you can see why the Jupiters in Turkey were not long for this world.
 

bguy

Donor
If the crisis had ended with Soviet missiles still in Cuba then the Soviet nuclear deterrent would be enormously enhanced and would go a long way to overcoming America’s numerical advantage in nuclear weapons; consequently Khrushchev’s position in the Politburo would be a lot stronger.

Conversely, what would such a result do to Kennedy's political position? Any resolution to the crisis which ends with nuclear missiles still in Cuba, is going to be widely seen as Kennedy knuckling under to the Soviets. Would the damage be bad enough to make him lose reelection in '64?
 
Considering Castro's behavior during the crisis you might as well ask if the Soviets would let someone whose sanity they worried about keep nuclear weapons.
 

Flubber

Banned
Considering Castro's behavior during the crisis you might as well ask if the Soviets would let someone whose sanity they worried about keep nuclear weapons.


Almost unbelievably, the Soviets came damn close to doing exactly that.

Check out this report from BBC News.

For the TL;DR crowd, Castro's hissy fit after the US-USSR agreement was reached led Khrushchev to worry that the Cubans would deliberately screw up the agreement, so Khrushchev decided a consolation prize may be in order. Khrushchev decided that because the US demands hadn't listed the 100 or more tactical nuclear weapons the USSR had also shipped to Cuba, that those weapons should be handed over to Castro as a sop to the Cuban douchebag's wounded pride.

Is it any wonder why Khrushchev was later charged with reckless adventurism?

The number two Kremlin hand sent to make Castro the tac-nuke offer, Anastas Mikoyan, happened to be sane. Despite the fact that his wife was terminally ill when he left Moscow and died during his mission, Mikoyan took one look at Castro and personally decided that Castro shouldn't be given the weapons. He then made up a story about some fictional Soviet law which prevented the transfer of the weapons, sold that story to Castro, and arranged for the weapons to be shipped back to the USSR in December of '62.
 
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