WI: Mircosoft never becomes popular
- Thread starter PatrickF
- Start date
Deleted member 9338
Another OS would have come along. It is possible for Mac OS to be targeted to education and design and Zerox or IBM for business. Could be very fragmented.
But I think there would be greater push for interoperability (or whatever you call it). I remember 10 yars or so ago a friend was extatic about some open code program he and his company were using instead of MS Office. When pressed he did admit they have troubles when sending stuff out because while they could read MS Office files reverse wasn't true.
If Microsoft doesn't have such alrge share as OTL they'd be forced to include coding that would read simialr programs otherwise nobody would use it.
It started with Gates MS Basic being more popular than Woz's Integer Basic in 1978.
Soon, Microsoft Basic was available on almost every PC.
Apple is still going to run into the mess that was the Apple III and Lisa.
Macs were not what businesses wanted in 1984, either.
That was the 3rd Strike.
The roadblock at Apple was not Bill Gates, but Steve Jobs.
In 1984, both made products that they though Businesses needed to have.
Bill Gates was closer to what Business owners were willing to budget for, and Gates was far smarter with the deals he struck with IBM and other companies to make that happen in 1981, by supplying the OS, rather than a lock in to one set of Hardware
If you take MS-DOS out of the picture(say DR doesn't do the deal) MS also had Xenix, a Unix port from AT&T in 1977 that sold more copies than any other *nix of the era. After the AT&T breakup, they sold it off to SCO, where it became SCO-Unix
Gates makes a single user Xenix port in 1981. Things track pretty close to OTL, except networking gets a lot easier for MS in a few years.
Expect Novell to get hurt, that MS has networking built into the kernel from the start
Problem with Mac-OS for schools, is that they were already heavy in Apple II, Hardware and Software, and would not have the $$ to change over in time to make that a major market for Macs.
jahenders
Banned
Yes, and many old-school apple users never quite forgave Apple for abandoning them and their hardware investments when they went to the Mac.
The success of an operating system is ultimately determined by matching the largest number of users with the largest number of third party software developers. It's Microsoft's biggest attribute and biggest liability. Creating a platform that allows large numbers of third party developers invariably undermines performance at some level. But it also allows third party developers to create some great applications.
With businesses, the situation is amplified even greater given the needs of a bank are wholly distinct from a manufacturer, from a law firm, from a hospital etc. So the operating system needs to support a wide range of distinct applications and uses. HTML and cloud computing alleviate these issues somewhat now but that wasnt the case from 1980-2000ish.
Any substitute to MS would face many of the same issues.
With businesses, the situation is amplified even greater given the needs of a bank are wholly distinct from a manufacturer, from a law firm, from a hospital etc. So the operating system needs to support a wide range of distinct applications and uses. HTML and cloud computing alleviate these issues somewhat now but that wasnt the case from 1980-2000ish.
Any substitute to MS would face many of the same issues.
I see the big 3 being MacOS, OS/2, and maybe Linux in such an environment, with OS/2 probably winning out.
Acorn might win in the UK.
I remember when Microsoft's claim to fame (in my awareness at least) was their writing a trio of trivial (pun intended) games for the BBC Micro. My favourite of these was a game called Kingdom. I was actually quite astonished to learn that a few years later they were big players and had gone on to develop what would be the world's most commercially successful OS.
So, the PoD could be that they decide that end-user games and educational tools are the big thing, rather than operating systems.
So, the PoD could be that they decide that end-user games and educational tools are the big thing, rather than operating systems.
you still have the atari ST and the Amiga around, those might have more success. also, you still have Digital Research around
they had a graphical interface OS before windows - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphical_Environment_Manager
they had a graphical interface OS before windows - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphical_Environment_Manager
I don't see OS/2 winning in that environment.
Look at IBM during that period: its main paradigm is 'mainframes for business.' They built the hardware and wrote the software with that in mind. They provided astounding levels of support[0] for both the hardware and software. Their level of documentation is still unsurpassed (IBM's probably still the second-largest publisher in the world, second only to the US Federal Government.)
They just don't have the mindset for an environment of cheap commodity hardware and software. Their follow-on to the PC/XT/AT were the PS/2 and OS/2: engineered, supported and priced almost like the mainframe hardware and software. Both of them exhibit the Second System effect[3]. I think IBM looked at the performance of the PS/2 in the market and pulled the plug.
IBM's entry into the market validated the PC as a viable concept in the business community and established a de facto standard that persists today. An interesting POD might be DRI and IBM coming to terms about CP/M-86[4] instead of MS-DOS, possibly having IBM accede to DRI's request for a royalty licensing plan.
[0] Well, astounding to those outside the mainframe biz. Multiple large[1] test and development centers around the country, multiple large support centers within the US staffed by native-English-speakers 24/7/365.
[1] Sites with a half-dozen computer rooms larger than basketball courts full of millions of dollars of equipment, all staffed and running 24/7/365.
[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month#The_second-system_effect
[4] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CP/M-86
i do know that the Atari ST did have some sophisticated software for the time
architectural design,music (due to its MIDI port it stayed a musicians choice for a long time), and desktop publishing(LaTex and Calamus).
when given more success i could imagine a further successful development of its OS.
architectural design,music (due to its MIDI port it stayed a musicians choice for a long time), and desktop publishing(LaTex and Calamus).
when given more success i could imagine a further successful development of its OS.
jahenders
Banned
In general, without DOS becoming prevalent, you probably have a longer period of (seriously) competing OS' -- CP/M, Xenix, MAC OS, Commodore, and Atari, perhaps with an earlier introduction of something like OS/2. Overall, this might extend the lifespan of Commodore and Atari, might increase the inroads of UNIX/XENIX variants into the desktop arena, and might increase MAC penetration into business sectors. Ultimately, something is going to become dominant in business/home use, perhaps some evolution of CP/M, but it might not be AS dominant as DOS and the company might not be as all-powerful as MS became.
Hopefully, whoever is calling the shots, better integrates GUIs earlier, and avoids overreach like incorporating browsers into the OS such that you can't get rid of them.
Hopefully, whoever is calling the shots, better integrates GUIs earlier, and avoids overreach like incorporating browsers into the OS such that you can't get rid of them.
Whatever OS IBM uses is going to dominate the industry. Before the 5150 PC the microcomputer world was a cottage industry populated by aficionados and enthusiasts and wild-eyed dreamers. Afterward it was divided into PCs and compatibles, and everything else. Joe Suburban might have an Apple or Amiga or something for the kids but he'd want an IBM for himself, and definitely wouldn't recommend anything else for his company ("Nobody ever got fired for recommending IBM.")
The question is whether the OS they go with is made available on anything else. The thing that made MS-DOS so universal wasn't that IBM used it as such, but that the willingness and ability of MS to sell to anyone enabled binary compatibility. There was no big reason that you couldn't reverse engineer anyone else's system the way the IBMs were, but without a common OS there was no reason to do so, your system wasn't actually going to be software compatible, true duplicate or not.
Which means that my money is on CP/M. It's pretty likely to be the system IBM ships with without Microsoft being around, but even if it isn't I'd suspect something else to be one way or another restricted to IBM. At that point CP/M is the route to binary compatibility with IBM system even if it's actually a separate purchase for actual IBM users.
Desktop Programming in the 90's and early 2000's - Microsoft lowered the barrier of entry for business into IT with "easy" languages like Visual Basic and a new concept of one framework, any language. Its main competitor, Java would later adopt this almost naturally through the community, but for people who couldn't wait ten years Microsoft brought this out early.
Web Programming Early 2000's - Without Internet Explorer, the barrier to entry is much higher for web programmers in the early 2000's. Microsoft's claim to fame in this space in the early days was to make web programming the same as desktop programming. Suffice it to say this did not catch on, and IE was considered an anathema to web designers and web developers for years. However it did allow old school C programmers to start web development without knowing anything about the web or the purpose of the web. This approach has been abandoned (you actually have to know what you are doing these days) but it basically gave computer programmers a ten year get-out-of-jail-free card with respect to the web.
Current Situation WRT Web Programming - If you are starting a web programming career, you probably want to start with the web (most new jobs are web-based) and focus on JavaScript, since it is cross platform. The problem is everyone and their mom knows JavaScript. Microsoft to the rescue. Microsoft is investing heavily in JavaScript and HTML5 based technologies, and offers a professional path that is more structured than "make a lot of websites and release a lot of open source code" (arguably you still need to do this to remain competitive but that is a different issue).
Current Situation WRT to Programming - For those who don't know the main competitor to Microsoft technologies WRT programming is Java. Without getting too geeky, Java is now like a mountain that nobody can climb without braving a thousand challenges, and once at the top you will command high salary. It didn't used to be this way; you used to be able to pickup a book on Java from the library / bookstore and be competitive in a few months. The days of that are gone for Java. But Microsoft, well they just released Windows 10 and the new concept of Universal Platform Apps that lets you port iOS and Android apps into the Windows Store. The point is, Microsoft continues to reinvent the wheel every few years creating new opportunities. But at the same time, there is a stable core business of Microsoft (Windows and Office and .NET programming).
In general, Microsoft has done much more than most people or most programmers early in their career realize when it comes to computer programming, and continues to do so. It's not that other programming languages or operating systems or productivity tools would take over. Business would see certain types of jobs and certain projects as cost-ineffective, and those jobs would just not exist. Yes, Linux and OS/2 and other operating systems might have more market share, but entire markets would simply not exist which is a bad outcome even if you are a hardcore geek and look down on all things Microsoft.
(Getting tired, anyone interested in more info can send me a PM)
Web Programming Early 2000's - Without Internet Explorer, the barrier to entry is much higher for web programmers in the early 2000's. Microsoft's claim to fame in this space in the early days was to make web programming the same as desktop programming. Suffice it to say this did not catch on, and IE was considered an anathema to web designers and web developers for years. However it did allow old school C programmers to start web development without knowing anything about the web or the purpose of the web. This approach has been abandoned (you actually have to know what you are doing these days) but it basically gave computer programmers a ten year get-out-of-jail-free card with respect to the web.
Current Situation WRT Web Programming - If you are starting a web programming career, you probably want to start with the web (most new jobs are web-based) and focus on JavaScript, since it is cross platform. The problem is everyone and their mom knows JavaScript. Microsoft to the rescue. Microsoft is investing heavily in JavaScript and HTML5 based technologies, and offers a professional path that is more structured than "make a lot of websites and release a lot of open source code" (arguably you still need to do this to remain competitive but that is a different issue).
Current Situation WRT to Programming - For those who don't know the main competitor to Microsoft technologies WRT programming is Java. Without getting too geeky, Java is now like a mountain that nobody can climb without braving a thousand challenges, and once at the top you will command high salary. It didn't used to be this way; you used to be able to pickup a book on Java from the library / bookstore and be competitive in a few months. The days of that are gone for Java. But Microsoft, well they just released Windows 10 and the new concept of Universal Platform Apps that lets you port iOS and Android apps into the Windows Store. The point is, Microsoft continues to reinvent the wheel every few years creating new opportunities. But at the same time, there is a stable core business of Microsoft (Windows and Office and .NET programming).
In general, Microsoft has done much more than most people or most programmers early in their career realize when it comes to computer programming, and continues to do so. It's not that other programming languages or operating systems or productivity tools would take over. Business would see certain types of jobs and certain projects as cost-ineffective, and those jobs would just not exist. Yes, Linux and OS/2 and other operating systems might have more market share, but entire markets would simply not exist which is a bad outcome even if you are a hardcore geek and look down on all things Microsoft.
(Getting tired, anyone interested in more info can send me a PM)
Without Bill's specific personality and specific interests, I don't know if global health would be as widely discussed.
And these aren't easy issues. For example, one person gave a TED talk on malaria and included the observation, well, would you want to sleep under a mosquito net on a hot night and take away what little breeze there was, all for a disease which is usually pretty minor? And what if some health educators came from China and tried to convince Americans to wear face masks, only during flu season and only when out in public, well, how successful do you think they'd be?
And these aren't easy issues. For example, one person gave a TED talk on malaria and included the observation, well, would you want to sleep under a mosquito net on a hot night and take away what little breeze there was, all for a disease which is usually pretty minor? And what if some health educators came from China and tried to convince Americans to wear face masks, only during flu season and only when out in public, well, how successful do you think they'd be?
Devvy
Donor
Plenty of potential here; I've been gently researching it with a view to my own TL as well.
One potential might be the AIM alliance being more successful (Apple-IBM-Motorola). It was formed in 1991. Here we say that negotiations become more successful, and the negotiations around the reference platform are successful; a parallel port is ditched and a Firewire port included instead for external connectivity, but IBM's OS/2 is plotted as the main OS to be preinstalled on PowerPC units (except Apple products). Now we have a clear and stable reference platform, and operating system from the launch. OS/2 is renamed as OS/3 for the launch of the new platform, and enables Windows application compatibility as well (OTL: OS/2 Blue Spine) as well as being a full 32bit operating system with a graphical user interface.
IBM's PowerPC products (let's call them the IBM "Aptiva" range) is heavily pushed by IBM into business environments where IBM remains a trusted name. Apple push their PowerPC based range into the home enthusiast range, under their "Macintosh" label. The two-pronged approach dents Intel's efforts to become dominant, and despite Microsoft's Windows 95 achievements, it fails to dominate in the business market where IBM & OS/3 are holding some 2/3 of market share - primarily due to IBM's efforts to cement themselves in position by offering Aptiva workstations, servers, mainframes and software offerings (such as Smartsuite and Notes for office productivity). The included Firewire interface is also regularly used in server rooms as a fast server-to-server interconnect.
Novell later join the alliance, filling the last remaining position that AIM had failed to fill; that of network management with it's Netware systems. Netware, in the face of waning standalone popularity, and it's growing dependence on integration with OS/3, joined the alliance as a first step to Netware-OS/2 integration. Netware largely functioned as OS/3 management - the eDirectory services proved popular in business as a user management tool and method of file/print sharing, and was the first move in IBM's acquisition of Novell's intellectual property, whose share price was plummeting.
Microsoft, while popular with millions of home users, continues to invest in it's networking abilities and announces it's intention to produce "Windows 2000" as the latest incarnation of it's Windows NT lineup - it's version of Windows for businesses, with several new features. The move was it's final gambit in the business market, and proved to be a flop as it never recouped the investment Microsoft poured in to it.
OS/3 and Macintoshes were now popular in the home environment to; Apple appealed to the "cool kids" and enthusiasts, while corporations and suburban parents usually had an IBM machine in the study for work, study and internet.
Microsoft's failed Windows 2000 efforts leave the company as a home user budget operating system; usually popular in developing markets. It is better known now for selling several well known pieces of non-operating system software that are compatible on all three operating systems; MacOS, Windows & OS/x.
The original AIM alliance, under threat from antitrust authorities, now breaks up - it's original purpose of breaking the dual threat of Intel and Microsoft now complete.
The intellectual property now sits in "AIM Inc", who licenses the hardware design and CPU designs to CPU manufactures such as IBM and Motorola (although Cyrix are now a third, niche, manufacturer).
IBM's NOS series (now at NOS/10, marketed as NOS: Vista) is the dominant operating system. The addition of 'N' for networked (or Netware as some ex-Novell employees like to say) brought IBM's operating system fully in to the online world, integrating it in to it's base.
One potential might be the AIM alliance being more successful (Apple-IBM-Motorola). It was formed in 1991. Here we say that negotiations become more successful, and the negotiations around the reference platform are successful; a parallel port is ditched and a Firewire port included instead for external connectivity, but IBM's OS/2 is plotted as the main OS to be preinstalled on PowerPC units (except Apple products). Now we have a clear and stable reference platform, and operating system from the launch. OS/2 is renamed as OS/3 for the launch of the new platform, and enables Windows application compatibility as well (OTL: OS/2 Blue Spine) as well as being a full 32bit operating system with a graphical user interface.
IBM's PowerPC products (let's call them the IBM "Aptiva" range) is heavily pushed by IBM into business environments where IBM remains a trusted name. Apple push their PowerPC based range into the home enthusiast range, under their "Macintosh" label. The two-pronged approach dents Intel's efforts to become dominant, and despite Microsoft's Windows 95 achievements, it fails to dominate in the business market where IBM & OS/3 are holding some 2/3 of market share - primarily due to IBM's efforts to cement themselves in position by offering Aptiva workstations, servers, mainframes and software offerings (such as Smartsuite and Notes for office productivity). The included Firewire interface is also regularly used in server rooms as a fast server-to-server interconnect.
Novell later join the alliance, filling the last remaining position that AIM had failed to fill; that of network management with it's Netware systems. Netware, in the face of waning standalone popularity, and it's growing dependence on integration with OS/3, joined the alliance as a first step to Netware-OS/2 integration. Netware largely functioned as OS/3 management - the eDirectory services proved popular in business as a user management tool and method of file/print sharing, and was the first move in IBM's acquisition of Novell's intellectual property, whose share price was plummeting.
Microsoft, while popular with millions of home users, continues to invest in it's networking abilities and announces it's intention to produce "Windows 2000" as the latest incarnation of it's Windows NT lineup - it's version of Windows for businesses, with several new features. The move was it's final gambit in the business market, and proved to be a flop as it never recouped the investment Microsoft poured in to it.
OS/3 and Macintoshes were now popular in the home environment to; Apple appealed to the "cool kids" and enthusiasts, while corporations and suburban parents usually had an IBM machine in the study for work, study and internet.
Microsoft's failed Windows 2000 efforts leave the company as a home user budget operating system; usually popular in developing markets. It is better known now for selling several well known pieces of non-operating system software that are compatible on all three operating systems; MacOS, Windows & OS/x.
The original AIM alliance, under threat from antitrust authorities, now breaks up - it's original purpose of breaking the dual threat of Intel and Microsoft now complete.
The intellectual property now sits in "AIM Inc", who licenses the hardware design and CPU designs to CPU manufactures such as IBM and Motorola (although Cyrix are now a third, niche, manufacturer).
IBM's NOS series (now at NOS/10, marketed as NOS: Vista) is the dominant operating system. The addition of 'N' for networked (or Netware as some ex-Novell employees like to say) brought IBM's operating system fully in to the online world, integrating it in to it's base.