WI Mirage 4000 built.

Since almost nothing is too good/expensive for nuclear detterence, WI the French decided to build a batch of Mirage 4000s to replace the IVs? It would be considerably more expensive than the Mirage 2000N, but the M2000N two seater has the range and performance disadvantages that come for two seat versions of medium fighters. I think the performance, especially payload/range, of a 2 seater M4000 could tip the balance for highest priority national nuclear-deterrence roles. Once the initial batch was built for nuke roles would follow on batches take advantage of the performance of the 2 seater for the night precision attack roles that saw the development of the F15E, F18D and Mirage 2000N from single seat fighters?
 
The Americans ditched advanced bombers for stupid reasons (the Russians ditched them because it was fighters or bombers, given how much money their Rocket side was sucking up), but the Europeans switched to missiles because the warning time to get bombers off the ground was too low—around 4 minutes.

Keeping bombers in the air is the expensive part (overall bombers are cheaper than ICBMs, and—in the '50s anyway—100 bombers is around 120 fighters cost on an operating basis) and the Europeans, with their low warning time, would have had to keep a sizeable bomber force in the air at all times.

Perhaps if ABM systems are more advanced, or if Russia chooses to go into bombers over ICBMs but otherwise I just don't see something like the Mirage 4000 as very likely.
 
The French built about 35 M2000N-K1 in the 80s soley as nuclear strike planes, replacing the IVs' despite the problems with bombers that you mention. However it must be remembered that at this time the French were developing the ASMP, making it's nuclear bombers more useful.

But the 2 seat M 2000 isn't what you'd call a strategic aircraft, even with bulbous drop tanks and tanker support. The M 4000 on the other hand would be similar to the Tornado or F15E in terms of payload/range making it much more useful as a strategic aircraft in the European context.
 
The French built about 35 M2000N-K1 in the 80s soley as nuclear strike planes, replacing the IVs' despite the problems with bombers that you mention. However it must be remembered that at this time the French were developing the ASMP, making it's nuclear bombers more useful.

But the 2 seat M 2000 isn't what you'd call a strategic aircraft, even with bulbous drop tanks and tanker support. The M 4000 on the other hand would be similar to the Tornado or F15E in terms of payload/range making it much more useful as a strategic aircraft in the European context.

The French were always weird with their military.

The question that then arises—is it worth it? I mean I know the French like to go their own way on most military equipment (which is one reason their per unit cost is something like second to the Japanese) but are they going to have any overseas sales?

Is the Mirage 4000 a competitor to the Strike Eagle (in which just buying F-15E's is an inherently better deal)? A Eurofighter style half generation advance? Can it fit on a French carrier?
 
The French did decide that the M4000 wasn't worth it, and bought M2000N instead. But a medium fighter isn't the best starting point for a capable deep strike aircraft, even the single seat M2000 isn't long legged and the 2 seater carries considerably less fuel.

What I'd suggest is that the French look more toward the capability rather than the cost of the M4000 in a niche role of great national importance and decide to build a batch for nuke work. Once it is in production then other things may follow, such as exports, or extra batches for the French in conventoional long range roles. I personally would compare such a M4000 with the F15E and Tornado, and with the French already paying to get it in service and keen to make deals the price may not such an issue.
 
The air component of the French nuclear triad didn't need long range, because all the intended targets are in Germany...;)
 
The Mirage 2000N's mission is likely a one way ticket, the Mirage 4000 in the same role purchases one farther from home. The 4000 could probably do a much better job than the D since it can carry more, farther without taking a hit to its thrust to weight. This would primarily relagate Mirage 2000 as a medium range interceptor in Armée de l'Air service and it would have to share its to air to ground avionics with the 4000 and 2000N for export orders. This could work somewhat similarly to the F-15/16 hi-lo mix in the USAF.

Export wise I don't see the Mirage 4000 making a big export splash at first, the aircraft would be too expensive for Australia, Canada, or the UK to buy. The only country that could afford them would be Saudi Arabia, who would buy an interceptor variant in the 1980s, followed by an air to ground model in the 1990s. Which in turn, would destabilize the F-15 production line back in the US. The Mirage 2000 would mostly retain most of its exports (Greece, Taiwan, UAE, Peru, India, Egypt, Brazil) since its capable air-to-air machine for its price and doesn't have political strings from the US or USSR attatched to it.

Buying the 4000 is probably going to hurt the Rafale's chances of surviving since further evolution (TVC, AESA, new engines, EO/IR sensors) of the 4000 could have given it parity air-to-air and air-to-ground wise with the latest Flanker and Eagle models for a much smaller cost to the taxpayer than developing the Rafale. There would have been a tug of war between the needs of the AdA, Aéronavale, Dassault and the bean counters. In the post cold war funding era it is likely that it would be the Rafale that would up the pretty technology demonstrator, while the Mirage 4000 would have been the one slugging it out with the Eurofighters, Grippens, Block 52+ F-16s, F-15Ks, F-18E/Fs, Su-30s and MiG-35s of the world for export orders.

Dassault would be in a perilous situation, in a desperate bid to save their baby they might team with a US contractor to get the Rafale built. Vought and Dassault had close ties throughout the 1960s and 1970s, and Vought had done an good job transitioning to from a primary to a secondary contractor in the 1980s without losing its independence. While this does seem unlikely, desperate times call for desperate measures. There was a massive hole left in US naval aviation by the cancellation of the A-12 Avenger II and the Rafale being the newest entry to the competition to replace the A-6E might have stirred some interest. Granted, it doesn't have much of a shot since McDonnell Douglas and Grumman would have raised bloody hell but it would have drawn more attention to the selection of the A-6 replacement and could have repercussions for the Super Hornet and Tomcat. Ultimately, the Aéronavale would have to purchase a Hornet variant to fly off the Clemenceau class/Charles De Gaulle in a massive dent to French pride. Though this is not without irony as the French had laughed Northrop back across the pond when they tried to sell the YF-17 to them. This would push Dassault into the UCAV field earlier and nEUROn might materialize sooner.

If the 4000 had gone into production I think it would have matured nicely with the backing of the AdA and could have gotten orders that the Rafale had lost; primarily, Singapore and South Korea where lacking radar and weapons integration hurt the Rafale. Brazil might also take a shining to it but budget wise a big order couldn't be placed. An evolved Mirage 4000 would also have an excellent chance in the 126 plane MMRCA competition in India or possibly even supplanted the Su-30 MKI.
 
Apart from the 2 crew, night, PGM or nuke missions I doubt the 4000 would compete with the Rafale. Even with the 4000 the fighter, fighter-bomber 2000s, F1s, Jaguars and Aeronavale Etenards would need to be replaced by the Rafale.

The Rafale is another example of a small fighter having it's range and payload cut in order to accomodate a second crewmember to meet the demands of modern war. Like the 2000N it HAS to carry drop tanks on virtually every mission, which eats up performance and pylon space. The considerably bigger 4000 wouldn't have such a drastic need to carry external fuel, and could devote it's pylons to weapons, and keep it's performance closer to brochure.
 

Archibald

Banned
Hello to all!

The Mirage 4000 was an outstanding machine, as good as the Su-27 or F-15.
But France really couldn't afford such machine.

What follow is what happened in real world :)

The 4000 had roots in the ACF, an earlier swept-wing machine which program was cancelled in December 1975.

The day it was cancelled, Dassault went to the Elysée and talked to President Giscard.

It's proposal was at follow : I want to build the 4000 for the AdA, the 2000 being a Mirage III successor for foreign markets.
The AdA truly want a twin-engine fighter.

Giscard on the other hand daced an economic crisis, thus he simply inverted Dassault vision.
He proposed
"Build the 2000 for the AdA and try to sell the 4000 to foreign countries".

Bad idea.

The 4000 was presented to the Iraqis in december 1979 but it was too late.

Later the Saudis show interest, particularly because of Peace Sun clause.
You know, the one saying to Israel "No more than 60 Saudis F-15"
(Which also explain why Saudi Arabia bought Tornado ADV)

Discussions started in 1987 and were nearly successful... until the F-15 lobby won.
End of the game!

(more to come)
 

Archibald

Banned
So here's a way of putting the 4000 in French service.

It's a scenario I've imagined three years ago for the Whatif Modelers board. In fact its was my entry on this forum...

It is (quite paradoxically) based on the Mirage F1E or Mirage F1 M53.

When the M53 turbofan program started in 1968, the need of a supersonic testbed arose.

The engine first flew on a Caravelle airliner in july 1972. The supersonic testbed was to be a modified Mirage F1, named the F1 M53.
It flew in december 1973.

At the same period the Belgian air Force needed a new interceptor. Discussions started with Dassault, on the wake of the Mirage V contract of 1967.
Then the FAB shown interest in the much more powerful M53 variant. Three more countries followed, including Netherlands.

General dynamics entered the competition with its F-16. The Deal of the Century was born...

And the F-16 won hands down.

(the POD is here!)

The Aeronavale sought a successor to its Etendard IV for long years now.

The Jaguar M had been the main forerunner. It interested the Aeronavale which really wanted to share development costs with the AdA.

but the Jaguar M was a lost cause. It was underpowered, and its twin reheat would have taken a toll on Clemenceaus deflectors.

Thus more machines were assessed. They were

- the Mirage G
- A naval Mirage F1

Both were rejected because of their engines. The TF-306 had been scrapped, and the Atar 9K50 lacked power.

This machines were more interceptors than ground pounder; But the Aeronavale also dreamt of a successor to its Crusaders, which had been the last to roll out of Vought production line in 1965.

Others contenders were the A-4 Skyhawk, A-7 Crusader, and a massive upgrade of the Etendard.

The Aeronavale really loved the Mirage F1 aside its engine. Thus in july 1975 the service shown interest in the F1 M53.

The requirement was for 113 machines : 71 would replace the Etendard IV, and 42 would be Crusaders successors.

Sadly this was still not enough to justify development cost of the F1 M53.
(more to come)
 

Archibald

Banned
The F1 M53 was named F1E for the deal of the century.
E stood for "Exportation. "
Others F1E exist, still for exportation, with the Atar engine.

The Armée de l'air had shown, too, interest in the F1 M53.
Sadly it conflicted with the atar-powered F1s entering service since 1973.


In fact the last forty F1C-200 received by the AdA around 1977 would have been powered by the M53.

The french governement hoped this move would help the F1E against the YF-16.
But the US governement had anounced the buying of no less than... 2000 machines. Fifty times more than AdA F-1E !

This F1M53 were to be the low-end of AdA squadrons. The high end was the ACF, a twin M53 swept-wing interceptor.

The ACF was a derivative of the G8, its programs had started in may 1972. But the machine quickly proved too costly for a French economy crippled by the 1973 oil crisis.

the defeat of the F1 M53 at the deal of the century marked a turn. The ACF was cancelled in December 1975.

When Marcel Dassault proposed the 2000 and 4000 to Giscard, on this fatidic 18th december 1975, Giscard was puzzled.

He knew that the AdA could afford neither the ACF nor the 4000.

But suddendly he asked why on earth should the 2000 been developed, when a F1M53 could fulfill the role much quickly and at less cost ?

The AdA Mirage IIIC were already old and weary, and their successor the F-1C was found underpowered because of its old Atar engine.
Developing the 2000 would meant having a third interceptor, probably not before the mid 80's.

Dassault then mentioned the Aeronavale request for a multirole F1M53.
It also - nastily - stabbed the Jaguar in the back, saying that AdA pilots disliked the machine

Giscard postponed the decision for some days, calling for another rendez-vous with Dassault early January 1976.
He would met AdA and Aeronavale chiefs to know their needs better, and see if the F1 M53 could fulfil the role they wanted.
 
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Archibald

Banned
Now the 4000 is coming.

the day was January 21th 1976. the day when Concorde entered commercial service.

When Marcel Dassault get out of the Elysée Palace, he had a large smile on its face.

Giscard had just given him another deal of the Century.

The F1 M53 was to replace many AdA and Aeronavale types, excepted one : the Mirage IV nuclear bomber.

The Mirage 4000 had been chosen as the next french nuclear bomber, at least for the late 80's.

Top priority would now be standardisation of Aeronavale and AdA fleets around the F1M53.

Crusaders, Mirage F1C, every Mirage III variant, and Jaguars were to be stopped, or sold abroad progressively.

The Crusaders went to the Philippine.
Large stocks of Mirage IIIs went to South America.
Jaguars were sold to India.
The F1C were sold to Iraq and South Africa.

Program of the super Etendard was stopped.

113 Mirage F1E entered Aeronavale service, and 400 others filled the ranks of the AdA.

Production and funding peaked in 1978, then decreased.

They decreased just in time to replace the Mirage IV by Mirage 4000. A small batch of them, but more orders were to come.

the massive standardization around a cheap and proven interceptor helped the AdA a lot.
Lots of funds were available from 1982 for the 4000.

Abu Dhabi was the first country to buy the new machine. not much, just 12 of them.
But that was enough to convince Iraq, which sought desperately a machine to beat the Iranian tomcats and their AIM-54.

The french thus proposed an A2A, downgraded variant of the ASMP ramjet-powered missile.
This proved lethal.

Saudi Arabia followed in 1987, funding the 4000-5 variant with RDY.

French involvment in the 4000 prevented the country entering the negociations on the european interceptor, which started in 1978.
Germany, England and Italy rapidly found a compromise (in 1982) but spain, which had notbeen part of the Torndao, was left outside.

Thus in 1982 Spain cancelled its F-18 order, and went for the 4000 instead.
 
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Archibald

Banned
some dates...

The F1 M53 entered service in 1977- 78 in both french armies.

The first 4000s which rolled out of Dassault production line in 1983 were export machines, for Spain and Abu Dhabi.

The 4000N replaced the Mirage IV in July 1986, taking nuclear alert with the ASMP.

The AdA finally bought a small batch of Mirage 4000-5 in 1992 to complement its fleet of F1M53.

Gulf War 1 in 1991 saw an incredible waste : french 4000 killed some Iraqis 4000 on the ground. The F1 M53 nevertheless bore the brunt of the A2G and CAS duties in this war.
French and Saudis 4000s patrolled together the Iraqis skies.

Both countries secured a deal on the 4000-9 variant in 1995. It was a true multirole 4000, with conformal tanks and RDY-2 radar.
 
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I like this, more for the survival of the F1M53 than the survival of the Mirage 4000. The 4000 was a nice plane, but the F1M53 was IMO truly a wasted opportunity
 

Archibald

Banned
Many observers think that the 2000 followed the F-1 too close, and cut its career.

Same thing for the 2000-5 and Rafale, at least in french service. The 2000-5 were needed in the early 90's, but now they dupplicate the Rafale in the interceptor role... :mad:

The fact is that in the 80's, Dassault was developing highly-sophisticated F1s for Iraq, and Mirage 2000 variants at the same time!

Same thing for recon : there's no Mirage 2000R because the F1 was chosen instead, in 1981.

That's why it sounds more logical to have F1M53 instead of 2000.
Of course for Dassault things were slightly different, because the 2000 was far more advanced than the F1E. Mainly FBW, but also other goodies.

Here the more-advanced-Mirage using FBW is the 4000.
 
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