John Fredrick Parker
Donor
So this was an interesting event I never knew about. Could the former Tsar have been broken out alive, and would it have posed a serious threat to Catherine's reign?
My understanding is that Mirovich was set up as Catherine and her government wanted Ivan out of the way and if there was a foiled plot to liberate him then his death would look less like judicial murder.
But let's say that Mirovich was successful and managed to get Ivan out of prison and to a safe hideaway. The question then is what happens next. On the one hand Ivan was technically the lawful Tsar - the lawfully named successor of the previous lawful ruler, Anna Ivanovna. As such there was always going to be some support for him from those who opposed Catherine's regime. However, Ivan's mental state was so damaged through his years in captivity that he would probably not make a particularly capable ruler on his own. His best chance for success is to have a group of powerful nobles behind him spreading propaganda about his tragic plight, about Catherine's usurpation and murder of Peter III, and, if they can get him to the throne, then to allow them to make the decisions for him.
"Truthfully this wouldn't make him good puppet material. The best type of person you want as a puppet leader is someone competent but lazy and a little weak. They don't mind having no true power as long as they get the benefits and can put on a show for the general public. A monarch that can't meet with staff or give even short speeches would raise suspicion."
This is a fascinating comment. I had no idea being a puppet is a skill.