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The recent fracas over Bercow has got me to thinking about the circumstances in which he became Speaker in 2009 (I appreciate that this is a WI which will very much appeal only to the PoliBrits).

Speaker Martin misjudged both the mood of the public and the mood of MPs by getting het up about the circumstances in which the information leading to the expenses scandal of 2009 was leaked to the Telegraph, rather than the fact of the scandal itself. As a result, Douglas Carswell laid down a motion of no-confidence in the Speaker, Martin resigned and the Labour Party, incensed by what appeared to be a Tory-inspired plot to remove a Labour Speaker, voted for Bercow as the Speaker sure to piss off the Tories the most.*

But what if Martin hadn't so badly misjudged the mood music and wasn't subject to a vote of no confidence? It may be that he would have stood down anyway before the 2010 election, with perhaps the thought at the back of his mind that he would let a Labour majority chose the next Speaker rather than what appeared to be a likely Conservative dominated Parliament after the next election. Let us assume (and I'm not aware that he intending on resigning before the 2010 election) that he doesn't do this, and either stands down at the 2010 election, leaving the new Parliament to elect a new Speaker, or resigns relatively early into the new Parliament.

Again assuming that Martin continuing as Speaker and Bercow remaining on the Tory backbenches does not materially alter the result of the 2010 election, and we end up with identical or almost identical seat and party totals. On the basis that the Tories are by some way the largest party, their favoured candidate is likely to be in poll position to take the Speakership. This seems likely to be Sir George Young, who was runner up to Bercow in the 2009 Speakership election. He joined the Shadow Cabinet after Bercow was elected Speaker and it became plain there was not going to be a vacancy in that position for several years. Without a new Speaker before 2010, Sir George may hold himself in readiness. With the Tories at 306 seats and the vast majority of them (presumably) prepared to vote for him, he would surely be the favourite - and if not him, perhaps one of the other Tory candidates like Sir Alan Hazelhurst.

In these circumstances, does Bercow even stand for the Speakership? Could he still snatch the Speakership from Sir George's grasp by trying to corral Labour, Lib Dem and a handful of Tory MPs behind him? Who would the favoured Labour candidate be, if there is one?

On Bercow himself, if he does not win, it would be interesting to speculate as to what he might do as a Conservative MP. There is some speculation that he stood for Speaker because he didn't want to remain a Conservative MP. Certainly he was moving to the liberal-left end of the political spectrum at a rate of knots throughout the 00s and indeed, appears to have continued to do so since he became Speaker. He might well have either stood down mid-term, or defected to Labour. Not sure when he might defect to Labour - Cameron seems to have utterly despised him, but their politics are a little more in tune, whereas May and Bercow don't appear to have the same personal animosity despite being further apart politically. This is assuming that Bercow remaining a backbencher doesn't butterfly away the 2015 election victory, Brexit and May's election as party leader of course...

EDIT *Carswell, a Tory MP at the time, instigated the motion of no confidence but was also noted as being a Bercow supporter in the subsequent Speakership election. Labour MPs might have been barking up the wrong tree if they voted in Bercow as vengeance for the defenestration of Martin.
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