WI: Minoans Survive Mycnenean Invasions?

it has been argued that the Phoenicians emerged as the primary traders in the Early Iron Age precisely because the preceding dominant naval powers (Myceneans and possibly Cypriots) had vanished, together with their Imperial overlords.
In the Bronze Age the "Phoenicians" (most authors call not them like this in that age, but does not matter much) were not a naval power, and were not founding colonies. ITTL, Crete might even be able to prevent them to rise to prominence, IF it survives the trouble with the Acheans that is pretty likely to come sooner or later.
If the Minoan retain naval dominance in the Eastern Med, they'd likely found something akin to colonies; however, IOTL Mediterranean colonization does not appear to have occurred before about 1000 AD at earliest, and mostly much later. There is a lot that could happen prior to that.

1000 AD? Carthage and Utica were found at least a 1000 years before 1000 AD. How exactly will the Minians dominate the Phoenicians whenever they will inevitably have to deal with Greeks/Mycenians? The Minoans are in a very difficult position. That is why I advocate them doing what the Phoenicians did and colonize thus strengthening their culture and language and giving them new outlets for trade. All in all though without it it is only a matter of time before Minoa is split on three sides by people with larger populations and bases on land.
 
I think he meant to say 1,000 BCE. Going off that, Carthage wasn't founded until around the 9th century BCE at the earliest, and Utica probably in the 10th century BCE.
 
Lets assume that the Minoans figure out a way to avoid a Mycenean conquest have then have 500 years to recover, perhaps not to pre eruption levels, what would the have to do?

Probably have rulers wily enough to "bluff" Greece for 100 years more while they recover. It looks like they did something like this in OTL because Santorini erupted in 1627 BCE and Knossos fell around 1450 BCE.

Let say by 1350, they are recovered enough to hold their own, restore part of their trade network and naval supremacy. At this point they would have to look outward, probably getting resources like wood (Crete at this point had a deforestation problem) from elsewhere. That would mean conquest, trade or colonization.

OTL the Minoans were no great shakes at warfare, but they probably had to have gotten better had they survived that long. So I think some kind of all three would be in order, probably further west.

Climate change in the 1100's. If they control the seas or maybe them and the Myceneans do jointly.They have to deal with the sea peoples. OTL some of these people seem to be Aegean in origin (though not all).

Lets assume Sea Peoples are deflected from Crete due to Minoan Naval Prowess. They could go to mainland Greece, maybe Lebanon. These hits hurt the Proto Phoencians and the Mycenean Greeks. Crete Survives, though it probably doesn't get by unscathed. Still the culture is Ectocretan, basically post Minoan successor.

1000-900 Lebanon is weaker and has Assyrians to worry about. They are facing a trade network that is already established rather than crushed like they did in OTL. Ectocretans set up colonies to the west. Greece is still in its dark age.

Further on, someone probably takes down Crete as a power. But it still has a greater cultural "echo". Perhaps there is a "Minoan Carthage".

Other butterfly thoughts-OTL Crete supplied 90 ships according to Homer in the Trojan War. This was a large contingent (think Britian as part of NATO proportionately). IttL Minoan Crete sits Troy out. Trojan victory?

Minoans, in order to avoid conquest by the Sea peoples ally with them. They overwhelm the forces of Ramses the 3rd, conquering lower Egypt.
 
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