WI: Military Coup In South Africa in Mid-1970s

I would tend to agree with you on that one, Ivan. It is worth noting, however, that the western half of SA (i.e. most of the Cape Province) has a quite small black population, and that didn't really start to grow until people started migrating to the Cape looking for jobs in the 1980s. IMO if they had split it up for that the whites kept the important areas (the Johannesburg-Pretoria area, Pietersburg, the mining complexes around there, the East Rand and southern suburbs of Joburg including Vereeniging and Vanderbijlpark) and gave up much of the rest of the Transvaal and Natal, the new black states would probably have been economically viable. But as you point out, politically many of the Afrikaners would have gone crazy.

As for South Africa and Iraq, you're forgetting that Saddam, while he was focusing on Iran, was also looking at building WMDs. The Israelis were afraid of him, too, and it is well known that the Israelis were observing the mayhem from the Iranian side - they say Saddam as more dangerous than Khomeini, which considering Khomeini's rhetoric says a lot. Israel killed Gerald Bull (nobody has proven they did it, but who else would have?) because he was building a supergun for Saddam, and they bombed Iraq's nuclear reactor (after making extensive attempts to sabotage it before it was built) because they feared Saddam having an A-bomb. South Africa wasn't particularly rich in the 1980s, which means getting stuff from Saddam would likely mean technological help of some sort - and providing that to him would make Jerusalem extremely POed. You can't work with both if you are a nation in South Africa's position.
 
Ivanotter,

I agree with all your statements of what apartheid was trying to achieve.
WI Verwoerd had applied his intellect and realised that it wasn't going to guarantee continued white dominantion. Could he have thought there was another way; to create a 'homeland' with a white majority?
 
The Mann: I unfortunately think you are right. Iraq would not have been a option, and the israeli link ws too valuable. damn.

Duncan: the white homeland was an option and somehow AWB was interested. But I gad theis feelign it woudl be a 'homeland' constituting the best part of SA, like 70% of all industrial land and that means Gauteng, Mpumalanga (newcastle, SASOLBURG, etc, etc).

Having the white minorty to go into a rural set-up? mmmmmm, no

Now: I have managed to write my little essay: please look at the thread:

Nuclear war in Southern Africa, SA fights the russians

A bit lenghty, but I finally managed to type it all up.

It is thanks to all the input on this thread here: THANKS people, I enjoy this here
 
More food for thought.

1: The discussion on a hypothetical Saddam Hussein/South African military junta alliance had me thinking of other Middle East dictators that just might enter into an alliance of convenience with SA. How about... Moammar Qaddafi? IOTL he was one of white SA's greatest international foes; is there any way to alter this? He wasn't completely a leftist, as he was willing to ally himself with the military regime in Argentina (the reasons why, I'm not sure). If this SA junta for whatever reason positions itself against the U.S. or Britain (it wouldn't be hard for it to do the former, considering Jimmy Carter's obsession with apartheid), does this encourage any ME strongmen to take a second look at it? (Granted, the easiest way for this SA to get ME assistance is to become anti-Israel, which is pretty close to ASB.)

2: How is the white SA public reacting to the "dirty war" against any and all white dissent? Probably anywhere from 10 to 40,000 of its citizens have simply vanished, without a trace (presumably either summarily executed or having suffered torturous deaths in secret police interrogation centers). A very disproportionate number of these victims will be British/Jewish. Will the Boer white majority accept this bloodshed as necessary for the survival of the "Western Christian nation", or will it start to lose stomach?

3: South African military spending will be much greater in this timeline than in ours (and it was already great for a country its size). What kinds of awesome military service gets to see development and action? Here are a few ideas:

--a SA ICBM program as a deterrent to Russia
--a wholly indigenous fighter based upon, but completely new from, the Mirage family
--a SA MBT that replaces the Centurion/Olifant, possibly developed along with the Merkava
--a missile-defense system

4: This SA is well on its way to getting the bomb, and will do so faster than IOTL. Will it share this nuclear technology with anybody?

5: Here's a real wildcard. Everyone has been talking about Russia getting involved over Angola and Mozambique. How about Brazil? These are fellow Portuguese-tongue nations and Brazil might be getting very frightened of being hemmed-in by hostile Chile and Argentina to its own south and this militant South Africa-on-steroids just across the Atlantic. This matter is only exacerbated if this SA has allied with Brazil's archenemies Chile and/or Argentina. It can't be blind to the fact that SA is rapidly developing nuclear weapons. Brazil is a third-world nation but it's better developed than most: it has a pretty big industry, a decent weapons program (remember the Osorio MBT?), and enough reasonably modern and educated citizens. Most importantly, it has a gigantic population. Does Brazil try to get into the former-Portuguese-colony mix in any way?
 
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