WI: Milder Versailles?

Deleted member 1487

Johnrankins said:
At the very least the government shouldn't have backed the Black Hundred.
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Given that the Black Hand overthrew the government and installed their choice royal family its hard to get that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_Coup_%28Serbia%29

And then formed a conspiracy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narodna_Odbrana

And were conducting an extensive terror campaign in Bosnia while placing their people throughout the government:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Hand_(Serbia)#1914
The Black Hand was displeased with Prime Minister Nikola Pašić. They thought he did not act aggressively enough towards the Pan-Serb cause. They engaged in a bitter power struggle over several issues, such as who would control territories Serbia annexed in the Balkan Wars. By this point, disagreeing with the Black Hand was dangerous, as political murder was one of their tools.
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Halagaz

Johnrankins said:
At the very least the government shouldn't have backed the Black Hundred.
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The "Black Hand" was allied to the opposition, not the government in Serbia. There was not much backing going on there.

I guess you could say they should have tried harder to stop the "Black Hand" (this name isn't fully accurate as the actual leader and half the membership of the Black Hand died in the Balkan Wars and never officially re-organized).
 

Johnrankins

Halagaz said:
The "Black Hand" was allied to the opposition, not the government in Serbia. There was not much backing going on there.

I guess you could say they should have tried harder to stop the "Black Hand" (this name isn't fully accurate as the actual leader and half the membership of the Black Hand died in the Balkan Wars and never officially re-organized).
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I admit I remembered the wrong name. :eek: In any case the Black Hand had the crown prince and a number of army officers as supporters. That sounds like at least some government backing to me.
 

Halagaz

Johnrankins said:
I admit I remembered the wrong name. :eek: In any case the Black Hand had the crown prince and a number of army officers as supporters. That sounds like at least some government backing to me.
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Some army officers - true, but not the crown prince. He supported the 1914 cabinet against the Black Hand in exchange for getting close enough to court a Russian princess.
 

Faeelin

Mikestone8 said:
Britain doesn't have to collapse - just have enough problems that it becomes unable to bankroll its continental allies.

Similarly, the CP don't have to be "better off" than the Entente in any absolute sense - just enough relatively stronger that they narrowly win in spring 1918 rather than narrowly losing..
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How did the Central Powers narrowly win in 1918?

Tooze, amusingly, makes much the same point that I do in the Deluge; Britain had a huge benefit from American aid, but it used that to outproduce and outperform the Central Powers.
 

Tibi088

Halagaz said:
To keep "their" "nationalists" in line, the Serbian government would need to have literal superpowers and a long range mind control ray.

The Bosnian Serbs would continue doing what they did until something happened, with or without backing from Serbia itself, just as they did before 1914. The Austro-Hungarian regime's failure to address social problems in Bosnia and inspire a minimum of loyalty among its Serbs bit it on the butt; instead of asking itself some deep questions, the A-H government unfortunately went feral, decided to destroy a neighboring state and massacre a large quantity of both countries' citizens, and ended up devastating the entire continent.
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Thats only one of the problems with Serbia. First Serbia was a de facto vassal of Austria till 1803. Around 90% of Serbian import and export was with Austria and the regime was very friendly. Than the dynasty changed in a most violent manner - the new one wasnt accepted in Europa for a very long time. Than came the tariff war which Austria lost and that meant that Serbia became economically independent. In 1908 during the annexations crisis the Serbs nearly attacked Austria, and i think its not hard to understand how Austria felt threatened by the looked down upon Serbia. And Serbia was very provocative towards Austria for the years to come. Im sure that Austria would have attacked Serbia in 1908 and most likely during the Balkan wars if he had German backing or Russian neutrality.

Its not too hard to understand Austria:
They (Austria) are supposedly a great power and there is puny little Serbia constantly (for years) provoking them while playing on that big brother Russia will protect them if they go too far. And thats what finally happened.

I think many of the leaders of Austria had thought similar to this before WWI. It was very frustrating for them, they wanted to put Serbia in his place for years but Russia and Germany prevented them. Thats why the DoW was so fast and they didnt leave time for meditation.
 

Halagaz

Tibi088 said:
Thats only one of the problems with Serbia. First Serbia was a de facto vassal of Austria till 1803. Around 90% of Serbian import and export was with Austria and the regime was very friendly. Than the dynasty changed in a most violent manner - the new one wasnt accepted in Europa for a very long time. Than came the tariff war which Austria lost and that meant that Serbia became economically independent. In 1908 during the annexations crisis the Serbs nearly attacked Austria, and i think its not hard to understand how Austria felt threatened by the looked down upon Serbia. And Serbia was very provocative towards Austria for the years to come. Im sure that Austria would have attacked Serbia in 1908 and most likely during the Balkan wars if he had German backing or Russian neutrality.

Its not too hard to understand Austria:
They (Austria) are supposedly a great power and there is puny little Serbia constantly (for years) provoking them while playing on that big brother Russia will protect them if they go too far. And thats what finally happened.

I think many of the leaders of Austria had thought similar to this before WWI. It was very frustrating for them, they wanted to put Serbia in his place for years but Russia and Germany prevented them. Thats why the DoW was so fast and they didnt leave time for meditation.
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I mostly agree.

As for the 1903 coup in Serbia, it was actually carried out with Austrian approval and the knowledge of the Austrian government. Austria and Russia were the first countries which recognized the new (old) Serbian dynasty, already in 1903. Great Britain was the last, in 1906.

The pro-Austrian parties in Serbia didn't disappear in 1903, but from there on they had to actually compete in elections and they lost hard, due to their own corruption and Austria's actions.

The tariff war and the annexation of Bosnia made the biggest changes to relations between Austria and Serbia; both of these were initiated by Vienna, although in some cases Serbia acted provocatively as well.
 

Deleted member 1487

Halagaz said:
I mostly agree.

As for the 1903 coup in Serbia, it was actually carried out with Austrian approval and the knowledge of the Austrian government. Austria and Russia were the first countries which recognized the new (old) Serbian dynasty, already in 1903. Great Britain was the last, in 1906.

The pro-Austrian parties in Serbia didn't disappear in 1903, but from there on they had to actually compete in elections and they lost hard, due to their own corruption and Austria's actions.

The tariff war and the annexation of Bosnia made the biggest changes to relations between Austria and Serbia; both of these were initiated by Vienna, although in some cases Serbia acted provocatively as well.
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Source please?
 

Halagaz

wiking said:
Source please?
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For which part?

Re: Austrian foreknowledge of the 1903 coup in Serbia:

Austro-Hungarian Finance Minister and Governor of Bosnia, Kallay, was informed about the Serbian coup plot thanks to an under-secretary who attended the conspirators meetings in Vienna's Café Imperial. (Sarajevo - R. W. Seton-Watson, page 26)

Mueller, the chief of the Ballhausplatz Press Bureau, was also in contact with the Serbian conspirators (Kriegsursachen - Milos Bogicevic, p.15). The memoirs of one of the senior 1903 conspirators (the politician Vukashin Petrovic) confirm that Mueller was in contact with both wings of the plot.

Re: Austria and Russia's calm and non-hostile reaction to the 1903 coup: Sarajevo - same; Apis, the Congenial Conspirator - David MacKenzie, page 51.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Tibi088 said:
Its not too hard to understand Austria:
They (Austria) are supposedly a great power and there is puny little Serbia constantly (for years) provoking them while playing on that big brother Russia will protect them if they go too far. And thats what finally happened.

I think many of the leaders of Austria had thought similar to this before WWI. It was very frustrating for them, they wanted to put Serbia in his place for years but Russia and Germany prevented them. Thats why the DoW was so fast and they didnt leave time for meditation.
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A large part of the problems in the Balkans is AH pretending to be a Great Power when she really wanted and relying on Germany and Britain to protect her pretensions. The British grow tired around the Armenian massacres (Salisbury being an exception) but Austria was never the equal to Russia

She got Bismarck to protect her (biggest mistake by the Germans) instead of him knocking some sense into Franz Joseph

But the summary is- Austria and Serbia had been playing tit for tat for years and the Austrians had designed a despicable political system that generated hatred among a large portion of its citizenry. Germany managed to prop it up but the place was a disaster
 

espion80

... and in place of 1,000 (more) words...

Here's the basic map.

Europe.JPG
 
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