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The Minoans on Crete were essentially the Phoenicians mixed in with the Cretans. Archaeological evidence agrees with this. They were extremely prosperous and controlled the seas and trade all across the Mediterranean. They weren't a war like people, but when the Mycanaeans started raiding their shipping, they made war ships and drove them from the seas.

The Minoans survived the first eruption, and rebuilt their magnificent civilization from the ashes. The second earthquake, they nearly survived, had the Mycanaeans not landed on Crete. Instead of fight, the Minoans (Phoenicians) hopped ship and sailed back to their cities in Phoenicia, Byblos, Tyre, Gaza, Sidon, etc.


Now in this scenario, the Minoans survive the second eruption and continue on controlling the seas and trade. This would have profound effects on western civilization, as all the incredible feats the Phoenicians accomplished later, and how much they affected events in the Levant and Middle East/Egypt since they returned, would be butterflied away. That means all their colonies in the western Mediterranean (assuming they don't do something similar as the Minoans) including Carthage, would be butterflied. You can even butterfly away the Greek civilization as we know it, and with it,t he Romans. Egyptian, Hitite, and Mesopotamian history would be forever changed, as it was the Phoenicians that brought on the invasion of the Sea Peoples that caused the demise of the Hittites and the weakening of the Egyptians.
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